FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 10/4/23

The Wild Card round continues on Wednesday, and chances are we see at least one team eliminated. The festivities begin again at 3:08 PM ET.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Freddy Peralta ($10,600) dominated down the stretch, posting a 2.54 xFIP, 36.3% strikeout rate, and 5.6% walk rate after the All-Star break. While the Milwaukee Brewers won't be messing around in an elimination game if Peralta struggles, they've shown a willingness to let him go 100-plus pitches when needed, so he ought to pitch deep into the game if he's dealing.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are a middle-of-the-pack offense and have the day's lowest implied team total (3.59). In terms of ceiling, Peralta looks like the guy today.

That being said, Aaron Nola ($8,700) is likely to be the most popular play given his value salary. The Miami Marlins are one of the least imposing offenses in the playoffs, and Zack Wheeler dominated them for 51 FanDuel points yesterday.

Nola has had a down year by his standards, most notably seeing his strikeout rate drop to 25.5%, his lowest mark since 2016. However, he's still demonstrated the ability to pop for big performances, and he wrapped up the campaign with back-to-back starts of eight punchouts, one of which came against the vaunted Atlanta Braves.

On a slate where you can make the case for pretty much every pitcher, getting someone with Nola's track record at a discount is appealing.

Zac Gallen ($10,200) and Zach Eflin ($9,100) are arguably the best of the rest.

Brandon Pfaadt lasted just 2 2/3 innings on Tuesday, yet the Diamondbacks still came away with the victory. This sets the stage for Gallen to deliver the finishing blow to the Brewers, and Arizona will be more than happy to let their bullpen rest if their ace is pitching well.

The Brewers' active roster has a mere 91 wRC+ versus righties, making this one of the better matchups on the board. Gallen's profile isn't all that different from Nola's, so he could see a lower roster percentage in tournaments at his salary.

Eflin actually profiles as one of the slate's better arms, coming in with a 3.30 SIERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, 3.4% walk rate, and 49.8% ground-ball rate. However, as we saw with Tyler Glasnow yesterday, the Texas Rangers' bats are no joke. I'm also concerned that the Tampa Bay Rays -- with their season on the line -- will give Eflin a quick hook at the smallest sign of trouble.

Hitting Breakdown

The Philadelphia Phillies have a slate-best 4.38 implied total as they look to knock out the Marlins.

Much like Tuesday's starter Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett is a quality lefty, but the Phillies have enough righty power to give him trouble. When facing righties, Garrett's 23.3% K rate isn't too frightening, and he's allowed 1.26 home runs per 9 innings off a 43.7% FanGraphs hard-hit rate.

Once again, we'll want to look to righties Trea Turner ($3,700), Nick Castellanos ($3,500), J.T. Realmuto ($3,100), and Alec Bohm ($3,000). The overall power upside of lefties Bryce Harper ($4,000) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,900) keeps them in play, as well.

The Tampa Bay Rays failed to put up any runs yesterday, but they're still a top stack against Nathan Eovaldi.

Eovaldi was outstanding for much of the season, but he's struggled since returning from a forearm injury in early September. Over his past six starts, he's produced a 5.03 xFIP, 21.4% strikeout rate, and 13.3% walk rate, and his velocity has been well below what we saw in April and May.

Considering Eovaldi managed just a 19.7% strikeout rate versus lefties over the entire season, Josh Lowe ($3,600) is probably the most intriguing Rays hitter in what will otherwise be a righty-heavy lineup. Among said righties, Yandy Diaz ($3,700), Randy Arozarena ($3,700), Isaac Paredes ($3,400), and Jose Siri ($3,000) all pack some power.

The Minnesota Twins are riding high after breaking their lengthy postseason losing streak, and they might be able to add a second win if they can get to Jose Berrios.

Berrios has been around league average in 2023, and it's the lefties who've typically gotten to him, launching 1.49 home runs per 9 innings off a 38.3% fly-ball rate.

We're getting a lot of value here via switch-hitter Jorge Polanco ($3,200) and then lefties Max Kepler ($3,100), Alex Kirilloff ($3,000), Edouard Julien ($3,000), and Matt Wallner ($2,700). However, keep in mind that the Twins aren't afraid to lift their lefties early, as all of Kirilloff, Julien, and Wallner didn't finish Tuesday's game.

If you want to avoid that mess, you can always stick with Polanco and include him with righties like Game 1 hero Royce Lewis ($4,100) and Carlos Correa ($3,000). Lewis is way up there in salary, but his .240 ISO is one of the team's best.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.