FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 11/6/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and a lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

Here at FanDuel Research, we'll also come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Tyrese Haliburton ($9,800) -- Tyrese Haliburton is coming off his best DFS performance of the season, dropping 43 points and 12 assists en route to 63.4 FanDuel points on Saturday night. It's not like he was disappointing before that explosion; Hali has scored at least 40 FD points in every game this season. He should feast tonight against a San Antonio Spurs team that plays at the ninth-fastest pace (101.56) and allows the third-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.7) and the fifth-most to opposing shooting guards (25.0), per FantasyPros.

Ausar Thompson ($6,600) -- Rookie Ausar Thompson stuffed the stat sheet on his way to a career-high 53.8 FD points in his most recent outing. The fifth overall pick scored 14 points, grabbed 9 rebounds, dished out 4 assists, and racked up 8 stocks (steals plus blocks). He now ranks sixth with 3.3 stocks per game in addition to an absurd 4.3 offensive rebounds per game -- first among guards and second regardless of position. The Golden State Warriors turn the ball over 15 times a game and have the third-lowest defensive rebound rate (72.8%) in the NBA, setting Thompson up for another stellar all-around performance.

Reggie Jackson ($4,200) -- Reggie Jackson will likely have a high roster rate with Jamal Murray out tonight. He only finished with 23.7 FD points when Murray departed their most recent game but notably played a season-high 25 minutes. There's upside against a New Orleans Pelicans defense that's below-average against guards, but his usage only went up 1.9 percentage points with Murray out last season, per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. He's more of a floor play given the salary.

Others to Consider

Tyrese Maxey ($8,600) -- The Washington Wizards are playing at by far the fastest pace (106.0) in the NBA, simultaneously giving up the third-most FD points per game to opposing point guards (52.83). The Wiz have let up the most assists per game (31.4), and Tyrese Maxey is coming off his first double-digit dime night of the season, so he's a natural play here. The only concern I have is Maxey spending the final period on the bench with the game well in hand, but he's played at least 35 minutes in every game this season -- three of which have come in double-digit wins.

Malik Monk ($5,500) -- Malik Monk has seen his usage spike by 5.6 percentage points with De'Aaron Fox off the court this season, per CourtIQ. That follows last year's trend (+0.4%) and gives him a ton of upside with Fox out against the Houston Rockets. The Rockets have let up the second-most assists per game (10.7) to point guards and the second-most points (25.2) to shooting guards, so the combo guard has value even if Houston's snail-like pace (97.6; third-lowest) and a slate-low 218.5-point total limit his upside.

Wings

Top Plays

Lauri Markkanen ($8,300) -- Lauri Markkanen returns to the Windy City to take on the team that drafted him tonight. Lauri torched the Chicago Bulls for 28 and 32 points last season, and I won't be shocked to see a similar performance tonight. Chicago has the eighth-worst defensive rating (115.0) in the NBA, and they've allowed the fourth-most threes per game (15.1) at the ninth-highest clip (37.9%). The Finnisher has a high floor (30-plus FD points in every game) and is primed for a bounceback after shooting just 7-for-20 in his previous outing.

Keldon Johnson ($7,400) -- The San Antonio Spurs will likely be without Devin Vassell again, which should allow Keldon Johnson to see a nice uptick in usage. He finished with a season-high 43.7 FD points with Vassell out last night, and the matchup is there for a repeat performance tonight. Not only do the Indiana Pacers play at the third-fastest pace (103.3), but they sport the worst defensive rating (119.5) and give up the third-most FD points (45.91) to opposing small forwards. You want as much of this game's 238.5-point total as you can get.

Aaron Gordon ($6,000) -- Aaron Gordon has turned in back-to-back 40-point performances and should again be in for a busy night with Jamal Murray out. Per Court IQ, Gordon's usage rate climbed 4.3% and his FD points per 36 jumped 7.8 points with Murray off the court last season. That trend has continued into 2023-24 with Gordon averaging 7.2 more FD points per 36 with Murray sidelined. The New Orleans Pelicans sport the worst defensive rebound rate (68.8%), and they've consequently given up the most rebounds per game (13.1) to opposing power forwards, so Gordon's in a good spot to produce.

