College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 9/9/23

With daily fantasy football being so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.

FanDuel now offers college football daily fantasy contests now in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which can include tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.

Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so finding out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.

Week 2 features more competitive matchups and some conference games to begin the real college football season. Thankfully, there are no low-level squads on the slate this week, but we still do have some lopsided spreads between Power 5 and non-Power 5 schools. Plus, we've got real market share data!

Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category.

The Slate

As we learned last week, implied totals aren't everything, but we've got a few games that appear to be set up for fantasy football fireworks on Saturday.

I'd peg the Mississippi Rebels and Tulane Green Wave as the starting point with a 68.5-point total. Tulane's up-tempo offense and star quarterback will face off with Ole Miss' insane, NFL-caliber group of skill position players.

Next, the Oregon Ducks are traveling to Lubbock to battle the Texas Tech Red Raiders with a 68.5-point total and a curiously short 6.5-point spread. Those two teams aren't strangers to scoring.

The SMU Mustangs and Oklahoma Sooners have the total, but an 18.5-point spread is far from ideal. We saw OU players pop off in a blowout last week, though.

Surprisingly, the Wisconsin Badgers and Washington State Cougars have a 58.5-point total for two squads historically led by defense. Less surprisingly, the North Carolina Tar Heels will host Appalachian State Mountaineers with a total encroaching 60.

Of course, the marquee game of the slate features the Texas Longhorns traveling to meet the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. Those two CFP contenders are expected to produce around 60 total points, too.

Quarterbacks

Key Takeaways

• You can't scratch off do-it-all stud Bo Nix ($12,400) in an environment as good as the projected shootout in Lubbock, but with a lofty salary, there's definite blowout potential. Texas Tech needed overtime to escape the Wyoming Cowboys last week, and if Nix isn't on the gas all game, others will be better.
  • Dillon Gabriel ($11,600) and Drake Maye ($11,200) are even more tangible examples of this as matching 18.5-point favorites.
• On the road facing the Boise State Broncos, John Rhys Plumlee ($11,000) has a strong case as the top QB on the slate. Plumlee's rush-centric approach (92 rushing yards last week) will travel, and Michael Penix Jr. just lit up this passing defense for 450 yards and 5 scores.
• Part of the appeal of Ole Miss-Tulane is the quarterback situation. Both Jaxson Dart ($10,400) and Michael Pratt ($10,000) are top-three quarterbacks on the slate in YPA, and they're mobile with rushing upside. Pratt even did his damage against a stout South Alabama Jaguars defense.
• Last week, Shedeur Sanders ($9,700) lit up the TCU Horned Frogs, but the new-look Nebraska Cornhuskers are a pretty ambiguous matchup after not facing much of a passing threat last week. You'd probably lean under a school-record 510 passing yards, but he's still appealing just to access a CU offense with muddy market shares.
  • On the other side, Jeff Sims ($8,000) ran for 117 yards last week and will face a Buffaloes D that was gashed on the ground by TCU.
• The best "value" quarterback might be Cam Ward ($9,000), who posted 279 passing yards and 53 rushing yards last week. Wisconsin's defense-oriented philosophy has never been easy to target, but Wazzu has a 26.0-point implied total.
  • In this same realm, former Florida signal-caller Emory Jones ($7,900) has a low salary for the Cincinnati Bearcats, and he showed off a bit of rushing upside (26 yards and 2 touchdowns) in last week's blowout of Eastern Kentucky.

