Hypothetical Trade Destinations for Seth Lugo: Could the Cubs Land the Veteran Pitcher?

With the MLB All-Star break in the rearview mirror, all eyes are on the MLB trade deadline, which will arrive on July 31. There are a handful of players who have been mentioned in trade rumors recently, and Seth Lugo has been discussed as a potential target for teams that are looking to bolster their rotation.

Across his 17 starts and 101.0 innings pitched before the All-Star break, Lugo posted a 4.08 SIERA, 4.06 xFIP, and 21.9% strikeout rate. Those numbers don't tell the entire story, though, as Lugo has the 18th-best SIERA (3.25), 15th-best WHIP (0.92), and 13th-highest strikeout rate (30.0%) over his last five starts since June 17.

Lugo is in the final year of his contract with the Kansas City Royals and holds a player option in 2026, so there's a chance he opts out in the offseason and elects to hit free agency even if he's traded. Keeping all of that in mind, let's discuss a few teams that make sense as a potential landing spot for the 35-year-old hurler.

Note: Odds are subject to change after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Seth Lugo Landing Spots

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs are the first team that comes to mind when listing teams that desperately need to improve their rotation if they want to make a serious push in the postseason. While the Cubs' bats are sporting the 4th-best wOBA (.334), 3rd-best wRC+ (117), 3rd-best ISO (.190), and 4th-lowest strikeout rate (20.0%), their starting pitchers are logging the 13th-worst SIERA (4.14), 11th-worst xFIP (4.21), and 8th-lowest strikeout rate (20.4%) in baseball.

Nevertheless, the Cubs are currently carrying the seventh-shortest odds (+1300) to win the World Series with an impressive 57-39 record. Those odds would undoubtedly trend upward if Chicago were able to add some much-needed help to their pitching staff.

Acquiring Lugo would also allow the Cubs to replace either Colin Rea (4.48 SIERA and 4.47 xFIP) or Jameson Taillon (4.27 SIERA and 4.25 xFIP) in their starting rotation. There were reports that Chicago inquired about Lugo's availability with Kansas City weeks ago, so we know he's certainly on the Cubs' radar ahead of the deadline.

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are another team that has been heavily linked to Lugo with the deadline looming. Even amid an injury to Yordan Alvarez and the departures of Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman in the offseason, the Astros sit atop the AL West with a 56-40 record.

Despite Houston's starters producing the second-best SIERA (3.61), second-best xFIP (3.51), fifth-best WHIP (1.18), and third-highest strikeout rate (25.1%), they're being propped up plenty by the duo of Hunter Brown (3.00 SIERA and 2.85 xFIP) and Framber Valdez (3.28 SIERA and 3.02 xFIP). While Brandon Walter (2.97 SIERA and 2.91 xFIP) has been a pleasant surprise for the Astros in his first seven starts, it's risky for Houston to place much trust in either Colton Gordon (3.99 SIERA and 3.82 xFIP) or Lance McCullers (4.41 SIERA and 4.57 xFIP) down the stretch.

Along with hoping Alvarez can come back and provide some much-needed power as a lefty, the Astros realize they'd be wise to see if they can strengthen their rotation ahead of a potential playoff run.

San Diego Padres

In an ultra-competitive NL West, the San Diego Padres are sitting in second place with a 52-44 record, putting them 5.5 games back of the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers. Up to this point, the Padres have had to scrap for wins, as neither their lineup nor starting rotation have been overly productive through their first 96 contests.

Along with San Diego's offense registering the 8th-worst wOBA (.304), 15th-worst wRC+ (98), and 3rd-worst ISO (.129) in the league, their starters have accrued the 12th-worst SIERA (4.18) and 7th-worst xFIP (4.27). Even though Dylan Cease (3.41 SIERA and 3.43 xFIP) and Nick Pivetta (3.34 SIERA and 3.49 xFIP) are both notching a strikeout rate of 28.1% or better, they are both in the 23rd percentile or worse in barrel rate allowed.

Making the move from Kauffman Stadium to Petco Park would be a massive upgrade for Lugo, as he'd be going from the stadium with the 7th-highest park factor to the venue with the 21st-highest park factor over the last three seasons. While the Padres hope a lineup with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Luis Arraez can figure things out, it'd be smart for them to see if they can replace someone like Randy Vasquez (5.83 SIERA and 5.92 xFIP) in their rotation.

Toronto Blue Jays

Aside from the NL West, the AL East is proving to be a tough division once again, and the Toronto Blue Jays are currently pacing the division with a 55-41 record. For the most part, the Blue Jays have leaned on their bats, with their lineup earning the 10th-best wOBA (.321), 10th-best wRC+ (105), and lowest strikeout rate (17.7%) in baseball.

Meanwhile, Toronto's starting pitchers have been a bit underwhelming, recording the 15th-worst SIERA (4.12), 8th-worst xFIP (4.24), 10th-worst WHIP (1.32), and 14th-lowest strikeout rate (21.9%). The Blue Jays recently got veteran Max Scherzer back from injury recently, but relying on him to remain healthy and provide consistent production on the mound is certainly risky given the number of injuries he's dealt with in recent years.

Landing Lugo would likely lead to the Blue Jays moving Eric Lauer (3.53 SIERA and 3.93 xFIP) back to the bullpen or allow Toronto to deploy a six-man rotation in hopes to keep some of their experienced hurlers healthy ahead of the playoffs.

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