FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 10/11/23

Following yesterday's results, we're already down to three series left in this round, leaving us with a three-game Wednesday slate that begins at 5:07 pm ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers will try to avoid the same fate as the Baltimore Orioles, while the Minnesota Twins are also on the brink of elimination.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Good luck feeling comfortable rostering any pitcher tonight, but that's the reality of these postseason slates, particularly with some teams dipping into their third or fourth options.

Aaron Nola ($10,100) has the best overall track record of anyone taking the mound, yet he's coming off an up-and-down regular season and is tasked at silencing a frightening Atlanta Braves lineup. Nola threw seven innings of shutout ball in the Wild Card round against the Miami Marlins, though he also only recorded three punchouts, which probably won't get the job done versus the Braves.

Still, Nola is capable of dominating when he's at his best, and he had an eight-strikeout game against Atlanta just last month. Overall, he's posted a 3.75 SIERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate this year. He's also probably one of the only pitchers we can reasonably expect to reach a pitch count in the 90s if all goes well.

Joe Ryan ($9,900) leads the slate with a 29.3% strikeout rate, but similar to Nola, the matchup is brutal against the Houston Astros. That being said, most of Ryan's metrics are that of an ace, as all those Ks come alongside a 3.44 SIERA and 5.1% walk rate.

However, his weakness is a big one. He's also giving up 1.78 home runs per 9 innings off a 49.9% fly-ball rate, and it's not like he's facing the Washington Nationals tonight. Given the way the Astros are hitting -- and particularly Yordan Alvarez -- Ryan could quickly spell the end for Minnesota if he can't keep the ball in the park.

If he can -- which is a big if -- there is potential upside, though. Ryan has a tantalizing 32.8% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate in same-handed matchups, which lines up well for him versus this righty-dominant lineup. Of course, handling the left-handed Alvarez is another story, but that's what we're dealing with tonight.

There's no doubt that Ryan will have a very short leash in this elimination game, but the same can be said for our next guy, Lance Lynn ($9,100).

Oh, boy. I'm sure having the season on the line with Lynn on the mound isn't how the Dodgers envisioned these playoffs going, but here we are. At first glance, the veteran righty put up roughly league-average numbers with a 4.33 SIERA, 23.6% strikeout rate, and 8.3% walk rate -- except he also gave up a league-high 44 dingers.

Even more concerning, Lynn has arguably been worse since joining Los Angeles, showing a 5.37 xFIP and 17.2% strikeout rate over 11 outings.

Our one hope here is that the Arizona Diamondbacks are a far less scary matchup compared to the other offenses tonight, and Lynn should face his fair share of righties, theoretically boosting his upside. Lynn has a 3.90 xFIP and 27.3% strikeout rate versus righties, whereas those marks worsen to a 5.16 xFIP and 20.0% strikeout rate against lefties.

Hitting Breakdown

Considering the state of tonight's pitching, we could see offense come from just about anywhere.

But the obvious starting point is stacking the Los Angeles Dodgers against Brandon Pfaadt. The Dodgers own a slate-best 5.03 implied team total, one of the highest marks we've seen this postseason. Pfaadt has really struggled with home runs this season, giving up 2.06 per 9 innings.

While the right-hander was actually quite effective in same-handed matchups over the final two months (3.37 xFIP; 27.1% strikeout rate), that was less the case facing lefties (4.55 xFIP; 23.6% strikeout rate). Freddie Freeman ($4,400) and Max Muncy ($3,700) are the guys to build around, and this could be the matchup that finally gets this Dodgers lineup going.

The Braves announced that they are starting Bryce Elder against the Philadelphia Phillies after toying with the idea of going with 20-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver.

The matchup against Elder greatly benefits the Phillies' lefties. In the split, he's put up a 5.17 xFIP, 14.4% strikeout rate, and 9.2% walk rate this year. He also faded badly over the summer.

This sets the stage for Bryce Harper ($4,100) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,700) to lead the way, and Brandon Marsh ($2,800) should be back in the lineup for a value lefty.

Given the Smith-Shawver was a starting option, it's possible we see him in this game, too. The top prospect is short on experience, having pitched just 25 1/3 MLB innings this season. Although he may have a bright future ahead of him, a 5.25 SIERA, 19.0% strikeout rate, and 10.5% walk rate all suggest he might not be ready for the bright lights just yet.

He's especially struggled against lefties in this limited sample (6.57 xFIP), only further adding to the appeal of Philadelphia's lefties if Smith-Shawver enters the game.

I noted that both Joe Ryan and Lance Lynn get roughed up by lefties -- I'm sensing a theme here -- so they're the ones to start with if you're banking on those home run woes continuing. For the Houston Astros, Yordan Alvarez ($4,200) is a no-brainer, and Kyle Tucker ($4,000) and Michael Brantley ($2,700) are the other lefty starters. Corbin Carroll ($4,500) and Ketel Marte ($3,600) are the key options on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Atlanta Braves have perhaps the toughest matchup, but they're too talented to leave off the table if you aren't starting Aaron Nola. At what will probably be lower popularity than usual, this might actually be the rare occasion we can roster them as a contrarian stack.

Finally, the Minnesota Twins have one of the better matchups against right-hander Jose Urquidy, but they might not draw the same attention as the Dodgers or Phillies. Since coming off the IL in early August, Urquidy's managed just a 5.66 xFIP, 14.5% strikeout rate, and 9.9% walk rate.

Royce Lewis ($4,200), Carlos Correa ($3,300), Jorge Polanco ($3,100), and Max Kepler ($3,100) form the core to work with before branching out. As always, note that the platoon lefties are always at risk of getting pulled late for a pinch-hitter.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.