FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Wednesday 1/10/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Tyrese Maxey ($9,000) -- Tyrese Maxey is in line to shoulder the bulk of the Philadelphia 76ers' scoring load with Joel Embiid (knee) out tonight. Maxey has averaged only 39.1 FanDuel points (FP) in seven games without Embiid, but he's rocking a 29.7% usage rate, per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. That'll play tonight against an Atlanta Hawks team that ranks 27th in defensive rating. The slate's second-highest over/under (245.5) hints at a heavy dose of offense.

Terry Rozier ($9,000) -- I'm often reluctant to target Terry Rozier given the low totals for Charlotte Hornets games, but it's hard to ignore his consistent production. Rozier has exceeded 53 FP in three of his last four, averaging 32.5 points and 7.3 assists in the process. Tonight's matchup is easy to get behind. The Sacramento Kings -- 18th in defensive rating and 11th in pace -- are on the second night of a back-to-back while the over/under is a respectable 230.5.

Tre Jones ($5,600) -- Tre Jones should be a popular value play tonight. numberFire projections peg him for 33.4 FP against the Detroit Pistons. At salary, that makes him the best point-per-dollar value on the board. I buy it. Jones has started and played at least 34 minutes in each of the last two games, scoring 33.0 and 30.4 FP in the process. Meanwhile, Detroit has given up the most FP to opposing PGs, according to FantasyPros, and the San Antonio Spurs boast a 120.5 implied total. There's a lot to like here.

Others to Consider

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,500) -- I'll never fault anyone for getting to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, not when he's exceeded 50 FP in 10 of his last 11 games. SGA's salary reflects his slate-leading salary -- no other active player is over $10.3K. He's tied for the highest numberFire projection (52.1) of the slate against a Miami Heat defense that's given up the 10th-most FP to PGs over the last seven games. Guard is deep tonight, but SGA's floor/ceiling combination is unmatched.

T.J. McConnell ($7,000) -- T.J. McConnell's in a nice spot to produce with Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) sidelined, but his salary has jumped accordingly. McConnell paced the team with a 38.6% assist rate and averaged 1.34 FP per minute in Haliburton's three prior absences. However, Andrew Nembhard ($6,000) will likely serve as the starter. He posted a team-leading 28.6% usage rate in that three-game sample, but it's worth noting McConnell still averaged five more minutes. Both are in a good spot tonight, as Indy sports a slate-best 130.5 implied total against a Wizards team that's allowed the second most FP to opposing PGs.

Jaden Ivey ($6,400) -- Fresh off a 39-FP outing, Jaden Ivey has some appeal with Cade Cunningham still out. Ivey is averaging 1.0 FP per minute with Cunningham off the floor this season, and he should serve as a primary option against a Spurs defense that's surrendered the third-most FP to PGs and most FP to SGs. Alec Burks ($6,100) fits a similar mold. He's capped out at 21 minutes in the last three games but has hit 20 FP in five straight.

Wings

Top Plays

Kyle Kuzma ($8,100) -- There aren't many high-salaried wings to choose from tonight, but Kyle Kuzma makes for a quality (and affordable) option. Kuzma had a few quiet games to kick off 2024 before popping off for 22 points, 15 rebounds, and 45.5 FP against Oklahoma City -- a team that's seventh in defensive rating and allows the fewest FP to SFs. Tonight's opponent is astronomically easier, as the Pacers are 26th in defensive rating, allowing the fourth-most FP to SFs and most to PFs. Deni Avdija ($6,700) could thrive in the same matchup, but don't sleep on Bilal Coulibaly ($5,000) or Corey Kispert ($4,500) as value plays. Kispert scored a season-high 23 points the last time these foes met.

Miles Bridges ($7,900) -- Over his last nine games, Miles Bridges has averaged 37.9 minutes, 22.0 points, and 40.1 FP per game. He's exceeded 45 FP four times over that span and tonight faces a Kings defense that he hung 43.5 FP on just three games prior. He carries the highest numberFire projection (41.1) among sub-$9K salary players.

