FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Friday 11/3/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and a lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

Here at FanDuel Research, we'll also come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Jalen Brunson ($7,600) -- Jalen Brunson hasn't popped for a truly big game yet this year. It could happen tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee is allowing the eighth-most FanDuel points per night to point guards (50.5) and is a pace-up matchup for the New York Knicks, with the Bucks 10th in pace and the Knicks 26th. Brunson has been cold from the field (37.9% field-goal percentage) but sports a career-best 28.4% usage rate. He's due for a spike game.

Malcolm Brogdon ($6,500) -- The Portland Trail Blazers are going to be sans Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson. That should push Malcolm Brogdon into the starting five today versus the Memphis Grizzlies. In 73 minutes with those two off the floor this year, Brogdon has put up 1.21 FanDuel points per minute on a 30.5% usage rate, per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. He's a rock-solid midrange play who numberFire projects for 34.2 FanDuel points (5.26 per $1,000).

Isaiah Joe ($3,900) -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out tonight, which makes the Oklahoma City Thunder a go-to value spot. Joe could get a start, and if he does, he's easy to love at this salary. Over a small sample of 34 minutes, Joe has averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute this year with SGA off the floor, and his usage rate jumps by 8.9 percentage points in the split.

Others to Consider

Donovan Mitchell ($10,300) -- If Darius Garland sits again and Tyrese Haliburton plays for the Indiana Pacers -- which would give this game a better chance to be competitive -- I'm all in on Donovan Mitchell. Indiana has been a dream DFS matchup thus far, ranking 26th in defensive rating while playing at the 5th-fastest pace. It's a massive pace-up spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who sit dead last in pace. If we get no Garland and Haliburton suits up, Mitchell can break the slate.

Damian Lillard ($8,900) -- After dropping 54.6 FanDuel points in his Bucks debut, Damian Lillard hasn't topped 36.0 FanDuel points in the three games since. His current 26.7% usage rate is his lowest since 2013-14. But he's not going to keep shooting 29.0% from deep and could fly under the radar in a meh matchup with the Knicks.

Jamal Murray ($7,400) -- The Denver Nuggets' 115.25-point implied total is the third-highest on the slate, and my preferred way to get a piece of the Nugs is via Jamal Murray. The Dallas Mavericks are playing at the third-slowest pace but own the sixth-worst defensive rating. Murray -- who has played at least 32 minutes in all but one game this season -- can take advantage.

Wings

Top Plays

Desmond Bane ($8,100) -- Desmond Bane continues to project well for the short-handed Memphis Grizzlies. Bane's 29.1% usage rate is a career-best clip by 3.0 percentage points. The DFS production hasn't always been there so far, but he's flashed a good ceiling, going off for at least 48.7 FanDuel points in two of his five games this year. The Blazers -- a team that is 28th in defensive rating -- provide Bane with a chance to show his upside tonight.

Jalen Williams ($6,700) -- Previously projecting well even with SGA in the lineup, Jalen Williams is a tough fade tonight with SGA out. OKC's matchup with the Golden State Warriors could be ideal for DFS as both teams sit in the top three in pace. The 227.5-point total is a slate-leading mark by 2.5 points. The only concern is blowout potential with Shai out, but the spread is just 5.5 points.

Andrew Wiggins ($5,000) -- Andrew Wiggins' salary has fallen $1,800 since the opener as he's posting quiet game after quiet game, topping 15.4 FanDuel points only once this campaign. But the underlying stats are solid, including a 22.1% usage rate that's actually higher than his 21.5% usage rate from a year ago. What's killing him is that he's averaging just 2.2 rebounds, 0.6 assists and 0.6 combined blocks/steals. Those numbers were at 5.0, 2.3 and 2.0, respectively, last season. He's going to turn it around at some point, and this fast-paced affair versus OKC could be the night.

Others to Consider

Jimmy Butler ($8,300) -- If you could guarantee me that the Miami Heat-Washington Wizards clash stays competitive, Jimmy Butler would be my favorite play of the night. Washington is permitting the most FanDuel points per night to small forwards (49.5). The obvious concern is blowout risk as Miami is a 9.5-point home favorite -- it's the lone spread on the slate bigger than 6.5 points.

Jerami Grant ($6,100) -- Jerami Grant probably won't be as popular as Brogdon. In the split without Simons and Scott, Grant's numbers are rather blah (0.76 FanDuel points per minute on a 22.3% usage rate). But that's from a meager 42-minute sample, and Memphis is surrendering the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to power forwards (49.6).

Bigs

Top Plays

Jaren Jackson, Jr. ($8,500) -- Power forward and center are pretty loaded on this slate. Jaren Jackson Jr. can be a slate-breaker on Friday. Portland has allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to centers (59.0), including the third-most blocks per night to the position (3.22). After averaging 4.0 combined steals/blocks last year, JJJ has posted more than three steals/blocks in only one game. He's due and can smash against Portland.

Evan Mobley ($8,200) -- Evan Mobley erupted for 61.3 FanDuel points against the Pacers three games ago, and I like his chances for another big outing as long as Jarrett Allen -- who is questionable -- remains sidelined. As mentioned earlier, Indiana (fifth in pace) is a colossal pace-up matchup for Cleveland (last), and the Pacers are also a bottom-five squad in defensive rating.

Brook Lopez ($5,200) -- numberFire's model loves Brook Lopez (as of early Friday), projecting him for 28.2 FanDuel points (5.43 per $1,000). It's not just numberFire as Lopez projects well across the industry. It has nothing to do with the matchup as New York is tough on centers. It's all about Lopez's tanking salary, which was $7,000 in Milwaukee's opener.

Others to Consider

Nikola Jokic ($11,900) -- Nikola Jokic is an excellent play every time he's on the slate. He's had three underwhelming -- by his standards and salary -- outings and two games of 60.0-plus FanDuel points. Dallas has struggled against centers, giving up 55.8 FanDuel points per game to the position (the ninth-most). Obviously, Jokic can go off in any matchup, but I prefer to get Denver exposure tonight through Murray and/or Aaron Gordon ($6,000).

Bam Adebayo ($8,400) -- I could copy and paste what I said about Jimmy. If the Heat-Wiz game stays close and Bam Adebayo gets his full minutes, he's capable of a monster outing. Given the other quality options at center and the blowout risk, Bam profiles as a sweet tourney play, and if you use him (or Jimmy), someone like Jordan Poole ($6,700) correlates well since you're banking on Washington to keep it close.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.