FanDuel Single-Game DFS Football Helper: Divisional Round Saturday (Packers at 49ers)

Saturday's second matchup features the NFC's top seed hosting the lowest one, but we could have a fun one on our hands between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers. While the 49ers are big home favorites (-9.5), per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, this game also has the Divisional Round's highest total (50.5), and we just saw the Packers upset the Dallas Cowboys in dominant fashion last week.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

If you're going the conventional route at MVP, there's a pretty clear top three in Christian McCaffrey ($17,500), Brock Purdy ($14,500), and Jordan Love ($15,000). Each one averaged over 19 FanDuel points per game this season -- a sizable gap over anyone else on the board -- and they predictably have the three best fantasy projections, according to numberFire's model.

In the regular season, only Josh Allen averaged more FanDuel points per game than McCaffrey's 22.4. Despite sitting out Week 18, CMC led the league in touches (339) and scrimmage yards (2,023), and he was tied for the most total rushing/receiving touchdowns (21). He's about as matchup-proof as they come, but it can't hurt that Green Bay comes in as numberFire's 22nd-ranked adjusted rush defense. McCaffrey is likely to be immensely popular.

Whether you think Purdy is good or just a product of his environment, he's been putting up FanDuel points all season, and his hyper-efficient play has been well-documented. Despite averaging a mere 27.8 pass attempts per game, he's logged 20-plus FanDuel points in 8 of 16 starts, and he's cracked 25 points four times.

Particularly as a non-rushing QB, the trouble for Purdy on a single-game slate is that even on his best days, he's often out-scored by one of his lethal weapons. If nothing else, though, he can be counted on as a shoo-in flex play, and he could still lead the slate in scoring if he tosses three or more scores, something he's done five times this year. The Packers are just 19th in adjusted pass defense, per numberFire.

We just saw Green Bay pulverize what was supposed to be a strong Dallas defense last week, but this should be a much tougher test for Love against the 49ers. San Francisco ranks fifth in adjusted pass defense and has given up the seventh-fewest FanDuel points per game to opposing signal-callers.

But Love can't be counted out. In terms of Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back -- numberFire's pass efficiency metric -- Love has the league's second-best mark behind Purdy, and he played well down the stretch, scoring over 20 FanDuel points in six of his last nine games and throwing for three touchdowns four times. If this game shoots out -- it's the weekend's only matchup with a total reaching 50 points -- he could be in the mix at MVP.

With much of the attention presumably going to the above three in the multiplier slot, Deebo Samuel ($13,000), Brandon Aiyuk ($12,000), and Aaron Jones ($12,500) are others to consider.

In Samuel's 13 games playing over half the snaps, he's shown a 23.7% target share, 20.4% air yards share, and 28.1% red zone target share. Of course, what makes him a more compelling play is the added rushing work, as he also tacks on 2.6 rushes per game. In all, he's totaled 12 receiving/rushing touchdowns. While his fantasy outputs can fluctuate wildly from game to game on this stacked offense, his ceiling includes going nuclear twice for 30-plus points.

Excluding a meaningless Week 18, Aiyuk has seen a 24.5% target share and 41.5% air yards share, leading the 49ers in both categories. He also has a team-best 36.8% end zone target share. Aiyuk is projected for the most targets on either team. He's spiked for 24-plus points twice this season and could fly under the radar at MVP relative to these other top options.

Over the last four games, Jones has averaged 134.3 scrimmage yards off 21.0 carries and 2.5 targets per game. He saved the best for last against the Cowboys, punching it into the end zone three times on his way to 31.6 FanDuel points. With A.J. Dillon missing the last two weeks, Jones has dominated snaps (71.9%), and the number would be even higher if last week wasn't a blowout.

Dillon has yet to practice as of Wednesday, suggesting he's likely to be out again. Even if he's able to play, his workload was trending down even before the injury, and it's hard to see Green Bay capping Jones' touches now. Jones' Wild Card performance could bump up his MVP roster percentage, but I doubt it's overly high given all our options. He's one of my favorite choices facing a defense that's 19th versus the run, according to numberFire.

Flex Breakdown

While George Kittle ($11,000) is capable of a slate-breaking performance (three touchdowns in Week 5), he's often the odd man out on a team with CMC, Samuel, and Aiyuk. But he still has a solid 20.2% target share and has seen nine-plus targets four times this year. He could be a sneaky MVP against a team that's 28th in adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to TEs.

Beyond Kittle, we're left with scraps in the San Francisco offense. Backup running back Elijah Mitchell ($7,500) could see a handful of opportunities, and Jauan Jennings ($7,000) is projected for a few targets, but it would likely require a flukey touchdown for either one to make a fantasy impact.

On the other hand, we've yet to touch on the Packers' pass-catchers, which is where we can find some flex value. It's a little tricky to predict which wideout will have a big game on a given day, though, as no player had a season-long target share above 18%.

Romeo Doubs ($10,000) was the clear winner on Wild Card Weekend, leading the team with six targets and catching all of them for 151 yards and a touchdown. He led the team in route rate (76.2%) and snap rate (68.5%), too.

Jayden Reed ($10,500) and Dontayvion Wicks ($9,000) were the other WRs to log over half the snaps and routes last week.

Reed failed to make a single reception on three targets against Dallas, but prior to that, he had scored double-digit FanDuel points in four straight. He and Doubs have been the most consistent wideouts for Green Bay this season, and Reed projects for the team's most targets (third overall on the slate) despite last week's disappointing result.

Wicks has now scored at least one touchdown (four total) in each of his last three games. It's encouraging that he ran the second-most routes among Packers wideouts (61.9%) last week, too. However, it's possible that Christian Watson ($9,500) eats into his playing time more as Watson gets healthier.

And speaking of Watson, he's probably the biggest wild card of the bunch. After missing the last five games of the regular season, he played 40.7% of the snaps in Green Bay's Wild Card game and saw one target. A full-time player earlier in the season, it's possible he sees a bigger role this weekend, though.

All four of these wide receivers' receiving props are clustered together on FanDuel Sportsbook, further showing how unpredictable this could be. Reed has the team's highest receiving yards prop (41.5).

Tight end is also a committee situation between Tucker Kraft ($8,000) and Luke Musgrave ($7,500). With Musgrave recently returning from injury, Kraft dominated snaps last week (79.6% to 27.8%), but both players saw three targets apiece, with Musgrave scoring a touchdown and having a far more productive day. Similar to Watson, Musgrave had a more prominent role before his injury, so we could see his playing time get a bump this week.

I'm less inclined to look toward a kicker or defense in a high total game, but we can't rule out the 49ers running away with this as a team that's dominated for much of their campaign. In that scenario, perhaps we see Jordan Love revert back to the mistakes we saw earlier in the season, leading to fantasy points for the San Francisco D/ST ($9,500). Overall, though, these positions are secondary options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.