Is Dak Prescott Worth an Early-Round Draft Pick in Fantasy Football?

For most of the 2010’s the “Late-Round Quarterback” draft strategy, popularized by JJ Zachariason, was among the most dominant draft strategies a fantasy football manager could use to gain an edge over their leaguemates.

That strategy was so successful in part because the differences in fantasy scoring between the top-drafted quarterbacks each year and those available off of the waiver wire were pretty marginal -- oftentimes quarterbacks on the waiver wire could even out-produce their higher-drafted counterparts. This made drafting quarterbacks with premium fantasy picks a very risky gambit.

The fantasy landscape has shifted in recent years, though.

Quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts have been able to put up such impressive -- and consistently projectable -- fantasy numbers in recent years that they have become worth selecting highly in fantasy football leagues again.

Heading into the 2023 season, we have multiple quarterbacks with average draft positions (ADPs) in the first few rounds of fantasy drafts. But what happens if you miss out on those presumed top quarterbacks? And does Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, with an ADP of 140.0 in FanDuel best ball leagues (QB11), fit into successful draft strategies?

The Ups and Downs of Dak Prescott

Few quarterbacks have toed the line between being elite or average for fantasy football like Dak Prescott.

In his early years, the Mississippi State standout was a shining example of how you could fade early-round quarterbacks in fantasy football in favor of their late-round counterparts. Prescott combined solid efficiency as a passer with an ability to pick up bonus yards -- and touchdowns -- on the ground as a rusher.

Despite going undrafted in fantasy leagues in 2016 he finished that season as the QB7 in most common scoring systems and then followed that season up with finishes as the QB10 and QB14 in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

Things haven’t been the same for him since his 2019 campaign, though, when he entered the season with an ADP as the QB17. Prescott caught fire that year, finishing the season as the QB2 overall and showcasing just how much value hitting on a late-round quarterback provides to a fantasy football squad. That 2019 season was the last time Prescott could slip into the later portions of most fantasy drafts, and he has carried an ADP inside the top 12 quarterbacks ever since.

Whether or not he has lived up to his steep draft capital for fantasy football in the seasons since then has been a different story.

A brutal ankle injury truncated a 2020 season that had Prescott on track to shatter passing records. In the following year, he mostly met expectations and finished as the QB8 overall in total points, and in 2022, injuries again limited the talented Prescott.

But what matters more than where he finishes each season relative to his peers is how he produces relative to his peers. The total points gleaned from the QB8 can vary wildly from season to season, and he needs to put up serious fantasy production to pay off the draft capital it takes to get him onto your fantasy squads.

How Good Does a QB Have to Be?

In a world where we can draft the top quarterbacks and be confident in them producing like stars, there’s an added layer of pressure on other mid-round options at the position.

As fantasy managers, we can’t exactly expect the QB10 to suddenly become the QB1 in fantasy. Obviously, it’s great if/when they do -- finding that kind of value in drafts can vault a squad to the top of their league.

The bigger concern when taking a quarterback highly in fantasy drafts is whether or not he can justify the cost of drafting him. If you take a quarterback in the seventh round of your fantasy draft as the QB10 and he finishes with the same number of points as a quarterback that went undrafted, your team is going to be in trouble.

We have seen Prescott produce elite fantasy numbers in several seasons, but 2022 was not one of those seasons.

Excluding games where he didn’t get to play a full share of snaps, Prescott averaged 17.6 fantasy points per game. While he came off the boards at QB8 on average in 2022 fantasy drafts, quarterbacks such as Kirk Cousins (17.2), Geno Smith (18.5), and Trevor Lawrence (17.9) produced as well as -- if not better than -- Prescott despite going several rounds later than him in most leagues (or undrafted).

If you took Dak Prescott over productive receivers or running backs in the middle-rounds of 2022 fantasy drafts, you likely suffered for that decision.

Can He Return to Form?

