Euro 2024 Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Saturday 6/29/24

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere

The 2024 UEFA European Football Championship -- also known as Euro 2024 -- is here, and we're already at the Round of 16.

FanDuel Sportsbook's Euro 2024 odds offer a variety of ways to get in on the action, including betting lines for each match.

Let's take a look at the best bets for Saturday.

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 Betting Picks

Switzerland vs. Italy (12 p.m. ET)

Switzerland to Qualify for the Next Round (+124)

Italy (10th in FIFA's World Rankings) kick off the Round of 16 matches with a showdown with Switzerland (19th).

Italy advanced to the Round of 16 by finishing second in Group B, the Group of Death. The second-place finish was a fortunate result as they needed a last-minute equalizer against Croatia to avoid potential elimination. Looking at expected goals (xG), per FBRef's xG model, Italy finished with a negative xG differential (-0.9) -- losing to both Spain (2.0-0.2) and Croatia (1.0-0.9) on xG

Some of Italy's struggles thus far can be excused due to the strength of their group, but they can't be fully excused -- they were a continuation of Italy's inability over the past year to get consistent results against better opposition. In qualifying, they lost to England (5th) twice and recorded a draw and a win against Ukraine (24th). In one of their pre-Euro friendlies, they drew with Turkey (42nd).

Switzerland secured second place in Group A, going undefeated with a win over Hungry (27th) and draws against Scotland (39th) and Germany (16th). Those results fall in line their form over the past year, which includes just one loss (vs. Romania) from 14 matches.

This clash projects as a low-scoring contest. Italy recorded the sixth-fewest xG/90 (0.86) in the group stage. They allowed 1.15 xG/90, but most of that came against Spain, arguably the best attacking team in the tournament thus far. Switzerland generated 2.3 xG against Hungry but were held in check by both Scotland (1.1 xG) and Germany (0.6 xG).

Opta's model has Italy (57%) favored over Switzerland (43%) to advance to the quarterfinals. Compared to that model, the Euro 2024 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are overvaluing Italy (-152, 60.3% implied odds to advance) more than Switzerland (+124, 44.6%).

In what is expected to be a close contest, I like siding with Switzerland at +124 odds to advance -- in any manner, including extra time and penalties -- against an Italy side that has underwhelmed so far in Germany.

Germany vs. Denmark (3 p.m. ET)

Germany -1.5 Goals (+190)

Germany are significant favorites to advance (-385) and decent favorites to win in regulation (-170), according to the Euro 2024 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The hosts won Group A with victories over Scotland and Hungry (27th) and a draw against Switzerland. On xG, they won all three matches, with their clash against Hungry the closest fixture -- 1.4-1.2 xG.

Denmark finished second in Group C, going undefeated with three draws and totaling two goals for and two goals against. On xG, they were slightly unlucky to draw with Slovenia (1.7-1.1 xG), but their results against both England (0.8-0.9 xG) and Serbia (0.7-0.3 xG) were fair outcomes.

On the surface, Denmarks' draw against England appears to be a solid result, but the Three Lions struggled in the group stages, generating just 0.73 xG/90 -- third-worst among all teams. Denmark rank third in xG/90 allowed (0.74), but all three of their opponents rank inside the bottom-seven in xG/90. The defensive records of the teams in Group C have been propped up by the offensive struggles of all four teams.

Germany rank sixth in xG/90 (1.67) and will be -- by far -- the biggest test Denmark's defense has faced. The hosts will also likely force Denmark into an unfamiliar position -- one where they don't have the majority of possession. Denmark has had the majority of possession in all three of their Euro 2024 matches and all 10 of their matches in qualifying. They rank fifth in average possession at Euro 2024 (57.0%) and ranked third in possession rate during qualifying (69.1%).

Germany leads all teams in possession at Euro 2024 (68.7%), and they make the most of it, also leading in progressive passes (193). They are tied for first in short pass attempts and rank second in medium pass attempts -- ranking first in completion percentage for both buckets.

I like backing Toni Kroos and Germany to win by at least two goals in this one at +190.

Prop Bets

Granit Xhaka to Have 1 or More Shots on Target (+240): Goals may be difficult to come by against Italy, but I like backing Xhaka to record a shot on target. He has done so in each of his three Euro 2024 fixtures so far, operating at the heart of Switzerland's midfield. In 44 club matches for Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga and Europa League combined, Xhaka recorded 58 shots. He recorded a shot on target in 7 of 13 (53.8%) matches across qualifying and the group stage -- a much higher rate than his +240 odds imply (29.4%).

Jamal Musiala to Score or Assist (+140): Musiala has been in excellent form at Euro 2024, totaling two goals, five shots, and three shots on target despite not playing more than 76 minutes in any of Germany's three fixtures. Against Switzerland, he failed to score, but he created four chances. He leads Germany in progressive carries (19) and should be heavily involved on Saturday in a match where Germany is a sizable favorite.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.