MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Saturday 6/22/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Saturday 6/22/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitchers to Target

Logan Gilbert ($10,600)

There is no shortage of top-shelf pitching on Saturday's main slate, but Logan Gilbert ($10,600) of the Seattle Mariners gets the cash-game nod for me.

Seattle's right-handed monster of a rotation gives us a lens into targeting what is essentially they're entire staff in a series, and the host Miami Marlins didn't give a strong sign they've figured anything out in the split on Friday as George Kirby posted 34 FanDuel points without a win as Seattle's offense scuffled.

Miami is tied for the league's second-worst team OPS against righties in June (.605) with its seventh-highest strikeout rate (24.4%) in the split during this month. They've proven to be a cupcake for high-quality ones like Gilbert.

As a member of the aforementioned monster, Gilbert has turned in a beautiful 2.93 ERA that's well-supported by expected ERA (3.13 xERA) and skill-interactive ERA (3.45 SIERA). He's also generated a whiff on 13.8% of his pitches -- 10th-best in all of baseball.

If Seattle can eek out just slightly more offense than they did on Friday, Gilbert will be in a solid position to top 40 FanDuel points.

Bailey Ober ($9,400)

Repeat matchups can be a bit scary -- but less so if its the Oakland Athletics getting two cracks.

Oakland's start in April feels like a fever dream at this point, returning to their season-long expectation in earnest this month. They've posted the league's fourth-worst OPS against righties in June (.632) but remain a staple to target in daily fantasy behind a league-high 26.3% punchout rate in the split this month. Bailey Ober ($9,400) will try to re-rack his performance from Sunday in Oakland's pitcher-friendly venue.

Ober fanned 8 Athletics batters over 6.1 innings on Sunday, allowing just a single run in the process. It was the start of the year for the gangly right-hander that's 3.82 SIERA suggests better days ahead than a 4.81 ERA. Ober's 12.4% swinging-strike rate would also be in MLB's top 25 if it qualified.

I've targeted Ober for a while in the $8,000 range, so it is a bit more of a decision as FanDuel's salary-makers planned ahead for this sublime matchup. Still, even on a slate of aces, I can't leave him behind at a four-digit mark.

Others to Consider

  • Zack Wheeler ($10,500)
    • One of these aces will go bananas, and I just don't believe it'll be Wheeler in a brutal matchup. The Arizona Diamondbacks have posted a 134 wRC+ and miniscule strikeout rate (18.3%) against orthodox pitchers this month.
  • Zach Eflin ($7,800)
    • With no Coors Field on the slate, spending down at pitcher will be contrarian. Eflin is poised for a solid outing behind his own effectiveness (3.44 xERA) and the impotence of the opposing Pittsburgh Pirates offense (86 wRC+ vs. RHP this month).

Stacks to Target

Philadelphia Phillies

The Fightin' Phils have lost a bit of steam with just six runs in consecutive losses the past two days. This spot couldn't be better to get it back.

In addition to Wheeler on the bump, Philadelphia has a dreamy matchup to score against Arizona's Tommy Henry. Henry's 6.32 ERA and identical 6.32 xERA got him a temporary boot from the Snakes' rotation. He's in the 10th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, expected batting average (xBA), and average exit velocity. Oof.

The D-Backs' bullpen is also limping into this matchup with MLB's fourth-worst SIERA (4.36) this month.

Of course, the bevy of aces made an elite offense like the Phillies tough to prioritize in unison, but the best parts of this stack are definitely workable. Alec Bohm ($3,200), Nick Castellanos ($2,700), and Edmundo Sosa ($2,700) all have at least a .150 ISO in Philly's top six. Plus, Ober makes aKyle Schwarber ($4,100), Bryce Harper ($3,900), or Trea Turner ($3,600) addition a bit more realistic.

Philadelphia will be chalky, but I don't see the path to avoiding them when Henry has been so reliably awful.

Minnesota Twins

Another team looking to rebound off a rough Friday is the Twins.

They dropped their opener against the A's, which is never a good look. They'll have a workable matchup against Oakland's JP Sears in this one.

The former New York Yankees prospect just hasn't figured it out in MLB quite yet. He's got a 4.25 ERA, but it's ballpark-aided when a 4.95 SIERA lurks in the distance. Sears' flyball splits are a riddle when he's allowed one at a 40.0% clip with a 47.1% hard-hit rate, yet he's only suffered 1.20 HR/9 against him.

Similar to the Diamondbacks, Oakland enters this one with the league's worst reliever SIERA in June (4.51), too.

Royce Lewis ($4,500) is arguably baseball's best hitter at present, so his lofty salary is always fine if you can make it work -- and the same goes for Carlos Correa ($3,700). Yet, there are value components that even work with Gilbert; Carlos Santana ($3,100), Ryan Jeffers ($2,900), and Manuel Margot ($2,500) also carry at least a 110 wRC+ in the split.

Minnesota's lower implied total (4.48) is undoubtedly a product of the stadium they're playing in, but the pitching matchup couldn't be better for one of MLB's best offenses in the past 30 days -- coinciding with Lewis' return.

Others to Consider

  • Texas Rangers
    • Michael Wacha might be an underrated target on today's slate; his low HR/FB ratio (7.4%) is hiding some issues as the Kansas City Royals' bullpen continues to scuffle. Texas' top bats could make some noise.
  • Tampa Bay Rays
    • The more I searched into a case for Jared Jones, the more I leaned into Tampa's curiously high implied team total (4.25) facing him. Jones is in the 15th percentile for hard-hit rate against a Rays offense getting pieces like Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, and others back recently.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.