Home Run Props Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Friday (Sept. 4)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Eugenio Suarez (+390)
• Michael Busch (+430)
• Alec Burleson (+350)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Eugenio Suarez (+390)

Brewers at Reds, 6:11 p.m. ET

Eugenio Suarez has an appealing batted-ball profile against southpaws, and the Milwaukee Brewers are starting lefty Shane Drohan.

With the platoon advantage in 2026, Suarez’s results haven’t always been there, but he owns a 45.2% hard-hit rate and 42.9% fly-ball rate in the split. He’s been hot lately, too, racking up a .370 wOBA and six tanks in August — by far his best month of the campaign.

Like everyone who pitches for the Brewers, Drohan is good. With that said, all 10 long-balls he’s allowed this year have come to right-handed hitters, and this game being at homer-happy Great American Ball Park — with the wind blowing out slightly to center — makes it a tough spot for the Brewers’ lefty.

Home Run Prediction: Michael Busch (+430)

Cubs at Marlins, 7:11 p.m. ET

While Michael Busch hasn’t been able to repeat his power output from 2025, he’s in a good matchup today against Janson Junk.

A year ago, Busch launched 34 bombs, 30 of which came against right-handers. Versus RHPs this season, Busch has put up a 41.0% fly-ball rate.

The matchup with Junk is a huge part of Busch’s appeal today.

Junk flashed some upside earlier this year, but that’s all gone down the drain as he’s ended up struggling mightily to the tune of a 4.64 SIERA and 6.3% swinging-strike rate. Lefties have torched him, with Junk permitting a .351 wOBA in the split.

Once Junk is out of the game, he’ll hand the ball to a Miami Marlins bullpen that sits sixth-worst in xFIP over the past 30 days (4.55).

Home Run Prediction: Alec Burleson (+350)

Cardinals at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Alec Burleson takes his breakout season to Coors today for a date with RHP Ryan Feltner.

Burleson’s .352 wOBA is a career-best number, but he actually deserves better, with his expected wOBA up at .374. He’s got a 40.4% hard-hit rate overall — another career-best clip — and he’s mauling righties en route to a .402 wOBA and 42.1% hard-hit rate in the split.

Feltner is the owner of a 5.00 SIERA and 16.7% strikeout rate. He’s allowed 1.81 homers per nine at Coors this year, including six total long-balls surrendered across his last three home starts.

The Colorado Rockies‘ bullpen is unlikely to be much better as it ranks dead last in xFIP over the past 30 days (5.11).

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.