College Football Betting Picks for Thursday 8/31/23

With a spectacular college football Week 0 officially in the rear view mirror, we can turn our sights toward CFB Week 1.

Broken up over several nights of action, Week 1 will commence with a strong slate of games on Thursday, August 31. Of that batch, there is only one AP Top-25 team in action: the No. 14 Utah Utes hosting the Florida Gators in an opening-week rematch.

Still, we don't need a Top-25 ranking to sniff out weekly lucrative markets.

In other noteworthy meetings this Thursday, the North Carolina State Wolfpack will visit the Connecticut Huskies -- that one should be a dogfight (mostly on mascot puns rather than relative competition). Also, the Minnesota Golden Gophers hosting the Nebraska Cornhuskers should make for a fun weeknight matchup.

With Thursday's contests just around the corner, let's dive into the early slate of college football's Week 1, including the best wager in each game.

Keep in mind -- with the games looming so closely on the calendar, all odds and spreads are subject to incremental movement.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Week 1 Betting Guide (Thursday)

Kent State Golden Flashes at UCF Knights

• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1
• Spread: UCF -36.5
• Moneyline: N/A
• Total: 55.5 (-105/-115)

The Central Florida Knights are ready to prove they belong in Power 5 football. 2023 will be UCF's first season competing as a Big 12 member institution, so you can imagine they will look to make a definitive statement against the Kent State Golden Flashes.

The Knights will serve as hosts this Thursday, inviting Kent State down to Orlando. The Golden Flashes will need to keep their minds off Walt Disney World while in town as UCF commences 2023 ranked 35th in ESPN's College Football Power Index. For the Flashes, they will be in their first season under head coach Kenni Burns.

Behind 32.9 points per game last season, Central Florida produced a 9-5 campaign. This year, the Knights' strong suit will again be on offense. With John Rhys Plumlee returning as starting signal-caller for UCF, he will look to build off his previous QBR of 74.5, which was 22nd-best in the country a year ago.

Kent State football -- which is mostly known for being the alma mater of three-time Super Bowl champion Julian Edelman -- has been in a rut for majority of the past nine years. In that span, the Golden Flashes have lost at six least games in every season (with exception to the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. From 2014 through 2018, Kent State never showed less than nine losses.

Best Bet: Over 55.5 (-105)

I am confident that the Knights will trounce Kent State, but I am a little deterred by such a massive spread; transparently, 36.5 points is almost large enough to be a runway for a commercial airliner. With that, I prefer a play on the combined total in this contest.

In an effort to avoid a wonky backdoor cover ATS, I like the two sides here to collaborate for more than 55.5 points. We have seen this total climb as high as 57.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook in recent weeks, but the number is obviously more advantageous for over supporters right now. In 2022, UCF produced 32.9 points per game (PPG) while KSU added 28.4 PPG of their own.

Using the law of averages, we can expect a game with just over 60 total points. Naturally, my assuredness on this play is aided by the game projections at numberFire. They show an estimated final score of 46.51-21.82, which would provide a comfortable win for over bettors.

NC State Wolfpack at UConn Huskies

• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBSSN
• Spread: NCST -14.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: NCST -690/CONN +480
• Total: 46.5

A rematch from Week 4 of last season, the Wolfpack and Huskies will get together to see who can gnaw the most meat off the bone. This time around, UConn will host, unlike in 2022 when the Huskies traveled down to Raleigh only to get mauled by a score of 41-10.

Undeniably, head coach Jim Mora has made productive strides since taking over Connecticut's football program. Not too long ago, the Huskies were regularly the worst team in FBS. Last year, they won six games for the first time since 2015. Still, I am not sure they are quite ready to compete with North Carolina State -- a team that was ranked as high as No. 10 on the AP poll in 2022.

The Wolfpack enter 2023 at 40th in ESPN's CFPI. For comparison, UConn falls near the bottom (117th) on the same index. It is noteworthy that NC State will be going forward without last year's starting quarterback (Devin Leary is now competing for the Kentucky Wildcats), but they feel good about Brennan Armstrong in Raleigh. Armstrong is a transfer from Virginia that has previously thrown 58 total touchdowns at the FBS level in 2021.

