Soccer

EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 27: Newcastle Look to Bounce Back

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 27: Newcastle Look to Bounce Back

We're coming down to the point of the season where every game matters, and it's really exciting to follow the races up and down the table.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 27

Brighton at Fulham (10 AM ET Saturday)

Brighton Moneyline (+160)

Two teams that are firmly in the mid table of the Premier League meet in London.

Fulham are coming off an impressive win over Manchester United away from home. This was just their second away win of the season and first since all the way back on the opening day of the season.

They won't have to worry about their away form this week, playing at home. While they have been better at home, they still haven't been super impressive. They have still lost 5 of their 13 home matches, including losses to Burnley and Brentford.

Brighton are perhaps not as good as once believed early in the season, but they are still having a respectable season. They are seventh in the table currently and have the sixth-best expected goal (xG) differential in the Premier League, according to FBRef.com. Meanwhile, Fulham are the fourth-worst team by xG differential.

Fulham will be without Joao Palhinha due to suspension. He's a key player in their midfield, who WhoScored.com gives the highest rating on the squad this season.

I like the price of +160 with the better team in Brighton, even if they have struggled on the road of late.

Wolves at Newcastle (10 AM ET Saturday)

Newcastle Moneyline (-115)

After a disastrous performance against Arsenal last week, Newcastle look to bounce back at home against Wolves.

There is a big difference between Newcastle's home form and their away form. They've won just three games away from St. James' Park in the league this season. They also have the fifth-worst xG differential in away matches this season, despite an 8-0 win at Sheffield United early in the season.

At home, it's a different story. Newcastle are the fifth-best xG differential team when playing at home and the sixth-best by points per match.

They'll face a Wolves' side that has played well of late. They've won four of their last five matches in all competitions.

They face a potential problem however, as Matheus Cunha is out until late March. Then during their midweek FA Cup game, Hwang Hee-chan suffered a hamstring injury that will likely keep him out of this game as well. These two have scored 19 of Wolves' 40 league goals, so they are huge losses in attack.

Newcastle are overall a better team in xG differential, and these injuries for Wolves will likely be too much for them to overcome away from home.

Player Props

Luis Diaz to Score (+180): Liverpool have a lot of injuries to their forward group. With Mohamed Salah, Darwin Nunez and Diogo Jota all missing, the goals need to come from somewhere.

Enter Luis Diaz, who is the leading goal scorer on the team after these three. He's really turned on the goal scoring of late, finding the net in three of his last five league matches.

In this matchup against Nottingham Forest, he'll face the team that has conceded the fifth-most goals in the league. Getting +180 is a great price on Diaz, who also could take a penalty if Liverpool are awarded one.

Cole Palmer to Score or Assist (+105): A lot of Chelsea's signings over the last two years have not worked out. One that definitely has worked out is Cole Palmer.

The young Englishman joined from Manchester City this summer and has been hugely productive. He has 10 goals and 6 assists in 21 league appearances.

Chelsea will face a Brentford side that is a mess defensively. They conceded 12 goals in five league matches in February.

Palmer is Chelsea's penalty taker, and they should have a good chance to score goals from open play as well. You can back him just to score at +190, but if you want to play it safer, you still get odds on him to contribute to any goal at +105.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.