Running Backs

Key Takeaways

• Both top running backs, Quinshon Judkins ($10,500) and Braelon Allen ($10,000), are well worth their salary this weekend in projected shootouts.
  • Judkins handled nearly every snap with the first team against Mercer and was one of college football's best runners (8.8 YPC) in 2022.
  • Allen added 7 targets (23.3% share) to 17 carries in last week's 38-17 win over the Buffalo Bulls. Chez Mellusi ($9,200) won't get as much burn in a tight game.
• Other than those two, this is a better place to save salary.
  • The North Carolina State Wolfpack were 15th in YPC allowed to opponents last season, and Audric Estime ($9,000) has still had a rotation to earn just a 45.9% rush share so far.
  • Dylan Edwards ($8,800) was extremely reliant on the big play last week while earning just six carries and five targets in a tight game with TCU. In fact, Sy'veon Wilkerson ($6,200) got 44.8% of CU's carries to lead the team.
• Small-school workhorse running backs are numerous on this slate to accomplish that.
  • Devin Mockabee ($7,600) got 59.3% of the the Purdue Boilermakers' carries last week and added three targets. The surprise shootout against the Fresno State Bulldogs helps us project his true workload moving forward.
  • If the Red Raiders keep things tight, Tahj Brooks ($7,400) might be the safest way to access their side. He'll get most of the goal line work and saw 14 total opportunities against Wyoming.
  • Nate Noel ($7,100) could be loaded with touches to keep Drake Maye on the sideline if App State can. Noel got 24 carries (63.2% of the Mountaineers' total work) a week ago
  • The Iowa Hawkeyes appear to be having Caleb Johnson ($6,900) shoulder the load. He got 19 carries last week to lead the team. He's the only viable play in an otherwise horrible game environment.
  • Bhayshul Tuten ($6,600) also got 22 total opportunities last week for the Virginia Tech Hokies.

Wide Receivers

Key Takeaways

• It sounds like Zakhari Franklin ($8,000) still isn't super close for the Rebels, which could continue to lift Tre Harris ($9,700) into a do-it-all role for Ole Miss's passing game. Harris turned nine targets into four touchdowns in last week's blowout, so he's a favorite of Dart's in scoring range.
  • Evan Stewart ($9,400) also accounted for 41.5% of the Texas A&M Aggies' passing yardage, so by default, I'm leaving out the iffy market shares of Oregon's duo this week to target these two at the top.
• The only receiver with a higher share of his team's total passing yardage (min. five targets) was Deion Burks ($8,500) of Purdue. The speedster connected on a couple of long bombs and had an excellent 34.6% target share overall.
• The Buffs should be popular off of last week's upset, but there's really a volatile situation at receiver for them at DFS. Travis Hunter ($8,200) led the way with 14 targets, Jimmy Horn Jr. ($8,800) saw 13, and expected top option Xavier Weaver ($7,400) got just 7. If they're not posting 45 points, it's going to be tough for all of them to continue to eat.
• CU is even less desirable when the mid-range at wideout is loaded with unquestioned top options.
  • Though Wazzu's target shares have been a mess for a half decade, Lincoln Victor ($8,600) appears to have seperated this season with a 27.7% target share in Week 1. That was 13 overall looks.
  • Kobe Paysour ($8,300) earned 30.0% of Drake Maye's targets as UNC continues to struggle with injuries and ineligible players at the position.
  • The talented Jerand Bradley ($8,100) emerged in overtime with 31.8% of Texas Tech's overall looks. With Myles Price ($7,300) at just 18.2%, there's enough of a chasm to expect that to hold.
  • In a more competitive game, expect Jermaine Burton ($7,900) of Alabama to also see more than three total targets.
  • On the other side, it's crazy that future first-rounder Xavier Worthy ($7,400) commands such a low salary when Texas is expected to score. Worthy had a 28.6% target share in their opening game.
• Punt-level value exists here, too.
  • Eric McAlister ($6,900) saw 15 targets in a competitive-but-not-that-close game last week, so he could be the Broncos' top guy entering this clash with the Central Florida Knights.
  • Only time will tell if Jaquaize Pettaway ($6,300) can hold onto a 30.0% target share in a competitive game for the Sooners, but as an 18.5-point favorite, he'll likely have a similar role throughout Week 2 against SMU.
  • Finally, the slate's target share leader (35.3%) is Jaylin Noel ($5,700). He's likely the Iowa State Cyclones' leading wideout all year, and they might trail more moving forward to increase the volume from just six total targets.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.