FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11 Sunday Night (Vikings at Broncos)
Sunday's primetime matchup features a pair of teams left for dead but find themselves on unlikely winning streaks. The Minnesota Vikings have won five in a row while the Denver Broncos have been victorious in three straight. According to the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, Denver is a 2.5-point home favorite and the over/under is set at 42.5.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.
Joshua Dobbs ($15,000) has been one of this season's feel-good stories, first playing above expectations in Arizona and then landing with the Vikings as an unlikely savior to their season.
While Dobbs hasn't put up gaudy numbers as a passer, his rushing ability elevates his fantasy upside, helping him to five games with 23-plus FanDuel points. He's actually second among QBs in rushing yards, averaging 36.8 yards on the ground per game and cashing in with five rushing scores.
Dobbs will presumably be a chalky MVP option, but a ceiling game wouldn't be surprising against a Denver team that's 32nd in total defense, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.
As of this writing on Friday, it's unclear how realistic of a chance Justin Jefferson ($17,000) has of returning, but if he's active on Sunday night, he's a shoo-in MVP play. In his four full games, Jefferson has a 30.5% target share and 43.3% air yards share. There's little reason to think Dobbs won't be looking his way at a similar clip in their first game together.
With Alexander Mattison ($10,500) dealing with a concussion, his status is up in the air. If he's active, that probably leaves him and Ty Chandler ($10,000) as flex options after the two split work in Week 10. If Mattison is unable to go, though, Chandler moves into potential MVP territory as the lead back against a defense that's coughed up the most FanDuel points per game to running backs.
T.J. Hockenson ($12,000) has an absurd 40.4% target share and 45.5% air yards share over the last two weeks with Dobbs playing the majority of snaps. His usage obviously takes a hit if Jefferson is back, but he's firmly in the conversation for the multiplier slot either way. It can't hurt that Denver has also allowed the most FanDuel points per game to TEs.
Denver is near the bottom in plays per game, adjusted pace, and pass rate over expectation, resulting in Wilson averaging just 29.1 pass attempts per game. While Wilson's offset that by throwing 18 touchdowns -- just one off the NFL lead -- his league-high touchdown rate is due to regress.
All of this admittedly makes him a shaky MVP play, particularly considering QBs tend to be highly-rostered players. The good news is he's running a bit more this season (25.7 yards per game), and this isn't a bad matchup against the 19th-ranked adjusted pass defense. We probably need a negative game script to boost Wilson's pass attempts, but that certainly isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
Williams' appeal is more straightforward. Over the last three games, he's averaged 101.3 scrimmage yards off of 21.0 carries and 3.7 targets as the clear focal point of this offense. Williams has also seen 62.5% red zone carries during this stretch, with Wilson being his only real competition near the goal line.
While the Vikings' defense has been pretty stingy versus the run, that shouldn't deter us from rostering a player who's likely to see north of 20 touches.
Sutton has been the more reliable fantasy play, coming in with a 23.8% target share, 35.5% air yards share, 33.3% red zone share, and 64.3% end zone share. As far and away Wilson's favorite target near the goal line, Sutton has racked up seven touchdowns, which is one behind league-leader Tyreek Hill.
Jeudy's 20.2% target share and 35.2% air yards share mirror what we see from Sutton. The issue is that for whatever reason, Wilson simply doesn't look his way in the red zone (9.1%) or end zone (8.3%), resulting in him scoring just once this season.
Given the low passing volume in this offense, a lot would have to go right for either player to be the optimal MVP, leaving them better suited as flex plays. However, Jeudy did pop up as a late addition to the injury report on Thursday, and if he were to sit out, Sutton would become a whole lot more interesting in the multiplier slot.
After those two, we have the underutilized Marvin Mims ($7,500), who's scored between -1.1 and 0.5 FanDuel points over the last five games. Oof. On the bright side, he saw season-highs in snap rate (69.0%) and route rate (72.7%) out of the bye, so at least he's finally playing more. The bump in snaps makes me more willing to take a shot on talent here despite the lack of recent results.
Adam Trautman ($6,500) is still getting the majority of snaps at tight end, but he's seen more than two targets just twice all season. He's purely a touchdown-or-bust play.
Backup running backs Samaje Perine ($7,000) and Jaleel McLaughlin ($8,000) have mostly been left with scraps behind Javonte Williams lately. We probably can't expect more than a handful of opportunities for either one. Since Williams' bump in snaps, Perine has averaged 1.3 rushes and 3.7 targets per game while McLaughlin's averaged 5.0 rushes and 3.0 targets. If Denver were to get down big, Perine would presumably benefit the most as the pass-catching specialist, though.
In the two games with Dobbs, Addison has been second on the team in target share (20.9%) and air yards share (33.3%). He should remain plenty involved even if Jefferson returns.
Osborn missed last week with a concussion but is practicing in full, so he should be back. In Weeks 1-4 with Jefferson, Osborn had a modest 11.3% target share, whereas that jumped to 20.9% in Weeks 5-8. Considering his lack of high-yardage games, he probably needs a touchdown to crack the optimal lineup, but it's clear that his value takes a massive hit if Jefferson plays.
A healthy Jefferson probably deep-sixes the appeal of Powell, who barely played in Weeks 1-4. But if Jefferson sits, Powell should be out there for roughly 60% of the snaps and see around 3-5 targets.
As a low-total game, this profiles as the ideal scenario to roster kickers, but keep an eye on the forecast, as there's a chance of potential high winds in Denver. Of the two defenses, the Minnesota D/ST ($9,000) is more appealing against a quarterback with the league's fifth-highest sack rate (10.3%).
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