Louisville vs SMU College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for ACC Tournament

The No. 6 seed Louisville Cardinals (22-9, 11-7 ACC) and the No. 11 seed SMU Mustangs (20-12, 8-10 ACC) meet in the ACC tournament Wednesday at Spectrum Center, tipping off at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Louisville vs. SMU Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
• Game time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN
• Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
• Arena: Spectrum Center

Louisville vs. SMU Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Louisville win (65.5%)

Take a look at the betting trends and insights below before placing a wager on Wednesday's Louisville-SMU spread (Louisville -6.5) or total (164.5 points).

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Louisville vs. SMU: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Louisville has won 16 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 15 times.
• SMU has compiled a 14-18-0 ATS record so far this year.
• As a 6.5-point favorite or more in 2025-26, Louisville is 14-7 against the spread compared to the 1-2 ATS record SMU puts up as a 6.5-point underdog.
• The Cardinals have done a better job covering the spread at home (10-7-0) than they have in road affairs (3-8-0).
• The Mustangs' winning percentage against the spread at home is .444 (8-10-0). On the road, it is .364 (4-7-0).
• Louisville is 7-11-0 against the spread in conference play this season.
• SMU's ACC record against the spread is 8-11-0.

Louisville vs. SMU: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Louisville has won in 15, or 71.4%, of the 21 contests it has been named as the moneyline favorite in this year.
• The Cardinals have a mark of 13-1 in contests where oddsmakers favor them by -250 or better on the moneyline.
• SMU has won 25% of the games this season it was the moneyline underdog (3-9).
• The Mustangs have played three times as a moneyline underdog with odds of +202 or longer, and fell in each game.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Louisville has a 71.4% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Louisville vs. SMU Head-to-Head Comparison

• Last season, Louisville was 65th in the country on offense (78.5 points scored per game) and 89th on defense (69.5 points allowed).
• Louisville collected 34.6 rebounds per game and conceded 30.2 boards last season, ranking 47th and 114th, respectively, in the nation.
• With 13.9 assists per game last season, Louisville was 148th in the nation.
• In terms of turnovers, Louisville was 150th in the nation in committing them (10.9 per game) last year. It was 93rd in forcing them (12.2 per game).
• SMU averaged 79.9 points per game (40th-ranked in college basketball) last year, while surrendering 71.3 points per contest (152nd-ranked).
• Last season SMU pulled down 34.7 rebounds per game (43rd-ranked in college basketball) and gave up 29.0 rebounds per contest (53rd-ranked).
• SMU averaged 15.9 dimes per game, which ranked them 42nd in the nation.
• SMU committed 11.5 turnovers per game (221st-ranked in college basketball). It forced 12.0 turnovers per contest (112th-ranked).

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