College Football Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Monday 1/1/24

With daily fantasy football being so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.

FanDuel now offers college football daily fantasy contests in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which includes tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.

Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so figuring out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.

How should we approach this week's main slate?

Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category. All college football odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football DFS Picks

The Slate

An increasing number of bowl opt-outs have made postseason college football DFS a bit of a crapshoot, but at the very least, Monday's main slate has four teams playing for the ultimate prize. That -- and other circumstances -- actually makes this slate a pretty fun one.

Of course, it only helps the best overall environment is a CFP semifinal. The Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies are projected for a 62.5-point total, and Texas is a 4.5-point favorite. I'm not sure how you could expect anything but a shootout between two of the nation's top offenses all season.

The other New Year's Six game of the day provides more fantasy upside. The 66.5-point total between the Liberty Flames and Oregon Ducks is actually the highest of Monday's five games, but the 16.5-point spread as Liberty sees a gigantic step up in competition is very appropriate.

We've also got the Iowa Hawkeyes on the slate, and there ability to squash all sorts of fantasy goodness will be put to the test with Josh Heupel's up-tempo Tennessee Volunteers on the other side. The total (35.5) is still fairly underwhelming there.

Quarterbacks

Top Plays

• Bo Nix ($12,500)
  • As a surprise to some, Nix will play in the Fiesta Bowl despite likely going somewhere in the first three rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft after a sensational season featuring 46 total touchdowns and a 90.9 QBR (second in FBS). Throw Liberty's passing YPA allowed (6.8; 34th in FBS) out against inferior competition; Nix and the Ducks should be able to name their score if playing this one with maximum effort.
• Michael Penix Jr. ($10,000)
  • Texas has been an outlier rush defense (2.9 YPA allowed) all season, and they just bottled Ollie Gordon II, so I'm guessing the Huskies will have to move the ball through their Heisman finalist QB on Monday. Facing Oregon's 15th-ranked pass D (in terms of YPA) twice, Penix Jr. averaged 310.5 yards and 2.5 passing scores per game. I think he's up to the task.
• Tanner Mordecai ($8,300)
  • Though the Wisconsin Badgers always prefer to win with defense and the run game, their top-two running backs are out of this game, so the sixth-year senior at QB might be asked to do a bit more than usual. Facing LSU's 101st-ranked pass D (8.0 YPA allowed), don't discount his ability to perform in a projected negative script.

Others to Consider

• Kaidon Salter ($11,200)
  • As a 16.5-point underdog, Liberty is expected to trail, so Salter's day should be busy. His efficiency (10.3 YPA) likely takes a huge dip with a step up in competition, but the dual threat rushed for 1,046 yards and 12 touchdowns this year. He might be forced to improvise on the ground for the Flames to move the ball, so his salary is still palatable despite the concerns.
• J.J. McCarthy ($7,600)
  • An entrenched starter with maximum motivation, McCarthy turned in 343 passing yards, 52 rushing yards, and 3 total touchdowns in last year's CFP loss. He's not usually needed due to the Michigan Wolverines' level of competition, but Alabama's pass-funnel defense could produce a heavy workload for a signal-caller that can move.

Running Backs

Top Plays

• Bucky Irving ($10,500)
  • Like Nix, Irving's presence in this game as a projected NFL back is a positive surprise. Of all the Ducks, his floor feels safest when he'll likely excel in a positive script. Irving's role improved dramatically throughout the year, posting a 51.1% rush share and 12.6% target share in their last five games -- with just three total touchdowns. He's due for regression on that front.
• Dillon Johnson ($8,000)
  • Texas' rush D is stellar, but FanDuel's salary-makers solved the issue with this reduced mark on UDub's every-down tailback. Johnson has a slate-best 72.4% rush share for the Huskies in his last five games with an elite goal-line role, totaling 14 rushing scores on the year.
• CJ Baxter ($7,700)
  • The Huskies allow 4.3 rushing YPA (80th in FBS), and that's been the book on them all year. The problem is that Texas' backfield has been a mess in recent blowouts after losing Jonathan Brooks for the year. In their last competitive game against the Iowa State Cyclones, Baxter handled 20 of 27 RB carries. With a month off to heal his shoulder issue, I expect he leads the way more notably with a title on the line.

Others to Consider

• Blake Corum ($9,000)
  • I'd peg Corum right with any of the other three. Alabama's rush D (3.7 YPA allowed) is strong again, but Michigan will likely ride their lead back as much as possible. At a five-digit salary, his yardage upside might have been an issue, but he's scored multiple touchdowns in five straight as option A, B, and C inside the five-yard line. That's really great for $9,000.
• Logan Diggs ($7,300)
  • Jayden Daniels is off to the NFL, which could dramatically change the way the LSU Tigers play on offense. Diggs was slowed by an upper-body injury late in the year, but he topped 18 carries in three of his last six games. I wouldn't be surprised by a tremendous role as a 9.5-point favorite over Sconny.

Wide Receivers

Top Plays

• Rome Odunze ($9,800)
  • Washington's wideout corps was previously a three-headed monster, but even with Jalen McMillan ($8,000) and Ja'Lynn Polk ($7,800) both back in the fold to snatch touchdowns, Odunze is Penix's guy above all. He sported a 30.8% target share in the Huskies' last five contests.
• Xavier Worthy ($7,600)
  • Worthy is no given to play after turning his ankle in the Big 12 title game, but he has returned to practice and seems trending in the right direction. If so, this salary is ludicrous in the best environment on the slate. Even leaving the last game early, he's had a 30.9% target share in the past five games.
• CJ Daniels ($7,500)
  • We'll need someone to target if Liberty keeps this close, and Daniels can likely be that guy. Liberty's rush-heavy approach against weak opponents could go out the window in an early deficit, and if the Flames are throwing, Daniels' 29.0% target share for the entire year is second-best on the slate. He's oddly salaried when projected to be trailing.

Others to Consider

• Malik Nabers ($10,800)
  • Nabers is a shocker to even be suiting up for this one, but we also have to temper expectations a little without Jayden Daniels throwing the pill. His 36.2% target share likely holds, but the efficiency on those targets from Garrett Nussmeier ($9,000) against the 10th-ranked pass D in FBS (6.2 YPA allowed) could be poor.
• Tez Johnson ($9,400)
  • With Troy Franklin headed to the NFL, one would assume Johnson sees a boatload of Nix's targets. He had a 20.8% target share behind Franklin this season, but only Bucky Irving had a target share north of 11.0% otherwise. He's a fine play that might be better fit for lineups expecting Liberty to compete with the Ducks.
• Squirrel White ($6,400)
  • Though not near the caliber of Daniels, Joe Milton III has also declared for the draft. Milton's 69.6 QBR is a bit more replaceable, though. Nico Iamaleava ($7,000) actually has a better rating (73.2) in limited action, so I'm optimistic for the passing game. With that the case, White's 24.5% target share was easily best on the Vols, and this tiny salary eases concerns about the scoring environment.
• Isaiah Bond ($5,900)
  • Even against Michigan's elite defense, Bond's salary feels like a typo. He hauled in 27.8% of Bama's targets in the last five games and topped 75 yards receiving in the Iron Bowl and SEC Championship game. He's the one skill player on Alabama I have any faith in whatsoever to run back lineups with McCarthy or Corum.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.