FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 8 Sunday Night (Bears at Chargers)

We were spoiled with a potential Super Bowl preview last week, and we'll pay the proverbial piper this week. The undermanned Chicago Bears will do their best to keep pace with the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night, and one of the NFL's proudest fanbases might show up to help their team in SoCal.

According to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chargers are an 8.5-point favorite in this one, and its projected total is 46.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

numberFire's scheduled-adjusted power rankings have the Chargers as the fifth-worst overall defense in the NFL, and the Bears are seventh-worst in those same ranks. We shouldn't have issue finding fantasy points in this one.

Of course, the conversation starts with the favored side's franchise QB, Justin Herbert ($17,000). Though talking heads have questioned Herbert's ability all week, NFL's NextGenStats have no questions. He's posted 0.16 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), which is the sixth-best mark in the NFL among qualifiers. I have no doubts he'll post a modest day against numberFire's third-worst pass D.

His lead target, Keenan Allen ($16,500), sits right behind him in the player pool, and Allen has been an equal bet for raw fantasy points since the Bolts lost Mike Williams in Week 3. Since then, Allen has drawn 11.3 targets per game (32.3% share) as the only Charger with a target share north of 20.0%. If Allen catches multiple scores early in a blowout, turning to him in lieu of Herbert could pay dividends.

The curious case of Austin Ekeler ($14,500) lurks behind the duo. Ekeler has amassed a dreadful -0.82 rushing yards over expectation per carry, and Kellen Moore's new offense has funneled him just a 12.1% target share. He's objectively been a bad football player in 2023, but his off-field involvement in fantasy football has always led to his personal desire to please fantasy managers, and that hasn't changed this season. He's been awarded 38.1% of L.A.'s looks in the redzone, and this soft matchup could easily be the place he's begging the coaching staff for a pair of scores as the game gets out of hand.

My favorite, contrarian MVP option on the slate is D.J. Moore ($12,000). Moore has been the lead -- if not only -- true target for Tyson Bagent ($12,500). In the past two weeks, he's drawn 63.6% (!) of Chicago's air yards and 100% of the team's endzone targets. In a projected negative script, 10 downfield or endzone targets isn't unrealistic if those market shares continue to hold, and you'll want him in in your lineup if they do.

Flex Breakdown

I know what many of you are thinking; how could you leave out D'Onta Foreman ($13,000) after he posted 31.5 FanDuel points and made the main slate's perfect lineup last week? The answer is quite easily.

Foreman's explosion came against the NFL's second-worst run defense, but the Chargers are just 15th-worst in that category and have stymied Tony Pollard and Isiah Pacheco in consecutive weeks. On top of that, D'Onta also played just 46.2% of the snaps and got 21 opportunities on 33 snaps, and Roschon Johnson ($8,500) is back this week from concussion protocol. I won't even really look his way.

Unlike Foreman's on-field role concerns, Bagent's obstacle is efficiency. He's posted a dreadful -0.24 EPA/db to this point against a defense with plenty of talent. Still, I prefer him to Foreman if forced to choose after he rushed for 24 yards last week; that puts a rushing score that might not matter to the outcome on the table if nothing else.

Josh Palmer ($10,500) has fought through injuries in recent weeks, and he's questionable again here, but it hasn't slowed him down. Palmer has complied at least 7 targets and 60 receiving yards in every game since Williams went down. I actually love a Herbert-less build attacking the Chargers when he and Allen have combined for a 53.6% target share since Week 3. Throw in Ekeler, and a ton of L.A.'s touchdown equity can be had with three players.

Through 39 drop backs to this point, Bagent hasn't looked the way of Cole Kmet ($10,000) yet; I don't know how you can justify him at the salary with questionable upside even if his role with Justin Fields at the helm. Darnell Mooney ($8,000) was Bagent's second target, recording five targets on an 87.1% route rate in Week 7. That was significantly higher than Kmet's (61.3%).

Unappealing options from the skill positions are all that remain behind them. Joshua Kelley ($8,500) busted a long run on seven carries last week, but he doesn't have a sustainable workload. Quentin Johnston ($8,000) ran 68.6% of the Chargers' routes in Week 7, but he continues to underwhelm with just a target in that one. Donald Parham Jr. ($7,000) could be an option if Gerald Everett ($7,500) sits with a hip issue, but Everett logged a full practice on Friday. I don't have an interest in the timeshare when Everett's already defied the odds to score in consecutive weeks.

Some might turn to the Chargers D/ST ($9,500) against an undrafted rookie quarterback as a sizable favorite, and it's not hard to envision that working. They forced seven sacks and three turnovers against rookie Aidan O'Connell in Week 4. The Bears D/ST ($8,500) would be far more contrarian, but they forced just two turnovers and two sacks in the first four weeks of the season against stronger QBs like Herbert.

By and large, these two squads haven't left a ton of opportunities on the field, so kickers are a tougher proposition. Both L.A. and Chicago convert redzone trips to touchdowns at least 63% of the time, ranking in the NFL's top eight of the category. Plus, as mentioned, these are two horrible defenses, so I'm not forecasting a monstrous effort from either Cairo Santos ($9,000) or Cameron Dicker ($9,000) in this affair. I prefer flex plays like Mooney and Johnson below $9,000 in a game with a modest projected offensive output.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.