MLB

Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 6/20/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Yainer Diaz To Hit a Home Run (+400)

The Houston Astros are rocking a solid 5.06 implied run total and have a favorable matchup for some home runs.

The Astros are on the road to take on the Chicago White Sox, which brings us Guaranteed Rate Field as the backdrop for today's game. This is a big plus for hitters because this checks in as the third-best park for home runs this season.

The White Sox will have Chris Flexen on the bump today, a pitcher we love to attack for homers. This season, Flexen has allowed a .398 SLG, .324 wOBA, 4.90 xFIP, 44.3% fly-ball rate, and 33.3% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters.

This brings me to Yainer Diaz, who might not be a household name but has good numbers to work with.

He's hit five of his seven homers against righty pitchers this season, so we're in the favorable split for him. For the season, Diaz comes in with a 90 wRC+, .156 ISO, and 13.5% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers.

Looking into his Statcast data from Baseball Savant, we can see several batted balls over 95 mph that went for over 350 feet but didn't end up as home runs.

He's crushing the ball right now but not getting the results on the stat sheet. With a matchup against a fly-ball pitcher such as Flexen, Diaz is in a spot to put one over the ball with that power.

I'll add Diaz To Record an RBI (+100), too.

Lane Thomas To Hit a Home Run (+420)

A soft matchup for the Washington Nationals could see them get some offense going today.

The Nats are hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks, who will send Ryne Nelson to the mound this afternoon. Nelson is struggling with a lot of things this season and is a great pitcher to target for the long ball.

This year, Nelson has allowed a .573 SLG, .428 wOBA, 4.42 xFIP, 0.71 HR/9, 35.8% fly-ball rate, and 46.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

For a few reasons, I expect Nelson to start allowing more home runs to righties as the season goes on. The league average versus right-handed hitters is 1.04 HR/9, 37.6% fly-ball rate, and 30.7% hard-contact allowed.

Nelson is on par with the fly-ball rate but is allowing significantly more hard contact and that has somehow resulted in fewer home runs allowed.

That is going to flip at some point, which brings me to Lane Thomas.

Thomas has three home runs over his last five games and is getting hot at the plate after a bit of a slow start this season and some time on the Injured List.

His season-long numbers don't jump off the page, but his stats from June have looked much better with a 90 wRC+, .182 ISO, 37.5% fly-ball rate, and 45.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers at home.

Nelson is due for some negative regression, and Thomas is trending upward in recent weeks -- simple as that.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.