FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Friday 1/12/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Tyrese Maxey ($9,400) -- Joel Embiid (knee) is out again tonight, so I'm more than willing to build around Tyrese Maxey. In his most recent outing, Maxey finally had the solo ceiling game we'd been looking for, notching 35 points, eight rebounds, and nine steals en route to 67.1 FanDuel points (FP). A healthy 241.0-point over/under lends itself to more offense for the Philadelphia 76ers, so getting Maxey at this salary feels like excellent value.

Jalen Green ($6,400) -- Jalen Green's been held under 40 FP in all six of the Houston Rockets' games to start the new year, but there's a lot to like in his matchup with the Detroit Pistons. Per FantasyPros, Detroit has given up the most FP to PGs and the fourth-most to SGs. He went for 22 points and 32.5 FP when they matched up earlier this month.

Tre Jones ($5,600) -- Tre Jones checks a lot of boxes tonight. The game environment is good -- 235.0 over/under and 120.75 implied total. The matchup is good -- the Charlotte Hornets are 29th in defensive rating and have let up the 10th-most FP to PGs over the last 15 games. And the recent production is good -- Jones has averaged 28 minutes and 24.7 FP over his last eight. numberFire projects Jones for 29.7 FP tonight, making him the second-best point-per-dollar value among guards (as of Friday afternoon).

Others to Consider

T.J. McConnell ($6,700) -- I'm not entirely sure why T.J. McConnell's salary dropped from $7K to $6.7K after a 34.4-FP night, but I'm certainly not complaining. McConnell racked up 14 points and eight assists over 22 minutes in the Indiana Pacers' first game without Tyrese Haliburton. The backup PG went for 36.6 FP with Haliburton in the lineup against this same Atlanta Hawks squad just four games prior, so he should have a nice floor in an expanded role. This boasts a slate-leading 252.0 over/under.

Mike Conley ($5,700) -- There's a fair amount of value at guard tonight, but I'm intrigued by Mike Conley. The veteran sat out the Minnesota Timberwolves' most recent game, but he put together a 34.6-FP double-double the night prior. He'll benefit from the Portland Trail Blazers' 21st-rated defense tonight, which should allow him to put together a quality outing even if the 15.5-point favorites bench their starters early.

Josh Richardson ($4,700) -- Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Kyle Lowry are all doubtful tonight, so we can turn to Josh Richardson as a salary saver. According to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ, Richardson has averaged 22.4 FP with Butler out and 21.9 FP sans Herro. The two have missed the same game only three times, but Richardson's production bumped up to an average of 26.7 FP in such outings.

Wings

Top Plays

Desmond Bane ($8,900) -- The Memphis Grizzlies suffered another injury in their back court, losing Marcus Smart for at least the next six weeks. That'll force even more usage Desmond Bane's way. In 13 games without both Smart and Ja Morant, Bane has seen a 29.8% usage rate and averaged 39.4 FP per game. The Los Angeles Clippers have a stout defense, but they've been middle of the pack (14th) in FP allowed to SGs over their last 15 games.

Tobias Harris ($7,600) -- Like Maxey, Tobias Harris should benefit from Joel Embiid's absence, and Harris comes at a much lower salary. In eight games sans Embiid, Harris has seen a 24.6% usage rate and averaged 37 FanDuel points per game. He's exceeded 50 FP in two of the last three without Embiid, most recently producing a 32-point, 10-rebound, 52-FP performance earlier this week. He's a fun pairing alongside Maxey if you buy the 241.0-point over/under (I do).

Nicolas Batum ($4,300) -- I'm really interested in stacking this Kings-76ers matchup, and Nicolas Batum serves as the perfect salary saver. Batum's minutes had been capped upon returning from injury, but Philly turned him lose for 37 minutes the last time out. He's exceeded 20 FP in each of his last two games and should see a few more looks with Embiid out. numberFire pegs Batum for 24.6 FP, making him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate.

Others to Consider

Jalen Johnson ($7,900) -- It'd be hard for me to play this Pacers-Hawks game without some exposure to Jalen Johnson. The combo forward is coming off a monster 62.7-FP game, and he's now recorded at least 39 FP in four of his last six games. Tonight's 128.75 implied total is reason enough to get behind Johnson, and Indy allowing the most FP to PFs and fourth-most to SFs seals the deal.

Bruce Brown ($5,800) -- Bruce Brown Jr. looks to be one of the main beneficiaries of the Haliburton injury, recording 41.8 FP in the first game without Indy's star PG. He has a chance to light it up again tonight considering the Pacers' 123.25 implied total. The Pacers' rotation is pretty up in the air with Aaron Nesmith ($5,400) and Jalen Smith ($5,000) both questionable. Brown would get an upgrade if either of those two missed -- as would Bennedict Mathurin ($5,700), Obi Toppin ($4,900), and Isaiah Jackson ($4,800). I want at least a piece of these Pacers' wings -- the Hawks let up the fifth-most FP to SGs, eighth-most to SFs, and fourth-most to PFs.

Luke Kennard ($4,500) -- Eventually, Luke Kennard's salary will rise, but we should enjoy playing him as a value while we can. The sharpshooter is fresh off his best fantasy performance since returning from injury, amassing 27 FP the last time out. His minutes have slowly ticked up in each of the last four, and there should be plenty of shots to go around without Morant and Smart. A little revenge narrative against his former team doesn't hurt, either.

Bigs

Top Plays

Domantas Sabonis ($9,900) -- Domantas Sabonis has gone for 70 FP in two of his last five games and has notched at least 38 FP in 15 straight. Yet, his salary is still a tick under $10K -- something we should take advantage of. His matchup is good enough to keep the hot stretch rolling tonight, as the 76ers -- already just 14th in rebound rate on the year -- will be without Embiid. Sabonis should cook Philly's backup bigs, and he makes for an excellent game stack opposite Maxey.

Paul Reed ($5,800) -- Paul Reed is in line for another start tonight, so he's a viable salary saver. Reed has filled in admirably in Embiid's absences, averaging 27.5 FP in the split. He'll have a good chance to match that tonight against a Kings team that's league-average in defensive rating and rebound rate. They've been stout against centers of late, but a healthy 241.0-point over/under should lead to plenty of opportunities for Reed in an extended role.

Jaden McDaniels ($4,500) -- Jaden McDaniels has a nice opportunity to get back on track tonight against an abysmal Blazers squad. McDaniels has flashed big-time fantasy performances but has been kept under 30 FP for nine straight games. That could change tonight. Portland has given up the fourth-most FP to SFs over their last 15 games, and the 23-year-old should continue to see 30-plus minutes even if Minnesota goes up big.

Others to Consider

Victor Wembanyama ($10,000) -- Victor Wembanyama needed only 21 minutes to record a triple-double last time out -- though he hasn't exceeded 26 minutes since mid-December. Still, he's easy to consider against a Hornets squad that's 29th in defensive rating, 27th in rebound rate, and has given up the most FP to centers over the last 15 games. Wemby is a points-per-minute monster, but I do worry about his ceiling compared to the upside of the other high-salary bigs.

Alperen Sengun ($8,900) -- The matchup is there for a ceiling game from Alperen Sengun. He's up against the Pistons -- the team Wemby torched for a triple-double in 21 minutes on Wednesday and the squad that has allowed the second-most FP to centers. Houston's implied total (117.0) isn't jaw-dropping, but a 28.4% usage rate should give Sengun plenty of opportunities to rack up stats. Despite his large salary, Sengun is numberFire's second-best point-per-dollar value among centers thanks to a 47.3-FP projection.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.