Magic vs. Cavaliers: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 5

Riley Thomas•_riley8

21d

The Orlando Magic against the Cleveland Cavaliers has been a tale of two stories. Initially, it looked like the Cavaliers were headed to a dominant series win after beginning 2-0 while winning by an average margin of 12.0 points per game (PPG). The Magic completely flipped the script in Orlando, winning the last two games by 30.5 PPG.

This series is now knotted at 2-2. FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA playoff odds have shifted, listing Cleveland with -176 odds to win the series. The Cavs winning the series 4-3 has the shortest odds among the correct series scores (+190).

There's a good chance that this one goes seven games. Game 5 is crucial as 84.0% of teams who took 3-2 leads won their series, per Land of Basketball.com. Which team will grab the upper hand tonight?

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Magic-Cavaliers Betting Odds

Date and Time: Tuesday, April 30th at 8:00 p.m. ET

Spread: Cavaliers -5 (-110)

Total: 201.5

Moneyline:

Magic: +166
Cavaliers: -198

Magic vs. Cavaliers Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

Magic:
- nERD: 57.0 (13th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 112.7 (22nd)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.2 (3rd)
- Pace: 97.2 (26th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 51-31
Cavaliers:
- nERD: 58.8 (10th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 114.6 (18th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.6 (7th)
- Pace: 97.5 (24th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 39-42-1

Magic vs. Cavaliers Best Bet

Magic +5 (-112)

Taking a side of the spread could be challenging. The home team has dominated this series, but it's also difficult to buy into the Cavs after their no-show in Orlando. The spread is set at 4.5 points in favor of Cleveland; this is in line with numberFire's game projections, which has the Cavaliers winning 104.77-99.99.

Two categories could help us pick a side. The victor has had their way on the boards and from three-point land. In Cleveland's two wins, they won the rebounding battle by 10.0 boards per game. The Cavs also shot 29.0% from three compared to the Magic's 23.6% in Game 1 and Game 2.

The same trend applied to Orlando's wins. They won the glass by 16.5 boards per game, and they had 20 offensive rebounds over the two-game span compared to Cleveland's 7. The Magic's three-point shooters finally woke up, converting 39.7% of their attempts from beyond the arc while the Cavs shot 23.5%.

Cleveland has carried poor three-point shooting numbers this entire series, and Orlando gives up the fourth-fewest three-point attempts and makes on the season. There's a solid chance that the Cavs' three-point shooting struggles continue.

The Wine and Gold also have the worst perimeter defense, allowing the ninth-most three-point attempts. Over the last three games, the Magic have taken 36.3 three-point shots each contest compared to their season average of 31.4 (third-fewest).

When it comes to rebounding, these same issues plagued the Cavaliers in the 2023 postseason. Plus, Orlando is simply the better rebounding team. Cleveland has the ninth-lowest offensive rebounding percentage and eighth-highest defensive rebounding percentage. Orlando carries the seventh-highest offensive rebounding percentage and second-highest defensive rebounding percentage.

Both squads are among the top seven slowest paces of play. Possessions are like gold in these slow-paced postseason battles that are controlled by exceptional defense. The Magic have the possession advantage as the better rebounding team.

After thoroughly dominating the boards over the last two games, I'm expecting Orlando to carry it to Game 5. Give me the Magic to cover on the road.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.