Liberty vs Missouri State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for CUSA Tournament

The No. 9 seed Missouri State Bears (15-17, 8-12 CUSA) will square off in CUSA tournament against the No. 1 seed Liberty Flames (25-6, 17-3 CUSA) on Wednesday at Von Braun Center, beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Liberty vs. Missouri State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
• Game time: 6:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN+
• Location: Huntsville, Alabama
• Arena: Von Braun Center

Liberty vs. Missouri State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Liberty win (73.3%)

Take a look at some betting trends and insights for Liberty (-6.5) versus Missouri State on Wednesday. The over/under is set at 143.5 points for this game.

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Liberty vs. Missouri State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Liberty is 12-16-0 ATS this season.
• Missouri State has put together a 17-12-0 record against the spread this season.
• Liberty covers the spread when it is a 6.5-point favorite or more 37.5% of the time. That's less often than Missouri State covers as an underdog of 6.5 or more (71.4%).
• The Flames have covered the spread in a lower percentage of their home games than road games. They have covered six times in 13 games when playing at home, and they've covered six times in 12 games on the road.
• This year, the Bears are 7-8-0 at home against the spread (.467 winning percentage). On the road, they are 9-4-0 ATS (.692).
• Liberty's record against the spread in conference play is 8-12-0.
• Against the spread in CUSA play, Missouri State is 14-7-0 this year.

Liberty vs. Missouri State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Liberty has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 25 games this year and has walked away with the win 20 times (80%) in those games.
• This season, the Flames have come away with a win 12 times in 15 chances when named as a favorite of at least -260 or better on the moneyline.
• Missouri State has gone 3-10 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 23.1% of those games).
• The Bears have a 1-6 record (winning just 14.3% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline underdog of +210 or longer.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Liberty has a 72.2% chance of pulling out a win.

Liberty vs. Missouri State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Liberty was 119th in the country in points scored (75.9 per game) and 11th-best in points conceded (63.4) last season.
• Last year, Liberty was 291st in the country in rebounds (30.1 per game) and 195th in rebounds allowed (31.4).
• Liberty was 21st-best in the country in assists (16.7 per game) last year.
• Last year, Liberty was 35th in the country in turnovers committed (9.5 per game) and 146th in turnovers forced (11.6).
• With 68 points per game on offense, Missouri State ranked 318th in the country last season. On defense, it ceded 70.9 points per contest, which ranked 143rd in college basketball.
• With 27.5 rebounds allowed per game, Missouri State ranked 13th-best in college basketball. It ranked 318th in college basketball by averaging 29.5 boards per contest.
• Last season Missouri State ranked 279th in college basketball in assists, delivering 12.2 per game.
• Missouri State was 327th in college basketball with 13 turnovers per game last year. Meanwhile, it ranked 79th with 12.4 forced turnovers per game.

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