NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Thursday 3/14/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Thursday 3/14/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA DFS Picks

Thursday's main slate on FanDuel features four games. For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

Fred VanVleet ($8,100) -- Fred VanVleet is in a great spot to produce against a Washington defense that's given up the second-most FanDuel points (FPs) to PGs over the last 15 games, according to FantasyPros. VanVleet went for 21 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists in his first game without Alperen Sengun, so he's set up to stay hot as Houston's primary option. VanVleet's points + rebounds + assists prop is set at 34.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jalen Green ($7,200) -- I'm fine doubling up on Houston guards tonight. The Wizards are a great matchup, and the Rockets have the slate's highest implied total (117.5) after all. Jalen Green has been held under 30 FPs in three of his last four, but he's flashed 50-FP upside in soft matchups.

Alex Caruso ($5,800) -- Alex Caruso is coming off a monster 43.9-FP effort against the Pacers and profiles as a strong value in tonight's bout with the Clippers. Despite a slate-low 214.5 over/under, Caruso's ability to fill up the box score makes him viable in low-scoring game environments. As of Thursday afternoon, numberFire projects Caruso for 28.2 FPs, making him the fifth-best point-per-dollar value at guard (4.86 FPs per $1,000).

Others to Consider

Damian Lillard ($8,700) -- Damian Lillard has flashed a ton of upside since the All-Star break, exceeding 50 FPs in three of his last five games. He's my high-salary guard of choice tonight thanks to his matchup with Philly. The 76ers are 24th in defensive rating over their last 15 games, and Dame exceeded 45 FPs in two previous matchups with them.

Ayo Dosunmu ($6,300) -- Ayo Dosunmu should see more work with Coby White out tonight, and he's in the midst of a strong stretch of games. Since the All-Star break, Ayo is averaging 32.2 FPPG. It helps that the Clippers have given up the fourth-most FPPG to PGs over their last 15 games.

Wings

Top Plays

Jayson Tatum ($10,200) -- Jayson Tatum hasn't had much of a ceiling since the All-Star break, but he's gone for 48 FPs in two of his last three and is playing in a top game environment tonight. He should see more usage than normal with Kristaps Porzingis out and Jaylen Brown questionable, too. Tatum's points prop is set at 29.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kelly Oubre ($6,700) -- Over his last six games, Kelly Oubre is averaging 35 FPPG and has exceeded 20 real-world points four times. He still took 15 shots with Tyrese Maxey back in the lineup on Tuesday, so we can rely on him as a mid-range option.

Corey Kispert ($5,300) -- Corey Kispert has exceeded 20 real-world points in consecutive games, and in five of 10 since the All-Star break. He's gone over 27 FPs five times over that span, as well, so he's a solid value against Houston. The Rockets are up to fifth in pace since the break, so this should be an up-and-down game.

Others to Consider

DeMar DeRozan ($8,400) -- DeMar DeRozan scored 46 actual and 68.3 FanDuel points last night, so we can consider him against the Clippers tonight. He should get a bump with Coby White out, too. According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, DeRozan has registered a 31% usage rate with White off the floor this season.

Bilal Coulibaly ($4,800) -- Bilal Coulibaly is the second-best point-per-dollar value on the slate thanks to his 25.6-FP numberFire projection. The rookie has started to heat up of late, totaling 28.3 and 30.0 FPs over his last two games.

Bigs

Top Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800) -- Giannis Antetokounmpo boasts the slate's highest salary tonight, but he's worth getting to. Giannis provides an elite combination of floor and ceiling on a nightly basis, and he has a nice matchup with Philly. The 76ers are 21st in defensive rating and 27th in rebound rate since the All-Star break. The Greek Freak went for 30 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists against them on February 25th. His points + rebounds + assists prop is set at 50.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Paul Reed ($6,500) -- Despite a tough matchup with Milwaukee, I can get behind Paul Reed as a mid-range option. Reed's come on strong the last four games, averaging 27 minutes and 38.4 FPPG. It helps that the Bucks are down to 21st in rebound rate since the All-Star break. numberFire projects Reed for 29 FPs tonight, third among centers.

Al Horford ($5,900) -- Al Horford is in a nice spot to produce with Porzingis out tonight. In 15 games without him, Horford has averaged 31 minutes and 29.2 FPPG. Phoenix isn't a great matchup for bigs, but they're down to 17th in defensive rating since the All-Star break.

Others to Consider

Jabari Smith ($7,100) -- Jabari Smith started at center in Houston's first game without Alperen Sengun, though he only finished with 32.3 FPs. Still, tonight's matchup with Washington is as soft as it gets. Over their last 15 games, the Wizards are 23rd in rebound rate, 28th in defensive rating, and have given up the most FPPG to PFs.

Jock Landale ($5,600) -- In his first game without Alperen Sengun, Jock Landale scored 11 actual points and 31.3 FanDuel points across 25 minutes. If he's going to be playing that much against the Wizards, he'll be a strong value play. Washington has given up the most FPPG to centers this season, and they're dead-last in rebound rate since the All-Star break. Landale's projected for 27.8 FPs, making him the top point-per-dollar value at the position (4.97 FPs per $1,000).


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.