Fantasy Football: 5 Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Exploit in Week 9

Matchups are everything in the NFL, especially at the receiver position.

For fantasy purposes, being able to identify which receivers have advantageous (or disadvantageous) matchups is a sharp way to get a leg up on your opponent.

Each Friday I'll be listing out the best wide receiver-cornerback matchups for the upcoming week. It doesn't take a genius to tell you to start Tyreek Hill, but there will be weeks when some WR1s have better matchups and other weeks when typical WR2 or WR3s have matchups that bump them up in our weekly rankings.

But how do we know what to look for?

First, the numberFire (nF) Player Matchups chart helps to identify advantageous matchups for specific positions.

Then, we dive deeper into the specific cornerbacks. Pro Football Focus (PFF) Player Grades and their WR/CB Matchup chart are great starting points for identifying which specific matchups we want to target.

For receivers, the three key statistics we'll be citing are Target Share, average depth of target (aDOT), and Net Expected Points (NEP). For cornerbacks, we're mainly looking at the percentage of targets caught (REC%), Forced Incompletions per Target (FI%), and the opposing quarterbacks' NFL Passer Rating against them.

Projections and rankings via numberFire. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Week 9 Receiver-Cornerback Matchups

Adam Thielen (CAR)-Indianapolis Colts

numberFire Projection: 16.3 fantasy points (WR7)

• 68.7 Yards
• 6.4 Receptions (9.5 Targets)

FanDuel Props:

• O/U 65.5 Yards
• O/U 5.5 Receptions
• +130 Any Time Touchdown Scorer

33-year-old Adam Thielen continues to enjoy a resurgent season with the Carolina Panthers. He enters Week 9 as the WR8 in half-PPR scoring, averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game. He's done that on the back of a target share (28%) that not only ranks 13th among wide receivers but is still climbing. Over his last three games, Thielen has seen an absurd 37% of Carolina's targets.

As long as the volume remains steady, there's no reason Thielen shouldn't continue his torrid pace against the Indianapolis Colts this week.

The Colts have been stingy against the slot, but they've still surrendered the eighth-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.52) to wide receivers overall. On top of that, they've given up 1.73 yards per route run (YPRR) and an 11.8 average depth of target (aDOT) -- both of which are bottom-10 marks in the league. That's translated to them allowing the 11th-highest passing success rate (48.2%) overall.

According to NextGenStats, the Colts play zone coverage at the highest rate (87.5%) in the league. That bodes well for Thielen considering he's shredded zone all season. Against zone, Thielen's mustered the fourth-highest catch rate (89.5%), the fourth-most receptions (34), and PFF's sixth-highest receiving grade (87).

The Colts also blitz at the third-lowest rate (21%), so the Panthers should stand a decent shot of giving Bryce Young time to throw. Young has a 52.8 passer rating when pressured compared to a 95.5 rating when the pocket is clean.

Indianapolis has gone 6-2 toward the over, and their matchup has the fastest average pace of the week, so we're expecting a good amount of points here. Continue to ride the veteran while he's hot.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ)-Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC)

numberFire Projection: 13.7 fantasy points (WR15)

• 67.6 Yards
• 4.9 Receptions (8.9 Targets)

FanDuel Props:

• O/U 68.5 Yards
• O/U 5.5 Receptions
• +195 Any Time Touchdown Scorer

Garrett Wilson is tied for the league lead in target share (33.5%) this season. Despite losing Aaron Rodgers on the first drive of the season, Wilson enters Week 9 as the WR25 on a point-per-game basis (11.3). As a result, he's likely settled into some sort of a starting role on fantasy teams.

But if you're having reservations about him coming out of the bye, let me clear that up for you.

Garrett Wilson is a smash start this week.

The New York Jets play host to the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night, pitting Wilson up against Asante Samuel Jr. Samuel has graded fairly well at PFF (78.2), but he's given up more than his fair share of counting stats. Among qualified corners, Samuel has allowed the 11th-most receptions (34), the second-most yards (534), and a healthy 11.5 aDOT.

As a whole, L.A. has been incredibly vulnerable through the air. They've given up the most deep yards (1,229) and the second-most deep yards per target (13.4) -- numbers that likely won't improve with Garrett Wilson on deck. Wilson averages 4.6 downfield (10-plus yards) targets and 108.2 air yards per game.

On top of that, the Chargers have allowed the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.52) to opposing wide receivers. They've given up nine touchdowns to receivers (tied for fourth-most) and rank in the bottom 10 in YPRR (1.78) and aDOT (12.5).

With Garrett Wilson, you always have to worry about his quarterback, Zach Wilson. This week, at least, I'm optimistic. The Chargers have generated pressure on just 32.8% of dropbacks -- the eighth-lowest mark in football. That could really help Zach find his star receiver down the field considering his yards per attempt (4.4 to 7.1) and completion percentage (42.3% to 67.1%) climb dramatically with a clean pocket compared to under pressure.

Chris Olave (NO)-Chicago Bears

numberFire Projection: 13.1 fantasy points (WR18)

• 60.9 Yards
• 4.9 Receptions (8.3 Targets)

FanDuel Props:

• O/U 60.5 Yards
• O/U 5.5 Receptions
• +200 Any Time Touchdown Scorer

This is the week.

