FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 9 Thursday Night (Titans at Steelers)

Week 9 begins with what could be one of the lowest-scoring games of the slate. The Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers are combining for a 36.5 over/under, per the NFL odds in FanDuel Sportsbook. Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point home favorite.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

According to numberFire's model, just three players are projected for more than 10 FanDuel points, showing just how starved for fantasy upside this game could be.

Much of this has to do with Pittsburgh, a team that struggles on offense while simultaneously playing tough defense. According to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, the Steelers are 27th on offense and 6th on defense. Adding in that these short weeks often lead to ugly play on Thursdays to begin with certainly doesn't help, either.

Still, it's hard to not be at least a little intrigued by what Tennessee quarterback Will Levis ($15,000) did in his NFL debut last week. Levis tossed four touchdowns while averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt, leading him to a whopping 26.62 FanDuel points. Levis demonstrated some running ability in college, and while he only accrued 11 rushing yards in his debut, it was still promising that he logged seven rushes.

Pittsburgh ranks 10th against the pass, per numberFire, so it's possible Levis comes crashing to earth this time around, and his hot debut will likely make him a chalky MVP, too. But in a game sorely lacking exciting options, he's one of the top guys to consider nonetheless.

Kenny Pickett ($13,500) and Derrick Henry ($16,000) are the other two projected for double-digit points.

Pickett is dealing with a rib injury but has said he will play. However, he's difficult to get behind at MVP, as he's been held below 13 FanDuel points in all but one game, and that high-water mark was just 18.5 points. Pickett is averaging negative Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, notably having a worse mark than other erratic QBs like Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and Joshua Dobbs.

Of course, despite his struggles, we can't completely rule out any QB leading a single-game slate in scoring, and Tennessee does rank just 26th in adjusted pass defense.

We've seen Henry's snaps fluctuate a bit more compared to last season, but he's still averaging 17.1 rushes and 2.4 targets per game, and the Titans still love to turn to him in positive game scripts. In their three wins, Henry has logged 25, 22, and 22 rushes.

Given the tight spread, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see Henry get 20-plus opportunities, and the Steelers' defense is less intimidating on the ground, allowing the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs. Like Levis, I expect he'll be popular at MVP, though.

Once we get past those three, wideout DeAndre Hopkins ($13,000) is the next guy who stands out, and I'd be more excited to roster him over Pickett in the multiplier slot. However, he's questionable and was a surprise DNP in Wednesday's practice, so his status is up in the air.

Hopkins was notably on the receiving end of 128 yards and 3 touchdowns from Levis in Week 8, helping him to a season-best 32.8 FanDuel points. It's worth noting, he did all this damage on just six targets (22.2%), though.

But it sure looks like there's a connection between these two already, and Hopkins' usage has been strong over the course of the season. He leads the team in target share (27.8%), air yards share (41.9%), and red zone share (39.1%).

Despite the overall strength of Pittsburgh's defense, their struggles on the other side of the ball have hurt them in time of possession, and they've still allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers. Assuming he's able to play, let's hope Hopkins' recent ceiling game doesn't bump up his MVP roster percentage too much.

On the other side, George Pickens ($14,000) might normally be right up there with Hopkins, but the return of Diontae Johnson ($12,000) has muddied things up in an offense that doesn't exactly have a ton of weekly fantasy points to go around.

With both players active in Weeks 7 and 8, we've seen Johnson capture a 31.7% target share and 45.0% air yards share, whereas Pickens is at 20.6% and 38.1%. Johnson's receiving yards prop (58.5) is actually the highest of any receiver in the game, with both Pickens and D-Hop sitting slightly behind (53.5).

But Pickens' talent could always bust through, and numberFire still projects him for more FanDuel points than Johnson. Pickens has exceeded 100 yards three times this year, and one of those came in Week 7 with Johnson active.

The good news is the added uncertainty could leave both Pickens and Johnson with muted MVP roster percentages. The Titans have given up the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts, too.

Flex Breakdown

Pittsburgh running backs Najee Harris ($11,000) and Jaylen Warren ($10,000) are the notable omissions from the previous section, but it's really hard to get excited about either one, both in terms of usage and matchup.

While Harris has the edge in rushing volume (12.0 to 6.4 carries), Warren gets more work in the passing game (4.6 to 2.4 targets). Ultimately, it's an upside-sapping committee split, and facing an eighth-ranked adjusted rush defense won't do them any favors.

Both players get enough touches to flirt with double-digit FanDuel points, so they're still in the flex mix, but a lot would need to go right for either one to break out for a big performance.

Behind Pickens and Johnson, tight end Connor Heyward ($7,500) might actually be the most relevant Steelers pass-catcher. In three games with Pat Freiermuth out, Heyward has logged a 70.8% snap rate and 73.1% route rate with a 13.8% target share. He's yet to reach even 30 yards in any of those weeks, though, so he probably needs a touchdown to end up on the optimal lineup.

What little fantasy value Allen Robinson ($7,000) had has completely gone up in smoke with Johnson back. He's seen two targets total over the last two games, and his receiving yardage prop is set at just 14.5.

On Tennessee, backup running back Tyjae Spears ($7,500) has a meaningful role, playing just under half the snaps (49.4%). However, he's averaging just 4.9 carries and 3.4 targets per game, and he typically falls short of double-digit opportunities. The good news is he has a far more appealing salary than either Steelers running back.

Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo ($7,000) tied Hopkins in targets (six) last week with Levis under center and has the team's second-best target share (17.1%) this year. But similar to his counterpart Heyward, the yardage totals have been limited, so he's also touchdown or bust.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($8,000) and Treylon Burks ($6,500) split snaps down the middle at wide receiver behind D-Hop, with each one seeing two targets apiece. Of the two, numberFire's model prefers Burks, projecting him for 4.7 targets, the fourth-best mark on the slate.

Given the likelihood of a low-scoring game, kickers Chris Boswell ($9,000) and Nick Folk ($8,500) have a better shot of coming through as value plays. The same goes for the defenses. Levis is still an open book, and the Pittsburgh D/ST ($9,500) is good at generating pressure. The Tennessee D/ST ($9,000) is unexciting on its own, but the poor play of Pickett could lead to opportunities. The Steelers' QB has the league's 11th-highest sack rate (7.8%).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.