Others to Consider

Jalen Williams ($7,000) -- Jalen Williams hasn't quite taken a sophomore leap thus far, but he's still been a consistent DFS contributor. He's scored at least 30 FD points in each of his last three games and should be in for a bigger role with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander questionable. Per CourtIQ, J-Dub saw his usage (+4.5%) and FD points per 36 (+5.1) rise with SGA off the court last year and that's carried over into this season. The Hawks have given up the eighth-most FD points per game (45.28) to opposing shooting guards, but I'd wait on SGA's final status before plugging him in.

Torrey Craig ($3,900) -- With Patrick Williams relegated to the bench, Torrey Craig has started two straight games for the Bulls. He only got you 18.2 and 21.7 FD points in those starts, but I'm more interested in his minutes. Craig played 23 and then 27 -- his two most active games of the season. The Utah Jazz have allowed the seventh-most FD points (44.9) to small forwards, and they're turning the ball over at the second-highest rate (16.7). Craig (1.2 steals per 36) is in a nice spot to take advantage of that, and you won't find someone at this low of a salary with the potential for 30+ minutes.

Bigs

Top Plays

Nikola Jokic ($11,800) -- Nikola Jokic deserves a look every time he takes the floor, especially when his salary dips under $12,000. Jokic averaged 4.3 FD points per 36 more with Murray off the court last season, and he dropped 28-16-9 with Murray departing early on Saturday night. The Pelicans have given up the eighth-most FD points (56.4) to opposing centers this season, and they have easily the worst defensive rebound rate (65.1%). That bodes well for Jokic; he's quietly averaged a career-high 3.1 offensive rebounds per game thus far. He's the guy I'm building lineups around tonight.

Jalen Duren ($7,400) -- Jalen Duren has cooled off after averaging 49.1 FD points per contest in their first three games, but he's coming off a double-double and is in a good spot to produce against the Golden State Warriors. The Dubs have given up the second-most FD points per game to opposing centers (60.97), and they've allowed the third-highest offensive rebound rate (27.2%) overall. Duren's averaging the fourth-most offensive rebounds per game (4.0), which gives him a stellar floor/ceiling combination tonight.

Goga Bitadze ($4,800) -- Goga Bitadze is a really intriguing value tonight with Wendell Carter Jr. out. He'd played just 11 total minutes before dropping 40 FD points via a 10-point, 10-rebound double-double against the Los Angeles Lakers over the weekend. Assuming he hovers around 25 minutes again, I'm bullish he can flirt with 40 again. The Dallas Mavericks have given up the most points (27.3) and fourth-most rebounds (16.6) per game to opposing centers, so it shouldn't be hard to fit his budget-friendly salary into lineups.

Others to Consider

Joel Embiid ($12,000) -- I touched on how advantageous this spot was for Maxey, but the logic holds true with Joel Embiid. Washington boasts the second-worst defensive rating (118.3) and the worst rebound rate (44.8%) in the league, but Embiid's assists could also be a sneaky source of FD points tonight. He's averaging a career-best 6.2 per contest. As with Maxey, Embiid's only real risk comes with the blowout potential; the Philadelphia 76ers are slate-best 11-point favorites.

Clint Capela ($6,100) -- Clint Capela is coming off his best scoring game (17 points) of the season and has a double-double in four of six games overall. He's been a pretty safe 30 FD points regardless of the matchup, but there's upside for more considering he's only blocked a shot in half his games this year after doing so in 70% of last year's contests. That upside is especially plentiful tonight as the Oklahoma City Thunder have given up the seventh-most FD points (57.8) to centers, including the third-most rebounds (17.5).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.