Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Saturday, October 3

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Spencer Jones (+540)
• Jonathan Aranda (+630)
• Jackson Chourio (+520)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Spencer Jones (+540)

Yankees at Rays, 6:31 p.m. ET

Gerrit Cole versus Drew Rasmussen is a dang good pitching matchup. Despite that, two of my favorite dinger props today come from the New York Yankees-Tampa Bay Rays clash.

Let’s start with Spencer Jones.

The lefty has big-time pop, homering 14 times in 233 Triple-A plate appearances before getting the call and then launching 11 jacks in 289 plate appearances in The Show. He posted a 42.0% hard-hit rate overall, and Jones put up a 45.5% hard-hit rate and 47.9% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage. Despite the short porch at Yankee Stadium, nine of Jones’ 11 tanks came on the road.

Rasmussen is more homer-prone against left-handed hitters (0.92 HRs/9) than righties (0.49), and the Yankees know him well after facing him four times in the regular season.

Home Run Prediction: Jonathan Aranda (+630)

Yankees at Rays, 6:31 p.m. ET

Jonathan Aranda is at his best against RHPs, and I like his matchup against Cole.

While Cole fared well in his return from injury, posting a 3.54 SIERA, he didn’t miss that many bats, with his 9.6% swinging-strike rate ranking as his worst mark since 2017. He struggled against lefty bats, giving up 1.78 homers per nine in the split along with a 49.3% fly-ball rate. Of the 22 homers Cole surrendered in 2026, 15 came against lefties.

That sets up well for Aranda, who registered a .364 wOBA, 42.3% hard-hit rate and 41.0% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage. He finished the regular season with 22 bombs, 19 of which came versus RHPs.

Aranda also ended the year on a high note, posting a .374 wOBA with three home runs over his final 43 plate appearances.

Home Run Prediction: Jackson Chourio (+520)

Padres at Brewers, 8:30 p.m. ET

Jackson Chourio hit a career-best 27 homers this season, and he’ll have the platoon advantage today against Robbie Ray.

Against left-handers this season, Chourio amassed a .413 wOBA and nine homers over 171 plate appearances. Over his last 74 plate appearances to end the regular season, Chourio hit four homers with a .442 wOBA, so he enters the postseason in a groove.

Ray has been a solid pitcher for a long time, but his numbers fell off a cliff this year, including a 4.98 SIERA and 19.9% strikeout rate. He has especially struggled against right-handed hitters, pitching to a 5.27 xFIP and 49.6% fly-ball rate.

That makes this a really nice matchup for Chourio, and I’m into these long odds.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.