Chris Olave is primed to explode against the lowly Chicago Bears.

Olave is all the way down at WR30 in half-PPR scoring, and he hasn't even had his bye week. He's eclipsed double-digit points just once in his last five games and hasn't scored 15 points since Week 1.

But this week, this is the week that changes.

Olave's usage remains elite. He leads New Orleans receivers with a 25.9% target share and ranks third in the NFL with 132.7 air yards per game.

Despite seeing 1050 air yards this season, Olave only has 517 actual receiving yards.

For comparison, A.J. Brown is the only other player with over 1,000 air yards (1,093 to be exact). He has 939 receiving yards.

I find it hard-pressed to believe this will continue all season, and what better spot to positively regress than against the Chicago Bears?

The Bears have allowed the third-most raw passing yards (262.3) and second-most passing touchdowns (2.1) per game this season. That's played a role in their 51.6% passing success rate allowed, the third-highest in the NFL.

Chicago has played zone coverage at a 76.7% clip thus far -- 10th in the league. Against zone, Olave boasts PFF's 28th-highest receiving grade (75.6) and has seen an aDOT of 13.9.

He should have a decent shot of getting into the end zone, as well. Chicago is tied for the fourth-most touchdowns allowed to receivers (9) and they've allowed the highest red zone touchdown rate (78.3%) in the league. Throw in that New Orleans carries the third-highest implied team total (24.75) of the week, and Olave has WR1 upside in Week 9.

Demario Douglas (NE)-Washington Commanders

numberFire Projection: 9.0 fantasy points (WR43)

• 39.4 Yards
• 3.4 Receptions (5.3 Targets)

FanDuel Props:

• +220 Any Time Touchdown Scorer

When I'm looking for receivers to target, I start with matchups.

Oh, the New England Patriots are playing the Washington Commanders this week?

Well, maybe we should look at New England's receivers.

That's because the Commanders may be the single most advantageous matchup for opposing wide receivers. Not only have they surrendered the most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.69) to opposing wide receivers, but they rank 32nd in yards per route run (2.09), 31st in aDOT (13.2), and 28th in catch rate over expectation (7.3%). They've also given up a league-leading 13 receiving touchdowns to the position.

Washington generates pressure at an above-average rate (36.9%), but they just dealt away two premier pass rushers, Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Without those two, the Patriots should have a lot more time to throw -- good news for Mac Jones. Jones has completed 73.3% of his passes in a clean pocket this season compared to just 49.3% when under pressure.

So which receiver should we target in New England?

Probably the only guy that's going to see consistent targets, Demario Douglas. "Pop" (as the kids call him) Douglas has seen his route participation (74.6%) and target share (22.4%) skyrocket over the last two weeks.

The Pats just lost Kendrick Bourne for the season while DeVante Parker will miss at least this week with a concussion.

That leaves Douglas as the de facto No. 1 receiver in New England.

It also doesn't hurt that Washington and New England have the second-fastest average pace this week.

In a potentially fast-paced game against one of the softest secondaries in the NFL, I'm expecting the rookie to break out in a major way.

Tank Dell (HOU)-Tampa Bay Buccaneers

numberFire Projection: 8.2 fantasy points (WR48)

• 36.5 Yards
• 2.7 Receptions (4.5 Targets)

FanDuel Props:

• O/U 44.5 Yards
• O/U 3.5 Receptions
• +280 Any Time Touchdown Scorer

We close things out with another rookie, Tank Dell of the Houston Texans.

Dell is coming off a quiet statistical outing, but his utilization profile has me bullish on a bounceback this week.

In his first game back from a concussion, Dell saw the highest snap share (78.6%) among Houston wideouts for the first time all season. He ran a route on 92.3% of C.J. Stroud's dropbacks (tied for the most on the team) but saw only saw a 16.7% target share.

That said, Dell has proven the ability to handle 20% target shares -- something he did in Weeks 2 and 3.

Against a zone-heavy Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, expect a heavy dose of Houston's Swiss Army knife.

Tampa Bay has played zone at the ninth-highest rate (77.9%) thus far, per NextGenStats. Dell has played well against zone, boasting a 78.9 PFF receiving grade and racking up 2.38 YPRR. Most importantly, a staggering 87.5% of Dell's targets have come against zone coverage.

The Bucs' defense is no cakewalk, but they've quietly surrendered the eighth-highest catch rate (69.4%) and the eighth-most YPRR (1.79) to opposing wide receivers.

In general, I'm optimistic about Houston's passing offense. Tampa Bay pressures the quarterback at the second-lowest pressure rate (29%) in the league, which should do wonders for Stroud. The rookie has looked like an elite quarterback when the pocket is kept clean, completing 65.9% of his passes and racking up 8.7 yards per attempt. He's thrown nine touchdowns compared to just one interception without pressure.

Under pressure, however, Stroud falls apart. He's completing just 46.3% of his passes for 4.7 yards per attempt. He also has yet to throw a touchdown when under pressure.

Assuming Houston gives Stroud time to throw, I'm expecting him to dice up this Bucs defense and find his No. 1 zone-buster all over the field.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.