Josh Richardson ($5,000) -- Josh Richardson has flirted with 30 minutes in two of the last three games since returning from injury, but his salary has remained low ahead of their bout with the Oklahoma City Thunder. He's rocking a 26.7-FP projection, making him the top point-per-dollar value at SF and SG. OKC is a tough matchup, but they've given up the fourth-most threes to SGs over the last seven games, and Richardson is shooting 40% from deep since December 1st.

Others to Consider

Jayson Tatum ($10,300) -- Jayson Tatum is coming off a rest game after opening the new year with 56.6, 53.3, and 61.6 FP. I'm not against the idea that Tatum goes berserk in a matchup between the East and West's top seeds, but the game environment isn't ideal. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Boston Celtics sit at No. 1 and No. 2 in defensive rating, and the game's 223.5-point over/under reflects that. That's a tad concerning for Tatum, as well as Anthony Edwards ($9,500) and Jaylen Brown ($8,700). Boston averages 3.6 more points per game at home, so I think we can upgrade the C's even if I don't want a ton of exposure to this game.

Bennedict Mathurin ($5,900) -- With 20 points in four of his last six games, Bennedict Mathurin is primed to continue a torrid scoring stretch sans Haliburton. In three games without their point guard, Mathurin posted a 24.5% usage rate, followed by Bruce Brown Jr. ($5,700) at 23.6%, Aaron Nesmith ($5,900) at 21.7%, and Buddy Hield ($6,200) at 15.1%. No one in that group managed more than 1.0 FP per minute, but Brown and Nesmith did average 23.8 and 22.3 FP per game, respectively. TBD how their wing rotation shakes out, but there's value to be had in this matchup. Washington gives up the sixth-most FP to SGs and the most FP to SFs, after all.

Bigs

Top Plays

Domantas Sabonis ($10,200) -- How can we not run it back with Domantas Sabonis after last night's gem? Sabonis exploded for 37 points, 10 rebounds, and 13 assists in the first night of their back-to-back, exceeding 70 FP for the second time in four games. His matchup tonight is just as tantalizing. The Hornets are 29th in defensive rating and 26th in rebound rate -- plus they've allowed the third-most FP to centers. Ride the hot hand.

Myles Turner ($7,700) -- It's tempting to lean into Myles Turner with Haliburton out. Turner put up 26 FP per game in Hali's three prior absences, but two of those ended in double-digit losses where he played fewer than 23 minutes. Still, he's second only to Haliburton with a 23.2% usage rate on the year, and Indy shouldn't get blown out tonight. They're eight-point home favorites against the Wizards -- a team that allows the most FP to centers and is dead-last in rebound rate. With that, Jalen Smith ($5,400) is in play as a value option. He's fresh off a 30.3-FP outing and has played at least 20 minutes in six of their last eight games.

Paul Reed ($5,500) -- Paul Reed should benefit from Joel Embiid's continued absence tonight. At this salary, he'll be one of the more popular value bigs. Reed notched 23.7 FP in Embiid's place last time out, but he's turned in 37.9- and 41.5-FP nights in the last six games. The matchup is more than ideal, as Atlanta has given up the fifth-most FP to centers while Philly sports a 121.25 implied total. If you dig deeper, Mohamed Bamba ($4,200) makes sense in the same matchup. He's put up a team-leading 1.15 FP per minute with Embiid out, but his minutes fluctuate much more than Reed's.

Others to Consider

Victor Wembanyama ($10,000) -- There's a lot going for Victor Wembanyama tonight. Wemby's put together back-to-back 50-FP outings and now faces a Pistons team that just gave up 72.5 FP to Sabonis. That's hardly the first big that's torched Detroit, as they've allowed the second-most FP to opposing centers. Although Wemby still hasn't exceeded 26 minutes since mid-December, he's averaged a downright silly 1.9 FP per minute over his last seven games.

Trey Lyles ($4,100) -- Trey Lyles returned from a brief absence to play a season-high 31 minutes last night. He only finished with 19.1 FP, but there's value in a player at his salary range playing heavy minutes for Sacramento's 12th-rated offense. numberFire projections have Lyles at 21.5 FP tonight. He's the top point-per-dollar value among PFs up against Charlotte's 29th-rated defense.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.