FanDuel Single-Game DFS Football Helper: Conference Championship Round (Chiefs at Ravens)

The team who will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl will be decided on Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Baltimore Ravens in the Conference Championship Round. The Ravens enter the highly anticipated matchup as 3.5-point home favorites over the Chiefs, and the over/under is sitting at 44.5, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Lamar Jackson ($17,000) -- Not many quarterbacks on any slate have a chance to produce the ceiling outcomes that Lamar Jackson is capable of. In last week's blowout win in the Divisional Round, Jackson contributed 252 total yards and four total touchdowns en route to 36.08 FanDuel points. Despite finishing with only 152 passing yards on 22 attempts, Jackson is recording the most expected points added per drop back (0.67) and the highest success rate (84%) among quarterbacks in the playoffs, via NextGenStats. The electric signal-caller has now tallied 32-plus FanDuel points in three of his last five games.

Patrick Mahomes ($15,000) -- Even with a below-average set of weapons, Patrick Mahomes continues to deliver when it matters most for the Chiefs. While Mahomes has yet to exceed 18 FanDuel points in this year's playoffs, he is logging the fourth-most expected points added per drop back (0.28) among quarterbacks in the postseason. Baltimore's defense certainly presents some challenges that could make things difficult for Mahomes and Kansas City's offense. At the same time, Mahomes is in his sixth consecutive AFC title game and has his sights on another Super Bowl.

Travis Kelce ($13,000) -- Travis Kelce came back to life in last week's victory, turning his six targets into five receptions, 75 yards, and two scores. Through Kansas City's first two playoff games, Kelce leads the Chiefs in route participation (90.6%), target share (29.1%), and air yards share (26.4%) while posting the second-best marks in FanDuel points per game (16.3) and yards per route run (2.52). Even though Kelce doesn't look as explosive as he's been in previous years, the Chiefs are going to go down swinging with him still being the preferred go-to option for Mahomes.

Flex Breakdown

Isiah Pacheco ($14,000) -- When there's a running back getting as much volume as Isiah Pacheco is right now, it's tough not to mention him on a single-game slate. The second-year back has handled at least 15 carries in seven of his last eight contests. The Chiefs are leaning on Pacheco to be their workhorse back, and with Jerick McKinnon sidelined, only Clyde Edwards-Helaire is there to steal snaps. Pacheco is a solid contrarian option at MVP in the scenario where the Chiefs secure a lead and force the Ravens to play from behind, assuming Pacheco plays on Sunday despite dealing with a toe ailment.

Rashee Rice ($12,500) -- Outside of Kelce and Pacheco, Rashee Rice is the only other skill player on the Chiefs who has flashed some consistency this season. Before posting just 6.7 FanDuel points in last week's win, Rice had scored 14-plus FanDuel points in five of his previous seven appearances. Since Kansas City's bye week in Week 11, the rookie wideout leads the team in target share (25.8%), red-zone target share (28.3%), yards per route run (2.78), and receiving yards per game (81.9). The Ravens have a stingy secondary, but Rice's ability to create yards after the catch makes him very appealing on single-game slates.

Zay Flowers ($11,500) -- The expected return of Mark Andrews could alter the roles of multiple skill players on the Ravens. One of the players who should still have a decent-sized role in the passing game despite Andrews returning is Zay Flowers. In the time since Andrews went out (Week 12), Flowers is logging the highest route participation (90.6%) and target share (24.1%) on Baltimore while having the second-highest air yards share (24%). Baltimore's offense can win in a variety of ways, and if it needs to air it out to beat Mahomes, Flowers should be busy at the receiver position.

Mark Andrews ($11,000)/Isaiah Likely ($10,000) -- Speaking of Andrews, the All-Pro tight end is worth listing assuming he does make his return on Sunday. Andrews fully practiced last week before being ruled out, which indicates that he'll likely be near full-strength once he is activated from injured reserve. Before sustaining an ankle injury in Week 11, Andrews led all Ravens pass catchers in FanDuel points per game (12.2), receiving yards per game (57.9), and yards per route run (2.24). Even with Andrews expected to suit up, Isaiah Likely should maintain a role in the offense. Likely has tallied 10-plus FanDuel points in five of his last six games, and the Ravens could deploy more 12 personnel with both of their talented tight ends being available.

Justice Hill ($9,000) -- The Ravens' backfield is somewhat tough to decipher with Justice Hill out-touching Gus Edwards 15 to 11 in last week's lopsided win. Baltimore secured a massive lead in the second half in the Divisional Round, so Hill's increased usage could be viewed as a direct result of the scoreboard. However, in the last four games, Hill leads all Ravens RBs in snap share (57.8%), route participation (55.3%), and adjusted opportunities (17.7). Edwards is going to be the goal-line back, and Jackson will receive his fair share of carries (including at the goal-line), but Hill has seemingly earned his own role in the rushing attack. Kansas City's defense is also permitting the 11th-most FanDuel points per target (1.13) to running backs.

If you want to look deeper into any of Sunday's Conference Championship games, consider taking advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs No-Sweat Same Game Parlay. Check the promotions page for more information.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.