Euro 2024 Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Friday's Quarterfinals (7/5/24)

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas
Euro 2024 Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Friday's Quarterfinals (7/5/24)

We are at the business end of the 2024 Euros, and the quarterfinals start Friday.

FanDuel Sportsbook's Euro 2024 odds offer a variety of ways to get in on the action, including betting lines for each match.

Let's take a look at the best bets for Friday.

All Euro 2024 odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Euro 2024 Betting Picks

Germany vs. Spain (12 p.m. ET)

Over 2.5 Goals (+102)

Friday has a chance to be the best day of the tournament, and it starts with a dream quarterfinal matchup between Spain and Germany -- the two most impressive teams thus far in Euro 2024.

Spain have won all four of their matches in the tournament, scoring nine goals and giving up one. Germany have won three of four -- drawing the other -- and have totaled 10 goals while conceding only twice (one of which was an own goal). So, together, these two have scored 19 goals and allowed 3.

We've got elite attacks and top-shelf defenses. I'm siding with the attacks to win out on Friday.

There's a chance these defenses aren't as lights out as what the results say they are.

While Spain's defense has conceded just once, they have likely benefitted from facing meh attacks. In Spain's one game against a good attacking side, they permitted 2.1 xG to Croatia.

Germany's defense has kept two clean sheets -- versus Hungary in group play and against Denmark in the Round of 16 -- but they were lucky do to so each time, allowing exactly 1.2 xG in both games.

Spain's attack should create chances regardless of who they're facing. They have put out their first-choice starting 11 in three matches this tourney. In those matches, they've amassed 2.0, 2.0 and 3.3 expected goals (xG), per FBRef's xG model.

It's a similar story for Germany's attack as they've mustered at least 1.4 xG in each match, including 2.6 last time out against a solid Denmark team.

All in all, these attacks could be a bit better than the defenses, and I am backing there to be goals in this titanic matchup.

France vs. Portugal (3 p.m. ET)

Portugal Moneyline (+240)

Betting on a team that couldn't score on Slovenia across 120 minutes in the Round of 16 to turn around and beat France? I'm down.

There are reasons to believe that this Portugal squad can topple the mighty French.

Through the lens of xG, Portugal have been great in this tourney. They've played their best 11 three times, and in those matches, the aggregate xG tally is 5.8-1.7. They created at least 1.9 xG in all three matches and surrendered no more than 0.7 xG in any of the outings. While Portugal lost 2-0 to Georgia in the final round of group matches, the Portuguese played nearly an entire starting lineup of backups in that game and had very little motivation to get a result (compared to Georgia needing a win to advance).

France's xG data also looks great. Through four matches, the French have put up 6.8 xG and permitted 2.6 xG. They have the ability to be special defensively and just held a talented Belgium attack to 0.2 xG.

But from that 6.8 xG, France have generated just three goals -- none of which have come from open play (two own goals and a penalty). There's some bad luck involved, for sure, but a match against Portugal's superb defense, one that is allowing an average of 0.6 xG per match (if you remove the Georgia game), isn't a spot where we should expect France's attack to get right.

Both of these sides possess world-class individual talent, players who can create a goal out of nothing. Despite that, this is expected to be a tight, low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals listed at -184 odds.

On paper and by xG, these two teams rate out pretty similarly, so Portugal's +240 moneyline may be underrating them a bit. MasseyRatings actually has Portugal as a slight favorite, projecting them to win 36% of the time, compared to 34% win odds for France.

Prop Bets

Cristiano Ronaldo to Score or Assist (+170): Ronaldo is having a tourney to forget as he's yet to score despite really, reallllllly trying to get on the scoresheet -- taking 19 shots through four games, 8 of which have been on target. He's accumulated a whopping 2.7 xG.

CR7, one of the greatest goal-scorers to ever play the game, has got to break through at some point, right?

While France's defense is stout, Ronaldo's shot volume is what draws me in, and we know he'll take free kicks and penalties. Plus, in this market, an assist works, too, so he doesn't even need to make the net bulge for this bet to hit (his anytime goal odds are +220). I'm backing Portugal to win, and I like Ronaldo's chances to get a goal or assist.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.