Despite last year’s disappointing output, there’s still optimism for Prescott heading into the 2023 season. His standard-scoring ADP of 78th overall puts him in the middle of the sixth round of 12-team league drafts, so there’s still a real opportunity cost to drafting him this season.

Should we expect him to pay off that draft capital, though?

The Cowboys made some pretty major changes this offseason that could affect Prescott’s output. The team mutually agreed to part ways with former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has generally produced league-average offenses in his coaching career. The Cowboys’ offensive success in Moore’s time there makes this feel like a downgrade, but Prescott’s own production shouldn’t be too impacted by the move.

Also departing from the team was former starting running back Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott was still a serviceable back in his last two seasons with the Cowboys, but the team’s stubbornness in prioritizing him over his more explosive teammate -- Tony Pollard -- no doubt left points on the field. By assigning fewer inefficient plays to Elliott in the rushing game, the Cowboys’ offense should naturally take a slight step forward in 2023 -- even if Pollard can’t fill every running back role that Elliott previously did.

The addition of wide receiver Brandin Cooks is a bonus. Although it wasn’t easy being a 1,000-yard receiver for the Houston Texans in recent years, the speedy wideout still accomplished that feat in two of his past three seasons. He couldn’t quite overcome the odds on a league-worst Texans team last season -- producing 57 catches for 699 yards and 3 touchdowns in 13 games -- though he still led the team in most receiving stats despite the circumstances and missed games.

Prescott’s best seasons came when throwing to a stocked offensive group, and the trio of Cooks, CeeDee Lamb, and a now-healthy Michael Gallup should be enough for him to put up solid numbers through the air.

Gallup was clearly not healthy for most of the 2022 season. He rushed onto the field for the start of the year despite the late-season ACL tear that ended his 2021 campaign, and the stats reflected that. Gallup had career-lows in average depth of target (11.1), catch rate (52.7%), and yards after the catch per reception (2.7). Having him healthy and helping on the outside should be a huge boost for the Cowboys’ passing game.

All in all, it’s fair to be cautiously optimistic about Prescott producing another solid season of fantasy scoring.

Is Dak Prescott Actually a Rushing Quarterback?

There’s one skill that most of the top fantasy quarterbacks can predictably leverage into top-notch fantasy output each and every week: their rushing.

Where most leagues grant 0.04 fantasy points per passing yard and 4 points per passing touchdown, those rates jump up to 0.10 and 6, respectively, on the ground.

Prescott was sneaky-productive on the ground in his early seasons, but after his brutal ankle injury, the rushing dropped off.

He averaged 19.7 yards and 0.13 rushing scores per game in his first three seasons. Since his injury, those marks are just 11.7 and 0.07, respectively.

In positive news, the rushing touchdowns could tick back up after the team moved on from their goal-line back, Elliott.

Though he scored 18 in his first three seasons, Prescott has only scored 8 over the past four years and only 2 since 2021. He just hasn’t been a part of the Cowboys’ plans at the goal line in recent seasons.

The team gave Elliot 16 carries inside the opposing team’s five-yard line (the third-most in the league) last year, but Pollard finished the 2022 season with just 6 such carries.

The team could look back in Prescott’s direction at the goal line this year -- especially given the rise of the “Tush Push”.

Dak Prescott 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Unlike a lot of the late-round quarterback options available in fantasy drafts this offseason, Prescott has actually produced at an elite level in the past.

When he’s at his best, he can keep pace with the best fantasy quarterbacks in the league -- and getting a quarterback that can match Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes’ production in the seventh round would certainly be a value.

If you think the Cowboys’ changes on the offensive side of the ball could help push Prescott back into the upper echelon of fantasy football quarterbacks, he could certainly be worth drafting at the current cost this offseason.

If you find yourself on the fence about taking Prescott in the sixth round of your fantasy drafts -- over players like David Montgomery, Marquise Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, or A.J. Dillon -- consider waiting at the quarterback position and targeting players like Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Jordan Love, or even Kyler Murray (with an insurance pick) in later rounds.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.