MLB

How Many Games Will the Twins Win in 2024?

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
How Many Games Will the Twins Win in 2024?

The Minnesota Twins are looking to build off a 2023 campaign that saw them advance to the ALDS before losing to the Houston Astros in four games. Amid winning the AL Central with an 87-75 record last season, the Twins are hoping for another winning season in 2024.

Following an impressive finish in 2023, what is the Minnesota Twins' win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Before Opening Day arrives, the Minnesota Twins' win total is set at 87.5 with the under sitting at -120 odds.

Let's dig into what we can expect from the Twins this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Minnesota Twins Win Total Odds

Minnesota Twins Over/Under 87.5 Wins

  • Over: -102
  • Under: -120

Why the Twins Could Win Over 87.5 Games (-102)

When watching the Twins, it's clear that they are a team who is reliant on their dominant pitching. During the 2023 season, Minnesota's starting rotation -- led by Pablo Lopez -- combined for the second-best skill interactive earned run average (3.73 SIERA), the second-best WHIP (1.16), and the best strikeout rate (26.3%) in the majors.

Minnesota's bullpen was also impressive, logging the 10th-best SIERA (3.85), the seventh-best WHIP (1.25), and the eighth-best strikeout rate (25.2%). Jhoan Duran is expected to be the Twins' go-to closer to finish games after the hard-throwing righty tallied a career-best -- and team-best -- 27 saves in 2023.

With Minnesota losing veteran Sonny Gray from their rotation, they'll need Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober to continue making positive developments on the mound. On top of that, the Twins are hoping to have Anthony DeSclafani -- who they acquired in the Jorge Polanco trade -- available to begin the season as he deals with elbow soreness in spring training.

While the pitching staff fanned batters with ease, Minnesota's bats also owned the worst strikeout rate (26.6%) last year. The Twins still enjoyed the seventh-best weighted on-base average (.327 wOBA) and the fifth-best ISO (.184) at the plate in 2023.

Aside from wanting healthy seasons from veterans Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Max Kepler, the Twins are leaning on young infielders Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis. After recording the 19th-best wOBA (.315) against left-handed pitching a season ago, Minnesota added Carlos Santana and Manuel Margot as options in the lineup.

In a mediocre division, the Twins have the shortest odds to win the AL Central (-125) entering the 2024 season. Assuming the top of the rotation can remain healthy and the young bats can step up, Minnesota could have nearly 90 wins for the second straight year.

Why the Twins Could Win Under 87.5 Games (-120)

By earning 87 wins in 2023, the Twins achieved 87-plus wins for just the third time since 2010. While Lopez is viewed as the long-term ace for Minnesota, Gray led the team in wins above replacement (5.3 WAR) last season, and his production on the mound won't be available in 2024 as he is now a member of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Similar to most teams, all it takes is one injury to one of the Twins' premier pitchers to alter the outlook of their rotation. Lopez has pitched 180-plus innings in back-to-back years, but can he handle another massive workload for Minnesota?

It goes without saying that a healthy version of Buxton would be a welcome sight for the Twins this season. Having confidence in Buxton staying healthy has been tough with the dynamic outfielder failing to appear in 93-plus games or register 383-plus plate appearances since 2017.

Despite the AL Central not being considered a well-rounded division, the Twins have won the division in back-to-back years just twice since 2009. Even if Minnesota secures another division title in 2024, they may not even need 88-plus wins to pace the division in wins.

With weeks to go until Opening Day, FanGraphs has the Twins projected for just an 84-78 record in the upcoming season, supporting this wager.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.