Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 5/30/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Kevin Pillar To Hit a Home Run (+450)

The Los Angeles Angels are at home to close out their series against the New York Yankees, where home runs could be on the menu tonight.

With some suspect pitching on both sides, the runs could pile up early and often tonight, so let's jump in.

The Yankees will have Carlos Rodon on the mound tonight, a southpaw who struggles with righty hitters this season. So far, Rodon has allowed a .426 SLG, .324 wOBA, 4.82 xFIP, 1.44 HR/9, and 51.7% fly-ball rate. This has led to Rodon allowing eight homers against righties, while only one to lefties.

This is the split to target, so we'll turn to Kevin Pillar, who's in the midst of a hot streak, with hits in 11 straight games. Pillar comes in with a 234 wRC+, .508 wOBA, .324 ISO, 36.7% fly-ball rate, 36.7% hard-contact rate, and 18.2% HR/FB ratio versus lefties.

Pillar is cookin' at the plate right now and the matchup against Rodon is certainly one that can help extend that streak. I'll add Pillar To Record an RBI (+135), too.

Riley Greene To Hit a Home Run (+630)

With a good matchup and intriguing odds, Riley Greene of the Detroit Tigers is worth considering tonight.

The Tigers are on the road to visit the Boston Red Sox, giving us a solid hitter's park as a backdrop for some offense tonight. The Sox will send Nick Pivetta to the bump, a pitcher who can struggle with fly balls and home runs.

This season, Pivetta has a bit of a smaller sample size but has allowed a .400 SLG, 1.84 HR/9, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 38.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. If we look back to last season for a larger sample size, he allowed a .509 SLG, 2.48 HR/9, 42.3% fly-ball rate, and 38.5% hard-contact rate in the same split.

It's all in line with what we want to see, so let's turn to Riley Greene for a homer. Greene comes in rocking a 134 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .208 ISO, 34.3% fly-ball rate, and 20.0% HR/FB ratio versus righties.

With a very short right field wall, Greene could knock one out easily with this favorable matchup. I'll add, Greene To Record an RBI (+155), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.