Fantasy Football: Should Dak Prescott Go Earlier in Fantasy Drafts?

Although he hasn't quite shed the sting of another early playoff exit, Dak Prescott is coming off the best season of his career for the Dallas Cowboys.

Prescott threw for 4,516 yards (third-most in the NFL) and 36 touchdowns (most), all while tossing just 9 interceptions, the third-lowest mark in his career.

He led Dallas to a 12-5 record and placed second in NFL MVP voting.

What's in store for Prescott in the upcoming season, and where should he be on our fantasy football draft board?

Dak Prescott Fantasy Football Outlook

Prescott Through the Years

Say what you will about Prescott's 2-5 postseason record, but he has consistently rewarded fantasy football managers with a great return on their investment, and that's what really matters here.

In his rookie season, Prescott held a 19.8 average draft position (ADP) at quarterback and 139.0 overall ADP (per FantasyPros). He finished his freshman campaign with the sixth-most points in half-PPR scoring among quarterbacks.

Here's a look at Prescott's QB draft stock in the first four years of his career: 19.8 ADP, 11.3 ADP, 18.2 ADP, and 16.3 ADP. Now here's a look at how he finished at the position in that same span: QB6, QB10, QB10, and QB2.

It was a great stretch to be a Prescott backer, but the resultant spike to 3.6 ADP at the position and 47.0 overall ADP in 2020 came hand-in-hand with a season-ending ankle injury, limiting him to just five games. Prescott managed his most fantasy points per game in that shortened campaign, though.

Last season, Prescott was back to his productive ways. He held a 22.7 ADP at quarterback and 88.0 overall ADP heading into the season. He finished as QB3, behind only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.

Will Prescott manage to be a value on draft boards this go-around?

According to FantasyPros' consensus ADP data, Prescott currently owns an 8.5 ADP at quarterback and 61.0 overall ADP.

Can Dallas' Offense Sustain Itself?

In 2023, the Cowboys threw the ball on 59.29% of plays (11th-highest in the NFL) and ran at just a 40.71% rate.

Tony Pollard, who nabbed 252 carries for Dallas, walked in free agency, joining the Tennessee Titans.

Dallas' running back room now consists of Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke spent an inefficient year with the New England Patriots before re-joining the Cowboys on a 1-year, $3 million deal.

Unproven and potentially washed options in the run game should leave Dallas with another pass-heavy offensive year, which is a solid landscape when targeting a signal-caller in drafts.

However, Prescott's receiving options aren't all that great, either. He has a stud and fellow fantasy darling in CeeDee Lamb. But past him, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, and KaVontae Turpin make up a trio of lackluster targets.

Lamb and Jake Ferguson are great options at WR1 and TE1, but Dallas' refusal to participate in free agency and invest in depth could burn Prescott's fantasy potential.

Lamb has missed just one game in his four-year NFL career while Ferguson has sat for just one game in his two-year career. The Cowboys seem to be taking their pass-catchers health for granted, and Prescott could falter if Lamb or Ferguson miss any time this season.

It'd be surprising to see Prescott squeeze Cooks' potential to the same degree as 2023. Last year, Cooks notched 8 touchdowns on just 54 receptions and 81 targets. That 9.9% touchdown rate was a career-high for Cooks, who had never exceeded a 6.9% touchdown rate in the nine seasons prior.

Have We Already Seen Prescott's Fantasy Ceiling?

The short answer? Yes.

Prescott threw 4.8 touchdowns over expectation last season (second-most in the NFL) and is due for some negative regression after posting the second-highest touchdown rate of his career in 2023.

But much more importantly, Prescott, Lamb, and Ferguson all participated in a full 17-game season last year. As mentioned, Lamb and Ferguson have been healthy for the entirety of their professional careers while Prescott has been fully healthy in six out of eight seasons.

Prescott not only benefitted from notching 4.8 touchdowns over expectations, but he also had his top targets at his disposal all year, not to mention his own health on his side. This is especially important with Dallas given the steep drop-off in options past Lamb, so we cannot expect Prescott or the Cowboys offense to touch their 2023 numbers.

However, just because Prescott has likely already reached his fantasy ceiling does not mean that he cannot be a value in drafts for the upcoming year.

His ADP seems more reflective of his public reputation than his status as the 2023 touchdown leader and second-leading yards-getter at quarterback.

There is also credence to Prescott being undervalued based on Dallas' win total, which stands at 10.5 wins with +164 odds on the over.

Dak Prescott Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's projections expect Prescott to throw for 4,368.57 yards and 33.66 touchdowns and run for 202.31 yards and 2.06 touchdowns in the 2024-2025 season. These projections assume that Prescott (and his receivers) will play a full 17-game season.

Based on nF's projections, Prescott is stamped as QB7, showing that he could be undervalued with an 8.5 ADP at quarterback at pick 61.

Notably, numberFire expects him to outdo Joe Burrow (pick 59) and Jordan Love (pick 63), both of whom are currently being drafted ahead of Prescott at the position.

Prescott's status as the reigning QB3 isn't without its asterisks. He and his top targets were gifted with a full 17-game season, and the signal-caller was the benefactor of some overperformance on his end.

However, his potentially lower-than-should-be draft stock is accounting for that, and Prescott could outdo his ADP once again.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.