FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 9 International Series (Dolphins vs. Chiefs)

NFL football will be played in Frankfurt, Germany for just the second time when the Miami Dolphins (6-2) take on the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2). Per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites for Sunday's 9:30 ET kickoff. The 50.5-point total is tied for the highest of the week.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

There is no shortage of MVP candidates for Sunday morning's action given the tight spread, high total and amount of weapons on each side. That's reflected in numberFire's model. A whopping seven players are projected for double-digit points -- three from the Chiefs and four from the Dolphins.

Starting at the top, Patrick Mahomes($16,500) actually isn't the highest-salaried option, but his 21.6-point projection clears the rest of the pack by slightly more than 2.5 points. Mahomes is coming off a brutal performance against the Denver Broncos, totaling a measly 7.6 points and failing to throw a touchdown for the first time since 2021. He's now eclipsed 20 FanDuel points just once across his last five games after doing so in each of the first three.

Still, I'm willing to chalk that up to the flu and trust the reigning MVP. He's more than a quality multiplier against a Dolphins secondary allowing the sixth-most adjusted fantasy points per dropback (0.42) to opposing QBs. It doesn't hurt that KC is passing at the highest rate over expectation (8.9%).

Former-Chief/current-Dolphin Tyreek Hill ($17,000) carries the highest salary and second-highest projection (19) for Sunday morning's affair. Hill has cleared 20 FanDuel points in four consecutive games and in six of eight overall. He'll likely see a high MVP roster percentage given his otherworldy play thus far and the revenge narrative

Kansas City's defense has been stout against opposing wideouts, giving up the third-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target (1.14) and the third-fewest yards per route run (1.40) to the position. On top of that, they've utilized man coverage at the fifth-highest rate (38.4%), while Hill has been considerably better against zone (1.00 fantasy points per route run) compared to man (0.53), per PFF. However, that 0.53 mark still ranks inside the top-25 receivers, and his average depth of target actually climbs from 10.5 against zone to 15.4 against man. I don't think KC's defense is a major concern for Hill despite the unit's prowess in 2023.

Tua Tagovailoa ($15,000) rounds out what is a pretty well-defined top three, at least according to numberFire's model. Tua projects for 18.4 FanDuel points -- a number he's cleared in five of eight games. Tua's fantasy performances have been defined by touchdowns as he lacks rushing upside and has turned the ball over in all but two games. He's thrown for multiple scores in each of his five games with 15-plus points.

While the Chiefs have allowed the third-lowest passing success rate (38.5%) and the third-fewest adjusted fantasy points per dropback (0.32), they've also given up 1.4 passing touchdowns per game -- tied for the 10th-most in the NFL. Kansas City has a high sack rate (9.3%), but they've actually struggled to generate pressure, doing so at the ninth-lowest rate (33.1%). Per PFF, Tua is tied for the highest passer rating (119.8) with a clean pocket, but I still see him as more of a flex play given the lack of rushing and multitude of MVP options.

Travis Kelce ($14,500) is the last name salaried over $12,500. Kelce followed suit with his quarterback and struggled last week, but it was just the second time he's been held to single-digit FanDuel points. He still saw a 24.3% target share and carries a healthy 15.6-point projection into Germany.

Miami sits in the middle of the pack in adjusted fantasy points per target (1.37), but they've allowed the eighth-most yards per route run (1.38) and the second-highest catch rate over expectation (8.8%) to opposing tight ends. Additionally, the Dolphins play zone at an above-average rate (74%), while Kelce has PFF's second-highest receiving grade (90.4) against zone coverage.

Raheem Mostert ($12,500) and Jaylen Waddle ($12,000) carry similar salaries, but Mostert's (14.3) projection is a bit higher than Waddle's (12.6). With 25.2-, 41.7-, and 32.7-point outings under his belt, Mostert is someone we have to consider for the multiplier. There's a lot of variance here (two games with fewer than 6.0 points), but the matchup is great on paper.

Kansas City hasn't bled a ton of fantasy points to running backs, but they've surrendered the 11th-highest RB rush success rate (43.5%) and the fourth-most Rushing Net Expected Points per carry (0.07). They've allowed just two rushing scores to running backs, but Mostert's already punched in 10 rushing touchdowns himself and is tied for second with nine attempts inside the five-yard line.

Waddle's target share has jumped to 27.6% over their last four games, and he's averaged a respectable 14.4 FanDuel points per game over that span. However, Hill's still been the clear No. 1 option with a 35.1% target share in that sample. That likely relegates Waddle to flex status, but it's worth noting that he ranks 10th among receivers with 2.77 yards per route run against man coverage, according to PFF.

For as many fantasy points as the Dolphins' give up through the air, they're actually worse against the run.

According to numberFire's nERD-based rankings, the Dolphins rank 12th in pass defense but fall to 28th in rush defense. That could play into the hands of Isiah Pacheco ($11,000). He, too, is coming off a quiet game, but Pacheco averaged 15.6 FanDuel points per game over his previous five outings prior to the Denver game.

Though Pacheco still barely clears a 50% snap share, his 20.3 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) bode well against this 'Fins defense. Miami has allowed the third-most adjusted fantasy points (0.70) and the ninth-highest rush NEP (0.03) per carry to opposing running backs. His value may be entirely game script dependent, however. Kansas City has been tied or trailing after the first quarter in all three games that Pachecho's scored fewer than 10.0 FanDuel points.

Flex Breakdown

Rookie wideout Rashee Rice ($10,000) is the most intriguing non-Kelce pass catcher for the Chiefs. He's yet to eclipse 15.0 FanDuel points, but the underlying numbers are there. He led Kansas City wide receivers in route participation (61%) for the first time last week and has commanded a 14.5% target share and 23.7% red zone target share across the last six weeks. He's scored in two of their last four games, and the Dolphins are tied for the fourth-most receiving touchdowns allowed (nine) to wide receivers.

Outside of Rice, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,000), Kadarius Toney ($7,500), Justin Watson ($7,000), and Skyy Moore ($7,000) are all pretty meh. MVS and Moore are the only ones to eclipse double-digit points in a game this season, but they both did so just once. MVS has eclipsed a 10% target share two weeks in a row, however, and Moore has at least run a route on at least 50% of dropbacks in six of eight games.

Watson hasn't seen more than three targets since Week 2, while Toney's been on the field for just 18.2% of snaps the last two weeks, so I wouldn't bother there.

Jeff Wilson ($8,000) is the only other Miami skill-position player I'd consider. He was pretty much neck and neck with Mostert last year, but his snap shares have been 14.6% and 24.7% during his first two weeks off IR. You'd be taking a pretty big leap of faith playing him.

Both kickers are more than in play here given the high salaries at the top and 50.5-point total. Harrison Butker ($9,500) has a tad higher salary than Jason Sanders ($9,000), mostly due to opportunity. Butker has five games with double-digit points, and he's averaged 11.3 FanDuel points per game the last six weeks. He's attempted 15 field goals over that span, while Sanders has only tried three since Week 2.

It's scary with these two offenses, but I think both defenses are viable. It mostly comes down to salary. Both Miami D/ST and Kansas City D/ST are at $8,500. The Dolphins (8.7%) and Chiefs (9.3%) each rank in the top five in sack rate. KC has racked up 15 over their last three games and now faces a Miami offensive line that will be starting their sixth different O-Line combination of the season.

Both defenses could be in for takeaways, too. The Chiefs' offense is tied for the second-most turnovers per game (2.0), while Miami is tied for the 11th-most (1.5). It's worth noting that Miami D/ST has scored double-digit points just twice this season, whereas Kansas City D/ST has done so five times.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.