FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 17 (Lions at Cowboys)

In lieu of a Monday Night Football game, we have a crucial matchup slotted in on Saturday night between the 11-4 Detroit Lions and 10-5 Dallas Cowboys, a matchup with big seeding potential in the NFC.

The Cowboys are favored by 4.5 points, according to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The total is 52.5 points.

Let's dig into the matchup.

Lions/Cowboys Single-Game DFS Breakdown

In games with totals of at least 49.0 since the start of last season, we've seen a pretty clear trend in past single-game perfect lineups. In such high-scoring matchups, quarterbacks are MVPs of perfect lineups 47.3% of the time (out of 55 games). That's noticeably higher than the full-sample trend of 34.6%. Receivers also see an MVP bump (29.1% from 24.9%).

But in these games, there is generally enough scoring to go around: 67.3% of these lineups comprised 3 players from one team and 2 from the opposition (up from 61.0% for the full sample).

Defenses and kickers are less likely to make perfect lineups in these high-totaled games, as well.

Dallas is undefeated at home (7-0) with a dominant +24.4 point differential on a per-game basis while also holding a league-best 39.9 points per game at home mark.

Detroit, meanwhile, is 6-2 on the road in spite of a -4 total point differential in those road matchups, so they're a bit overrated in road matchups.

The defensive matchup overall favors Dallas, who ranks 7th in adjusted overall defense (via numberFire's metrics), including 6th against the pass and 14th against the rush.

The Lions are 23rd in adjusted defense overall: 28th against the pass but 8th against the rush.

In his only three games against adjusted pass defenses ranked in the bottom eight, Dak Prescott ($14,500) has averaged 284.0 yards and 2.0 touchdowns on a great 9.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and an 8.4-yards-per-attempt average. My simulation model has Prescott around 35.0% likely to lead the game in fantasy points, thus making him a smart building block at MVP as expected.

Jared Goff ($13,000) has still fared well enough against top-10 adjusted pass defenses. He's averaged 248.7 yards but just 1.0 touchdowns and 6.6 yards per attempt. He has 12.0% MVP odds in my sims.

Notably, CeeDee Lamb ($16,000) looks to be an ideal pivot play at MVP. Lamb has averaged 105.4 yards on 12.1 targets (a 32.3% target share) since the team's Week 7 bye. He's the MVP in 23.4% of my simulated outcomes.

As for the other Cowboys pass-catchers, tight end Jake Ferguson ($10,000) is second on the team in that post-bye span with an 18.1% target share for 52.1 yards per game. He has a 23.2% red zone share, thus elevating his appeal.

Of note, Brandin Cooks ($9,000) continues to run a lot of routes (87.1% since Week 11) but isn't getting a lot of work: 12.1% target share (4.3 targets per game in this split). Other than that, it's just Tony Pollard ($11,500; 61.4% route rate and 12.6% target share since Week 11) seeing elevated work over the larger sample.

As for Pollard more specifically, he has played on at least 70.3% of the team's snaps in five straight games. In that span, he's averaging 14.4 carries and 4.4 targets for 76.4 yards per game from scrimmage. He does have a 61.5% red zone share, though.

Bumping over to the Lions, as mentioned above, Goff hasn't played amazing against good pass defenses -- but he's still been viable. He's a fine MVP pivot play but may be overshadowed in that regard by Amon-Ra St. Brown ($13,500) from a true game theory standpoint.

St. Brown enters with a 29.4% target share (9.9 per game for 88.0 yards) since the team's Week 9 bye. He also owns a huge 40.5% red zone target share in that split.

Sam LaPorta ($10,500) is next in target share in that span at 17.9% with a 16.2% red zone share, but Jahmyr Gibbs ($12,000) isn't that far behind (14.5% target share and 13.5% red zone share). Gibbs even pairs with Goff as an easy way to differentiate your stacks.

Other notable route-runners of late include Jameson Williams ($8,000; 61.0% route rate last week) and Josh Reynolds ($9,000; 61.0%). Williams is undergoing a late-season surge and now has an 18.3% target share (6.5 per game) over his past two, and he gets a lot of air yards on those (11.2-yard average depth of target). He's a very viable flex play at his salary.

Gibbs and David Montgomery ($11,000) continue yo-yoing snap rates between the 60/40 split range. This week, the arrow points more to Gibbs given the expectation that the Lions could trail. Montgomery, then, becomes an MVP pivot when taking the angle that the Lions actually play from ahead and control the clock.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.