Fantasy Football: Should Offseason Drama Push Drafters Away From Stefon Diggs?

Buffalo Bills wideout Stefon Diggs has been a mainstay near the top of the fantasy football leaderboards for several years, and there’s not much standing in the way of him finishing as one of the game’s premiere fantasy wideouts in 2023. The Bills are once again poised to take down the AFC East (you can see their odds on the FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL divisional betting odds market here) with Diggs leading their high-flying passing offense.

Early fantasy drafts have Diggs’ ADP around 15th overall and as the WR5. He might be one of the best values available near the top of the second round in drafts.

Fantasy rankings and projections come from numberFire.

Stefon Diggs Overview

2022 Fantasy Points: 208.6

2023 Projected Fantasy Points: 207.0

2023 numberFire Ranking: WR6

2023 Projected Stats:

• Targets: 167.8
• Receptions: 109.5
• Receiving Yards: 1,457.2
• Receiving Touchdowns: 10.3

Stefon Diggs 2023 Fantasy Outlook

A History of Dominance

It’s fun to draft the exciting new players in the league each year, but winning fantasy drafts is a much more exciting prospect. Diggs’ history of elite production makes him a winning pick year in and year out.

His connection with quarterback Josh Allen has made the pair one of the best duos in the league. Analysts and fans questioned Allen’s place in the league before he had the opportunity to throw passes to Diggs, and others doubted Diggs’ ability to sustain a passing offense without support prior to his arrival in Buffalo. Both players proved the doubters wrong while becoming two of the most sought-after assets in fantasy football drafts each year.

In each of their three seasons together, Diggs and Allen have combined for at least 100 receptions, over 1,200 receiving yards, and at least 8 touchdowns. In his worst season in Buffalo, Diggs finished with 234 FanDuel fantasy points. That mark would have ranked 13th-best among all non-quarterbacks in the league last year – just a few spots behind his own finish as the ninth-most productive player in 2022.

A Nose for the End Zone

A big reason for Diggs’ repeated success in fantasy leagues has been his ability to score touchdowns. It sounds simple; draft the guys who score touchdowns. However, Diggs’ consistency at putting the ball in the end zone is among the game’s elite. Through the last three seasons, only five players have caught more touchdowns than Diggs (29). Only three receivers have scored more over the last two seasons, too. He’s had no fewer than eight in a season since joining the Bills in 2020 and has scored more each year since that first season with the team.

It helps that the Bills are one of the most aggressive teams in the league at throwing the ball once they get to the red zone. Over the past three seasons, Allen has ranked sixth, fourth, and seventh in total pass attempts inside the 10-yard line. Naturally, a lot of those looks have gone Diggs’ way. Diggs has drawn the second and fourth-most targets inside the 10-yard line over the last two seasons, catching 13 of 27 looks for 9 scores on those opportunities.

Getting those opportunities in the red zone helps give Diggs the ability to produce spiked fantasy production in any given week. All the Bills – one of the best offenses in the league – need to do is get the ball near the opponents’ end zone, and Diggs’ chances of scoring a touchdown skyrocket.

The Bills’ penchant for throwing close to the end zone already gives Diggs’ touchdowns total a high floor. Stefon Diggs' touchdown prop shows -550 odds to score at least six this season on the FanDuel Sportsbook, but the high volume of red zone opportunities gives Diggs a near-unrivaled opportunity to lead the league in receiving touchdowns. He is listed at +1400 (the eighth-best odds) to lead the entire league in receiving scores. That’s the kind of upside you simply can’t get outside of the first few rounds of any fantasy draft.

A Build-Your-Own Deep Game

Diggs hasn’t just been a high-volume touchdown scorer; he’s also arguably the best deep ball receiver in the entire NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, Diggs was tied for the best receiver in the league on targets that traveled at least 20 yards through the air. Last year, he caught 14 such targets, converting them into 514 yards and 4 scores.

It wasn’t his first rodeo as a deep receiver, either. His true breakout season with the Minnesota Vikings had Diggs drawing his average target a whopping 14.9 yards down the field. The Bills don’t use him as a pure deep receiver like the Vikings did, but he has still finished within the top-12 players in the league in deep targets over the past three seasons. Besides touchdowns, explosive plays are the most efficient and effective way to produce spiked fantasy production in a given week. Diggs is not just a master at putting the ball in the end zone, but he’s also elite at generating explosive plays.

Putting the Two Together

We already know that Diggs’ rare skillsets make him one of the safest picks in fantasy drafts year-in and year-out. But those skillsets also put him in a position to create league-winning stat lines in 2023.

In his first season with the Bills, Diggs put up absurd yardage (95.9 yards per game) and finished with 8 touchdowns. In the following year, his yardage took a bit of a hit (72.1 per game), but his touchdown production ticked up to 10 on the season. Last year, he bounced back in the yardage department (89.3 per game) while scoring 11 touchdowns. So what happens if you get 2020 receiving yardage numbers with a spike in his touchdown production? You get the WR1 in fantasy – and very likely a trophy for winning your fantasy football league.

Therefore, he is a true triple-threat of fantasy football production. He moves the chains for his offense by catching a ridiculous amount of passes. He creates spiked production through explosive plays at one of the best rates in the league. Plus, he scores touchdowns like no one’s business.

That combination of skills has kept him near the first rounds of fantasy drafts in recent years but also makes him one of the few players in the league capable of taking down the WR1 title for the 2023 season. He plays on one of the best offenses in the league that should be making frequent visits to the red zone. He’ll be the biggest reason they make it that far down the field, and the most likely player to score once they do.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.