FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/21/23
We're back after the international break for some Premier League action.
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
Crystal Palace (+650) at Newcastle (-230)
Over 2.5 Goals: -125 | Most Likely to Score: Alexander Isak (+135)
Brighton (+550) at Manchester City (-250)
Over 2.5 Goals: -304 | Most Likely to Score: Erling Haaland (-165)
Wolves (+200) at Bournemouth (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -134 | Most Likely to Score: Dominic Solanke (+200)
Burnley (+370) at Brentford (-125)
Over 2.5 Goals: -113 | Most Likely to Score: Bryan Mbeumo (+175)
Luton Town (+450) at Nottingham Forest (-150)
Over 2.5 Goals: -103 | Most Likely to Score: Divock Origi (+200)
Arsenal (+120) at Chelsea (+220)
Over 2.5 Goals: -107 | Most Likely to Score: Gabriel Jesus (+250)
Manchester United (-270) at Sheffield United (+650)
Over 2.5 Goals: -197 | Most Likely to Score: Rasmus Hojlund (+125)
This is an interesting seven-game slate, with no team listed as a super overwhelming favorite.
The two Manchester clubs are the biggest favorites, and it's easy to prefer City players over United players given the way both teams have played this season. The other advantage Man City players have is the fact that they play in the early window, so we won't have to do any guessing with their lineup.
Erling Haaland ($25, -165 anytime goal scoring odds) remains the standout forward play on the slate, even if he has a slightly tough matchup. Brighton had been a solid defensive team but recently have let their play slip. They have allowed the eighth-most expected goals (xG) in the league, according to FBRef.
Julian Alvarez ($21, +130) is also a forward we can use for Man City. He owns good scoring odds and has a role on set pieces. Phil Foden ($18, +190) also gets some set pieces for City and comes at a nice salary discount off Alvarez.
If you want to play some Man United players, make sure you check the starting lineup before the latest kickoff on the slate. Bruno Fernandes ($23, +210) is the main target. He takes the majority of set pieces, including penalties.
You can pair Bruno with one of Rasmus Hojlund ($19, +125) or Marcus Rashford ($19, +135). It makes sense to stack Manchester United against Sheffield United, the team that has allowed the most xG in the league.
Newcastle is the next biggest favorite at home against Crystal Palace. They don't have a player with a higher salary than Alexander Isak ($20, +135). Another good target for them is Miguel Almiron ($15, +150 to score or assist) as a value play.
There are a few games on this slate that if you wanted to ignore completely, I couldn't blame you too much. One of those games is Luton Town at Nottingham Forest. However, Morgan Gibbs-White ($17, -105 to score or assist) has a near monopoly on set pieces and gets a home matchup against one of the worst teams in the league.
Another guy in an unfancied game who is a good play is Hwang Hee-Chan ($16, +180 to score or assist). He's scored in his last two Premier League games against tough opposition in Man City and Aston Villa, so he can certainly net a goal versus Bournemouth.
Basically, everyone in the Arsenal-Chelsea match has a salary in the mid-teens, especially if Bukayo Saka can't play. Gabriel Martinelli ($16, +170 to score or assist) is my favorite play on the Arsenal side. He gets a share of set pieces and is a threat to score from the left wing. He bagged the winner against Manchester City last time out.
On Chelsea, Cole Palmer ($14, +260) is a nice value play. He's getting his chance to start and had a goal and an assist in his last game.
Added time -- Brentford are at home against one of the worst teams in the Premier League, yet people will probably pass over Bryan Mbeumo ($20, +175). He has very nice goal-scoring odds and leads the team in set pieces, so he also brings a good floor.
Kieran Trippier ($16, +195 to score or assist) started out the season fairly slow for DFS but has really picked things up lately. He's created five chances and had at least six crosses in each of his last three EPL games. He also has five assists in those three matches and could really hit a ceiling performance if he scores a goal from one of his trademark free kicks.
Alfie Doughty ($12, +390) is quickly becoming a new favorite full-back for DFS on a weak team, like Trippier once was when he played for Burnley. He has double-digit crosses in four straight games.
Some of the best full-backs are $9, which should give us the salary relief we need to jam the forwards/midfielders we want. That group includes Oleksandr Zinchenko ($9, +320), Rayan Ait-Nouri ($9, +370) and Neco Williams ($9, +360).
If you want to target the big favorites, Josko Gvardiol ($10, +380) and Kyle Walker ($9, +600) are players from Man City who fit in nicely at defender.
Added time -- There aren't many center-backs below the $9 full-backs that we'll want to play this week. The two that are expected to start are Hannes Delcroix ($8) and Teden Mengi ($8), and their teams should be defending a lot, which should give them opportunities for defensive stats. For the same salary, you can play Mads Roerslev ($8) as a full-back on a favored team.
Ederson ($13) and Andre Onana ($13) are tied for the highest salary. Onana has the better odds to win and also has +125 odds to keep a clean sheet, compared to +165 clean-sheet odds for Ederson.
Mark Flekken ($11) is a home favorite against the team with the second-fewest xG in the league, so that $2 salary discount is nice.
While Neto ($10) has the same salary as Jose Sa ($10), Neto is the home favorite, so he makes more sense to roster.
Thomas Kaminski ($8) makes sense as a salary-saving play. He's in the game with the lowest over/under.
Added time -- If desperate for salary, Wes Foderingham ($7) for Sheffield United is an option. Manchester United have scored more than two goals only one time in the Premier League this season and have totaled a mere two goals across three away PL matches.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.