Liberty vs Missouri State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for CUSA Tournament

The No. 1 seed Liberty Flames (25-6, 17-3 CUSA) face off against the No. 9 seed Missouri State Bears (15-17, 8-12 CUSA) in CUSA tournament Wednesday at Von Braun Center, beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET. Both teams will look to take one step closer to securing an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Liberty vs. Missouri State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
• Game time: 6:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN+
• Location: Huntsville, Alabama
• Arena: Von Braun Center

Liberty vs. Missouri State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Liberty win (72.6%)

If you plan to place a wager on Liberty-Missouri State outing (in which Liberty is a 5.5-point favorite and the total has been set at 144.5 points), here are some betting insights and trends for Wednesday's game.

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Liberty vs. Missouri State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Liberty is 12-16-0 ATS this season.
• Missouri State has covered 17 times in 29 chances against the spread this year.
• When the spread is set as 5.5 or more this season, Liberty (6-12) covers a lower percentage of those games when it is the favorite (33.3%) than Missouri State (5-3) does as the underdog (62.5%).
• In home games, the Flames sport a worse record against the spread (6-7-0) compared to their ATS record in away games (6-6-0).
• The Bears' winning percentage against the spread at home is .467 (7-8-0). Away, it is .692 (9-4-0).
• Liberty has covered the spread eight times in 20 conference games.
• Against the spread in CUSA play, Missouri State is 14-7-0 this year.

Liberty vs. Missouri State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Liberty has been the moneyline favorite in 25 games this season and has come away with the win 20 times (80%) in those contests.
• This season, the Flames have been victorious 13 times in 16 chances when named as a favorite of at least -245 or shorter on the moneyline.
• Missouri State has compiled a 3-10 record in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 23.1% of those games).
• The Bears are 1-7 (winning just 12.5% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline underdog of +198 or longer.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Liberty has a 71% chance of pulling out a win.

Liberty vs. Missouri State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Liberty's +256 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game) is a result of scoring 78.5 points per game (114th in college basketball) while giving up 70.2 per contest (77th in college basketball).
• Brett Decker Jr.'s 16.9 points per game lead Liberty and are 161st in college basketball.
• Missouri State's +44 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 1.4 points per game) is a result of putting up 75.3 points per game (193rd in college basketball) while allowing 73.9 per outing (183rd in college basketball).
• Keith Palek III paces Missouri State, putting up 17.7 points per game (112th in college basketball).
• The Flames lose the rebound battle by 4.6 boards on average. They record 26.3 rebounds per game, which ranks 360th in college basketball, while their opponents grab 30.9 per outing.
• Zach Cleveland paces the Flames with 7.4 rebounds per game (110th in college basketball play).
• The Bears rank 271st in the nation at 30.3 rebounds per game. That's similar to the 30.8 their opponents average.
• Michael Osei-Bonsu tops the Bears with 7.3 rebounds per game (124th in college basketball).
• Liberty's 109.5 points per 100 possessions on offense rank sixth in college basketball, and the 98 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 257th in college basketball.
• The Bears average 97.7 points per 100 possessions on offense (184th in college basketball), and concede 95.9 points per 100 possessions (206th in college basketball).

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