FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Friday 3/1/24

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Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA DFS Picks

Friday's main slate on FanDuel features seven games but some dramatically different game environments.

For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

Luka Doncic ($12,600) -- Luka Doncic is the clear top option tonight, projected for a slate-high 56.1 FanDuel points (FPs) per numberFire. Luka has come out of the All-Star break red-hot, averaging 70.6 FPPG over the last four. Doncic went for 33 points, 18 rebounds, and 13 assists (77.1 FPs) the last time he faced Boston, so this isn't a matchup to shy away from. Luka is questionable tonight -- a designation he's held throughout the year. If he were to miss, Kyrie Irving ($9,300) would be an excellent pivot against his former team. In five games without Luka, Kyrie has averaged 50.3 FPPG and a 32% usage rate, according to RotoGrinders CourtIQ.

Anfernee Simons ($7,600) -- Shooting guard is not somewhere I'm trying to allocate a ton of salary tonight, but Anfernee Simons has the matchup for a ceiling performance. Simmons has struggled since the All-Star break, averaging 26.2 FPPG thanks to a 36% field goal percentage. That's not great, but his 28% usage rate over that span could come in handy against Memphis. The Grizzlies have allowed the seventh-most FPPG to SGs over their last 15, per FantasyPros. Buy the dip.

Jordan Goodwin ($5,300) -- Memphis could be down to eight healthy players tonight, paving the way for another productive Jordan Goodwin game. The former two-way player has played at least 24 minutes in each of his last three appearances and averaged 27.5 FPPG. Portland is a relatively neutral matchup for guards, but they finished 26th in defensive rating last month. numberFire projects Goodwin for 31.8 FPs, making him the top point-per-dollar value among guards (6.0 FPs per $1,000).

Others to Consider

Stephen Curry ($8,900) -- Anytime Stephen Curry dips under $9K, he's worth a look. That's especially true tonight in Toronto. The Raptors are 28th in defensive rating and 12th in pace over their last 15 games. They've allowed the fifth-most FPPG to PGs over that span. Steph, meanwhile, is fresh off a 45.7-FP outing and appears to have shaken off his post-All-Star game rust. A tight spread (Warriors -3.0) and high total (235.5) make this a game to target. Curry's points prop is set at 27.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Darius Garland ($7,000) -- Darius Garland has standalone value tonight, but there's even more upside here if Donovan Mitchell (questionable) were to miss. DG has averaged 33.8 FPPG in three games against Detroit this season, though one of those came when he was on a minutes restriction. The Pistons have given up the most FPPG to opposing PGs and rank 29th in defensive rating.

Moses Moody ($3,900) -- Moses Moody appears to have locked down a starting role with Andrew Wiggins out for the foreseeable future, so we can absolutely consider him at $3.9K. Moody's started the last two games with Wiggins out, going for 21.1 (in 22 minutes) and 20.3 (in 25 minutes) FPs. There's not much of a ceiling here, but that's solid value at salary and helps open up more high-end upside elsewhere.

Wings

Top Plays

Scottie Barnes ($9,500) -- Is Scottie Barnes taking the leap? His recent play would certainly suggest so. Barnes has come out of the All-Star break on fire, averaging 51.3 FPPG and posting four double-doubles in as many games. He continues to fill up the box score and benefits from a stellar game environment tonight. While Golden State has taken a step forward on defense, they're up to seventh in pace over the last 15 games. That should result in more possessions (and production) for Barnes.

Jonathan Kuminga ($6,600) -- Jonathan Kuminga popped for 48.6 FPs with Andrew Wiggins out last night, a developing trend in Wiggins' absences. Kuminga has now averaged 34.7 FPPG and a 26% usage rate with Wiggins absent, so we can confidently deploy him against the Raptors. In addition to a stellar game environment, Kuminga benefits from a strong positional matchup. Over the last 15 games, Toronto has allowed the most FPPG to SFs.

