FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball NLCS Helper: Diamondbacks at Phillies, Game 7

The Arizona Diamondbacks got up early in the second inning last night and never looked back, forcing a Game 7. Hopefully, it's a bit more competitive than the one we saw in the ALCS. Will the Philadelphia Phillies go back to their home-run mashing ways on Tuesday, or will Arizona complete the upset to advance?

For those unfamiliar with the single-game daily fantasy baseball format, scoring is identical to its full roster cousin, except you only roster hitters, and lineups consist of five flex spots. The one twist? One of the five roster spots is your designated "MVP," who receives twice his total fantasy points, along with a "STAR" slot that gets 1.5 times the points. Naturally, it's crucial that you choose your MVP and STAR carefully if you want to be at the top of the leaderboards when it's all said and done.

On that note, let's highlight some of the top options for today's FanDuel single-game slate.

Pitching Breakdown

This is a tricky matchup to break down from a pitching perspective because starters Brandon Pfaadt and Ranger Suarez are unlikely to go deep into this game. Despite both pitchers performing well this postseason, neither one has exceeded 70 pitches in a start, and both teams are wary of letting these two face the opposing lineup a third time.

And with this being a Game 7, it's all hands on deck, so these teams will be unloading all their best bullpen arms, and even frontline starters like Zac Gallen and Zack Wheeler are expected to be available.

Pfaadt has been particularly impressive despite modest regular season numbers. Through three playoff outings, the right-hander has produced a 2.82 xFIP, 31.3% strikeout rate, and 2.1% walk rate. This may not be entirely a fluke, either, as he put up a 3.70 xFIP, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 3.6% walk rate over the final month of the regular season.

Suarez has been no slouch, though. Across his three postseason starts, he's recorded a 3.36 xFIP, 25.5% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate, and 55.6% ground-ball rate. He was closer to league average in the regular season, so much like Pfaadt, the decision to limit his times through the order has paid off.

In all, both offenses could have their work cut out for them to score runs.

Slate Strategy

While Philadelphia's star bats fell silent on Monday, I'm guessing that does little to drop the roster percentages of Bryce Harper ($9,500), Kyle Schwarber ($9,000), and Trea Turner ($8,500) as chalky MVP/STAR plays. Much like most of these NLCS games, these three have the shortest odds to hit a home run, per the MLB odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Given their results, it isn't shocking that all three have made tons of loud contact in the playoffs. Schwarber leads the team in barrel rate (27.6%) and is second in hard-hit rate (62.1%). Harper follows close behind in barrel rate (25.0%) while Turner has the edge in hard-hit rate (63.2%). Turner hasn't stolen a base in the series, but we know he's capable of adding points on that front, too.

Considering all the moving parts on the pitching side, we probably can't lean too much into the matchups, but if nothing else, Harper and Schwarber will have the platoon advantage versus Pfaadt. In the regular season, Pfaadt had a lackluster 4.73 xFIP in the split, and he didn't see much improvement even down the stretch.

J.T. Realmuto ($7,500) and Nick Castellanos ($7,000) are strong flex options, and they should see considerably less attention at MVP/STAR if you're looking for more contrarian Philadelphia options. This postseason, Realmuto has a 48.6% hard-hit rate while Castellanos is rocking a 21.9% barrel rate. They have the next-best home run odds behind the previous three.

Of the value Phillies, Alec Bohm ($5,500) is technically an option if he remains in the cleanup spot, but he's been one of the team's least productive postseason hitters, making him awfully hard to trust. I'm more inclined to try and get up to Brandon Marsh ($6,000) in this range, as he's got a hit in eight straight games and even has five playoff barrels (23.8% rate).

For Arizona, Ketel Marte ($8,000) is getting a lot of buzz for his historic career postseason hitting streak, which includes 11 straight games with a hit in these 2023 playoffs. He leads the team with a .433 wOBA and has also produced plenty of barrels (26.1%) and hard hits (55.6%). He ought to be the D-Back who draws the most MVP/STAR attention.

Corbin Carroll ($7,500) and Christian Walker ($7,000) have been fairly quiet in this series, making them potential buy-low options at their respective salaries. But they could also see reduced roster percentages at MVP/STAR, which is intriguing if you're building a lineup with an Arizona win in mind.

If Carroll can get on base, he ought to have the green light after the Diamondbacks swiped four bags in Game 6; he had 54 stolen bases in the regular season. He was a menace at the plate earlier in the playoffs, too.

Walker continues to see the shortest home run odds for Arizona -- more or less tied with Realmuto and Castellanos -- and his 26.1% barrel rate is on par with some of the hot postseason hitters despite just one dinger to his name. He'll have the platoon advantage against Suarez, who was less imposing versus righties this year (4.37 xFIP; 44.8% ground-ball rate).

Lourdes Gurriel ($6,500) might end up being somewhat of an afterthought at this salary, but he has the fourth-best hard-hit rate on the team (52.9%) and slugged a home run in Game 6.

Arizona will presumably stick with Gabriel Moreno ($5,500) as their number-three hitter, and if that's the case, he slots in as a solid value play. Since moving up the order, his fantasy production has been muted outside of Game 4, but he has a five-game hit streak going.

Evan Longoria ($5,000) remains a potential punt despite a 38.5% strikeout rate and obvious pinch-hit risk. That's because he's still showing a 75.0% hard-hit rate that's the highest among regulars on either team. His home run odds are equal to Marte's and not far behind guys like Gurriel and Tommy Pham ($6,000).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.