FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 14 Monday Night (Titans at Dolphins)

The Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins go head-to-head in one of two Monday night matchups. Let's just say this one isn't expected to be very competitive, though. The Dolphins are 13.5-point home favorites in a game with a 46.5-point over/under, according to the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

This is the rare single-game slate where a wide receiver has the highest projection in numberFire's model, but Tyreek Hill ($17,000) is having that kind of season.

Averaging 22.2 FanDuel points per game -- the third-most across all positions -- Hill boasts a 32.5% target share, 44.2% air yards share, 32.1% red zone share, and 36.0% end zone share. That's amounted to a ridiculous 7.8 receptions and 123.4 receiving yards per game. He's been held out of the end zone just twice this year.

Facing a defense that's 30th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire, and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target to WRs, Hill should continue to pad his gaudy 2023 resume.

Tua Tagovailoa ($14,500) is a close second to Hill in numberFire's model before a rather steep drop-off. The trouble for Tua is that despite playing in a high-powered offense, he often takes a backseat to Miami's running game, particularly when this team gets out to a big lead -- something we ought to see tonight.

However, the Titans are numberFire's fifth-best adjusted rush defense, so perhaps the Dolphins will be content to let Tagovailoa keep slinging it. Among starting quarterbacks, he ranks second in numberFire's Passing Net Expected Points per drop back, sandwiched between MVP favorites Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott.

Both Hill and Tagovailoa should be popular at MVP, so Jaylen Waddle ($11,000), Raheem Mostert ($12,000), and De'Von Achane ($10,500) are the other Miami players to consider.

While Waddle sees nowhere near the same usage as Hill, he still carries a solid 22.9% target share, 29.3% air yards share, 19.1% red zone share, and 26.1% end zone share in his 11 games. Playing in Hill's shadow has resulted in just one FanDuel score above 20 points all season, so that's something to keep in mind. But the matchup is a good one, and he could still post a slate-best score with a little touchdown luck.

As previously noted, this isn't an easy spot for running backs Mostert and Achane, and it's also tricky to predict their touches when both are active. That being said, game script should tip the scales in their favor, and both have demonstrated multi-touchdown upside this year.

Although Achane got the majority of adjusted opportunities (25 to 13) and snaps (59.3% to 39.0%) in Week 13, the bulk of that came in the second half of a blowout win, so a closer game could result in a more even split. Of course, a lopsided victory is well in the realm of possibilities, though. Mostert has the slightly better projection, but Achane's rushing yardage prop is the higher of the two (55.5 to 45.5) on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Touching on the Titans, it's hard to back anyone at MVP with confidence on a near two-touchdown underdog. But if Tennessee is able to keep within striking distance, chances are it's because of a great game from Derrick Henry ($15,000).

Henry is coming off back-to-back performances of 20-plus FanDuel points, averaging 23.5 adjusted opportunities. The downside is he's incredibly game-script dependent, as in the two games prior, he averaged just 13.5 adjusted opportunities.

That makes Henry a risky MVP, but things don't always go as we expect in these island games. While teams are often forced to abandon the run against Miami, the Dolphins are actually just 26th in adjusted rush defense.

Flex Breakdown

Sticking with Tennessee, Will Levis ($13,000) and DeAndre Hopkins ($11,500) are both projected for double-digit FanDuel points, but they're probably better suited as flex-only plays unless you're making a ton of lineups.

After bursting on the scene with four touchdowns in Week 8, Levis has thrown just three across the five games since. Miami is up to fourth in adjusted pass defense, so this probably isn't the game to predict a sudden turnaround.

Predictably, Levis' lack of success puts a damper on Hopkins' ceiling. Over the last five games, D-Hop has scored 8.5, 4.2, 13.9, 6.4, and 16.4 FanDuel points. Still, he could absolutely pay off at this salary, and his role remains fantastic. With Levis under center, Hopkins owns a 26.4% target share, 43.3% air yards share, 26.7% red zone share, and 40.0% end zone share.

If the Dolphins get out to a big lead as expected, Tyjae Spears ($10,000) should see a bump in opportunities as the team's pass-catching back. Since Levis took over, Spears' 14.6% target share is the team's third-best mark. With Henry active, Spears will likely be held to single-digit carries, but he could still do damage as a receiver.

Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo ($7,500) is second in target share (16.3%) with Levis starting, putting him on the map as a value play. However, he typically doesn't accumulate much yardage and likely needs a touchdown for a shot at the optimal lineup -- something he's yet to do all year.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($8,500), Chris Moore ($8,000), and Treylon Burks ($7,500) are the top Titans wideouts behind Hopkins, but they're fringe plays. Westbrook-Ikhine is perhaps the most trustworthy after logging an 89.7% route rate last week. Coming off a concussion, Burks played limited snaps in that game, so his outlook is murky at best.

Miami's offense is pretty much entirely centered around Hill, Waddle, and the running backs, leaving little left for everyone else. Braxton Berrios ($6,500) and Durham Smythe ($6,000) should run over half the routes, but neither one was targeted last week. As of this writing, Smythe's receiving prop is set at 11.5 yards.

On the other hand, the Miami D/ST ($9,500) is intriguing given Levis' struggles. The Titans' QB was sacked six times by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13.

A blowout win for the Dolphins likely leaves the kickers outside the optimal lineup, but Jason Sanders ($9,000) has scored double-digit FanDuel points in each of the last three weeks.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.