Soccer

Euro 2024 France vs. Spain: Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Tuesday's Semifinal

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas
Euro 2024 France vs. Spain: Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Tuesday's Semifinal

Euro 2024 is at the business end of the tournament, and the semifinals start on Tuesday. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering Euro 2024 odds for each game.

At 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Spain (eighth in the FIFA rankings) face off with France (second) in a star-studded semifinal clash.

What should we expect from this matchup?

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 France vs. Spain: Picks, Predictions, and Odds

France vs. Spain Odds

  • France to Win: +210
  • Spain to Win: +170
  • Draw: +180
  • Over 2.5 Goal Odds: +176
  • Under 2.5 Goal Odds: -220
  • France to Advance: -102
  • Spain to Advance: -120

France vs. Spain Best Bet

Both Teams to Score (+114)

Both Spain and France should feel good about their ability to create chances in Tuesday's first semifinal.

Much has been made about France not yet scoring an open-play goal. The French have netted only three goals through five matches -- two own goals and a penalty. That's incomprehensible given the amount of attacking talent on France.

However, the expected goals (xG) data -- per FBRef's model -- paints a different picture, one that makes Didier Deschamps' side look a lot better. France has amassed at least 1.1 xG in every match this tournament, including two matches with at least 2.0 xG. In all, they've totaled an impressive 7.9 xG despite scoring only three times.

While there's some bad finishing at play for France, bad luck is also a factor as we know what kind of talent France has in attacking areas. France should eventually turn some of these chances into goals, and they've got a good shot to do that against Spain.

Spain is a possession-based team that will likely have a lot of the ball in this one. That should suit the French just fine as the pace of Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele -- assuming Dembele starts after his stellar cameo against Portugal -- can give Spain fits on the counter.

Spain's defense has allowed just two goals all tourney, but in two matches versus top-notch attacks -- Croatia and Germany -- Spain conceded exactly 2.1 xG in each game, so France should find joy on Tuesday.

As far as Spain holding up their end of things and getting a goal, Spain have been dangerous in every match. They've yet to be blanked in Euro 2024 and have created at least 1.4 xG in all five outings, including 2.0 xG versus Italy and 1.4 xG against Germany.

France's defense is really good, but Portugal accumulated 1.8 xG against the French in the quarterfinals. In short, Spain should be able to get a goal and are listed at -235 to do so.

Goals have been hard to come by when top sides have squared off this tournament, but France's potent counterattack versus Spain's possession-based style could wind up giving us a more open match -- one where both teams make the net bulge.

France vs. Spain Prediction

Opta's model gives Spain a 37.3% chance to win in regulation while projecting a France win (31.8%) and a draw (30.6%) as nearly equally likely.

MasseyRatings favors Spain a little more, handing Spain a 42% chance to win.

The Euro 2024 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have Spain as a slight +170 moneyline favorite. The +170 odds imply win odds of 37.0% -- right in line with Opta's model.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.