Herbert Jones ($5,700) -- Herbert Jones was held to 23.3 FPs in Wednesday's matchup with Indiana, but he's in a nice spot to bounce back tonight. Despite Wednesday's result, Indiana has been a fantasy-friendly matchup for forwards this season. Tonight's matchup is an ideal game environment -- it has the slate's third-tightest spread (Pelicans -5.0) and highest total (238.5). Jones' 30.2-FP numberFire projection makes the top point-per-dollar value among SFs (5.29 FPs per $1,000).

Others to Consider

Jayson Tatum ($9,900) -- Jayson Tatum popped for 74.7 FPs the last time he faced Dallas, so there's slate-winning upside here. I'd probably go a different direction if Luka were to miss, but Tatum is well-positioned for a ceiling game assuming both sides are healthy. He's fresh off a clean 56.2 FPs after racking up 29 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists. Tatum's points + rebounds + assists prop is up at 41.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jerami Grant ($7,500) -- Early roster percentage projections across the industry don't have Jerami Grant as a very popular play tonight, but he's a quality mid-range play. Grant went for 47.4 FPs in Tuesday's loss to Miami and exceeded 20 real-world points for the seventh time in 10 games. Over their last 15 games, Memphis has allowed the third-most FPPG to SFs, so Grant is a sharp way to get an edge in larger tournaments.

Buddy Hield ($5,900) -- Buddy Hield has cooled off after a hot start to his Philly tenure, failing to notch 20 FPs in each of his last three games. Still, he's flashed 40-FP upside with the Sixers and has suffered from a slew of tough defenses of late. That shouldn't be the case with Charlotte in town. The Hornets are 27th in defensive rating on the year, and he previously cooked them for 44.3 and 33.2 FPs back on the Pacers.

Bigs

Top Plays

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,200) -- As long as Luka plays, Kristaps Porzingis is my favorite big man to target. He's coming off his best game of the second half, totaling 23 points and 12 rebounds against the 76ers on Tuesday. Another big game isn't out of the question against his former team. Dallas has given up the sixth-most FPs to Cs over their last 15 games, and they're still down at 28th in rebound rate for the year. Porzingis' points + rebounds prop is set at 27.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Evan Mobley ($7,900) -- Evan Mobley went for 25 points, 13 rebounds 4 blocks in Cleveland's loss to Chicago on Wednesday, finishing with 55.1 FPs. Although it game went to double overtime, that's the kind of ceiling we're looking at tonight thanks to his matchup with Detroit. The Pistons are bottom 10 in FPs allowed to both big spots, and they're one of just six teams to allow at least 6 blocks per game.

Duop Reath ($4,800) -- Deandre Ayton is doubtful, so we can expect an uptick for Duop Reath. In 10 previous Ayton absences, Reath has averaged 25 minutes and 25 FPPG. Memphis has given up the sixth-most FPPG to Cs this season, and they'll be without Jaren Jackson Jr.. Consequently, Reath is projected for 29.7 FPs (6.19 FPs per $1,000). That makes him the second-best point-per-dollar value on the slate, regardless of position.

Others to Consider

Zion Williamson ($8,300) -- We wanted a little more from Zion Williamson in Wednesday's loss to Indiana after he was limited to 31.6 FPs. Though he still totaled 23 real-world points in that one, Zion only secured 3 rebounds. Still, he's well-positioned to bounce back in a top game environment against an Indiana defense that allows the second-most FPPG to PFs.

Trey Jemison ($3,900) -- Jemison started the last three games JJJ missed, averaging 26 minutes and 21 FPPG. With a 29.6-FP numberFire projection, Jemison is the top point-per-dollar value on the slate (7.6 FPs per $1,000). There is a degree of risk involved here considering he hasn't even seen the floor the last three games, so I'm open to Jake LaRavia ($3,800) in the same matchup. The former first round pick has averaged 20.3 minutes and 19.3 FPPG in three games since returning from injury. Blazers-Grizzlies has the lowest over/under (208) on the slate, so I don't want too much exposure here, even if there's apparent value.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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