Louisville vs SMU College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for ACC Tournament

The No. 6 seed Louisville Cardinals (22-9, 11-7 ACC) are taking on the No. 11 seed SMU Mustangs (20-12, 8-10 ACC) in the ACC tournament on Wednesday at Spectrum Center, at 2:30 p.m. ET airing on ESPN.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Louisville vs. SMU Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
• Game time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN
• Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
• Arena: Spectrum Center

Louisville vs. SMU Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Louisville win (64.5%)

Before making a wager on Wednesday's Louisville-SMU spread (Louisville -6.5) or total (163.5 points), check out the betting insights and trends below.

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Louisville vs. SMU: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Louisville has put together a 16-15-0 ATS record so far this year.
• SMU has compiled a 14-18-0 record against the spread this year.
• Louisville covers the spread when it is a 6.5-point favorite or more 66.7% of the time. That's more often than SMU covers as an underdog of 6.5 or more (33.3%).
• At home, the Cardinals sport a better record against the spread (10-7-0) compared to their ATS record in away games (3-8-0).
• Against the spread, the Mustangs have performed better at home (8-10-0) than away (4-7-0).
• Louisville's record against the spread in conference play is 7-11-0.
• SMU has eight wins against the spread in 19 ACC games this year.

Louisville vs. SMU: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Louisville has been the moneyline favorite in 21 games this season and has come away with the win 15 times (71.4%) in those contests.
• The Cardinals have a mark of 13-1 in contests where oddsmakers favor them by -275 or better on the moneyline.
• SMU has been the underdog on the moneyline 12 total times this season. SMU has gone 3-9 in those games.
• The Mustangs have not won a game when it entered play as a moneyline underdog with odds of +220 or longer in three chances.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Louisville has a 73.3% chance of pulling out a win.

Louisville vs. SMU Head-to-Head Comparison

• Louisville is outscoring opponents by 13.4 points per game with a +416 scoring differential overall. It puts up 85.9 points per game (16th in college basketball) and gives up 72.5 per contest (138th in college basketball).
• Ryan Conwell's team-leading 18.7 points per game ranks 66th in college basketball.
• SMU's +222 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 6.9 points per game) is a result of putting up 85.0 points per game (20th in college basketball) while allowing 78.1 per contest (301st in college basketball).
• SMU's leading scorer, Kevin Miller, ranks 46th in the country, putting up 19.5 points per game.
• The 36.5 rebounds per game the Cardinals average rank 21st in college basketball, and are 6.3 more than the 30.2 their opponents pull down per contest.
• Sananda Fru is 260th in college basketball play with 6.2 rebounds per game to lead the Cardinals.
• The Mustangs win the rebound battle by 3.7 boards on average. They record 34.3 rebounds per game, 65th in college basketball, while their opponents pull down 30.6.
• Samet Yigitoglu averages 7.9 rebounds per game (81st in college basketball) to lead the Mustangs.
• Louisville ranks 20th in college basketball with 107.2 points scored per 100 possessions, and 63rd in college basketball defensively with 90.4 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• The Mustangs rank 47th in college basketball averaging 104.1 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are 192nd, allowing 95.6 points per 100 possessions.

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