Duke vs Florida State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for ACC Tournament

The No. 8 seed Florida State Seminoles (18-14, 10-8 ACC) will square off in the ACC tournament against the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (29-2, 17-1 ACC) on Thursday at Spectrum Center, starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Duke vs. Florida State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 12, 2026
• Game time: 7 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN
• Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
• Arena: Spectrum Center

Duke vs. Florida State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Duke win (88%)

Take a look at the betting trends and insights below before making a wager on Thursday's Duke-Florida State spread (Duke -16.5) or over/under (149.5 points).

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Duke vs. Florida State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Duke is 17-14-0 ATS this season.
• Florida State has won 19 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 13 times.
• Duke covers the spread when it is a 16.5-point favorite or more 42.9% of the time. That's less often than Florida State covers as an underdog of 16.5 or more (100%).
• The Blue Devils have done a better job covering the spread when playing on the road (8-3-0) than they have in home games (6-9-0).
• The Seminoles' winning percentage against the spread at home is .588 (10-7-0). Away, it is .727 (8-3-0).
• Against the spread, in conference action, Duke is 10-8-0 this season.
• Florida State's ACC record against the spread is 13-6-0.

Duke vs. Florida State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Duke has won in 22, or 91.7%, of the 24 contests it has been named as the moneyline favorite in this year.
• The Blue Devils have yet to lose in six games when named as moneyline favorite of -3030 or better.
• Florida State has won four of the 15 games it was the underdog on the moneyline this season (26.7%).
• The Seminoles have yet to play a game with moneyline odds of +1200 or longer.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Duke has a 96.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Duke vs. Florida State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Duke outscores opponents by 20.4 points per game (scoring 82.9 per game to rank 40th in college basketball while giving up 62.5 per contest to rank second in college basketball) and has a +634 scoring differential overall.
• Cameron Boozer's 22.7 points per game lead Duke and are seventh in the nation.
• Florida State has a +81 scoring differential, topping opponents by 2.5 points per game. It is putting up 80.4 points per game, 79th in college basketball, and is giving up 77.9 per outing to rank 293rd in college basketball.
• Robert McCray is 215th in college basketball with a team-leading 16.1 points per game.
• The Blue Devils rank ninth in the country at 37.2 rebounds per game. That's 10.6 more than the 26.6 their opponents average.
• Boozer is 14th in college basketball action with 10.2 rebounds per game to lead the Blue Devils.
• The Seminoles pull down 32.4 rebounds per game (149th in college basketball) while conceding 34.6 per contest to opponents. They are outrebounded by 2.2 boards per game.
• Lajae Jones leads the team with 5.8 rebounds per game (326th in college basketball).
• Duke ranks 12th in college basketball with 109 points scored per 100 possessions, and second in college basketball defensively with 82.1 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• The Seminoles rank 168th in college basketball averaging 98.2 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are 174th, allowing 95.1 points per 100 possessions.

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