Still, the Wolfpack are a program that is currently anchored on defense. According to ESPN's 2023 SP+ Preseason Rankings, NC State showcases the 20th-best defensive unit in the country. In 2022, they surrendered just 19.2 points per game; only 11 schools had a better clip in that category last season. They will be particularly strong in the secondary behind returning defensive backs Shyheim Battle, Devan Boykin and Jakeen Harris.

Best Bet: NC State -14.5 (-115)

Similarly to last year's head-to-head meeting, I don't think UConn will be able to orchestrate consistent scoring drives against NC State. In 2022, the Wolfpack held the Huskies to under 40 total passing yards. UConn will see if their output changes under new quarterback Ta'Quan Roberson. Transferring over from the Penn State Nittany Lions, Roberson seeks improvement for Connecticut above all else, but he faces a buzzsaw NC State defense in the opener.

In 2022, NC State did well to jump out to a 31-0 lead against the Huskies. I like them to cover more than two touchdowns (14.5) for the second consecutive season versus UConn. numberFire's game projections are right in line with this, estimating a Wolfpack victory this Thursday night by an implied score of 31.39-16.00.

Florida Gators at No. 14 Utah Utes

• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Spread: UTAH -6.5
• Moneyline: FLA +210/UTAH -260
• Total: 44.5 (-115/-105)

In what will most likely be the best college football action of the day (and possibly the entire week), No. 14 Utah will attempt to avenge last season's Week 1 loss in Gainesville. On that night, the two schools battled it out over four quarters before an electric finish. Florida would eventually produce a red zone interception with less than 20 seconds to play, ultimately sealing a 29-26 victory for the Gators.

Naturally, UF will be without their best player from that game a year ago; last season's quarterback, Anthony Richardson, was notably selected fourth overall in the NFL Draft. That brings in Graham Mertz -- formerly of the Wisconsin Badgers -- to start at signal-caller for the Gators in 2023.

The No. 14 Utes enter the upcoming year as one of the most talented sides in the Pac-12. Before leaving the conference in 2024, Utah has a chance to go out with three consecutive conference titles on the gridiron. In the aforementioned ESPN SP+ Rankings, Utah is the 14th-best team in the country. For comparison, the Gators come in at 23rd overall.

Utah may have lost tight end Dalton Kincaid to the NFL since last time around, but they still have a talented core on offense. There are dynamic receivers in Devaughn Vele and Mycah Pittman (younger brother of Michael Pittman Jr.), but the best news for the Utes surrounds quarterback Cam Rising. He is slated as the starter for Thursday night despite suffering a torn ACL against the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Rose Bowl last season.

Best Bet: Utah -6.5 (-110)

I don't mind laying six points and a hook with Utah this week. Considering the game is in Salt Lake City, the Utes' high-powered offense might be too much to handle for Florida's defense -- a unit that enters 2023 ranked 41st in the nation in SP+. Additionally, Utah has complied a 14-1 home record over the past three seasons.

A year ago, the Utes very nearly emerged victorious against the Gators at "The Swamp." If not for a game-clinching interception from Rising in the end zone (on second down with time to play), Utah possibly could have went on to qualify for the 2022-23 College Football Playoff. I guess we'll never know, but I still like Rising and the Utes to avenge the loss on Thursday by a touchdown or more.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers

• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Spread: MINN -7 (-114)
• Moneyline: NEB +235/MINN -295
• Total: 42.5 (-115/-105)

As our first Big Ten football clash of the season, we will see two college football greats of yesteryear: Nebraska and Minnesota.

As conference foes, these two sides most recently met last November when the Gophers outlasted the Huskers in Lincoln. Considering Memorial Stadium is the third-most populous city in the state of Nebraska on game days, that is never a small feat. All respect to "The Sea of Red."

Two major differences for the upcoming 2023 meeting: Minnesota is hosting this game, and Nebraska has since hired Matt Rhule -- formerly of the Carolina Panthers -- as head coach. Of course, Rhule's track record in college football is much more impressive than his brief NFL resume, earning bowl bids at both Baylor and Temple in the 2010s.

I believe Rhule will be able to improve on Nebraska's 4-8 record a season ago, but I am not exactly sure what we will see from the Huskers right out of the gate. If this contest were played in Lincoln, I'd be much more willing to ride with underdog Nebraska.

Best Bet: Minnesota -7 (-114)

Head coach P.J. Fleck has made impressive strides for Golden Gopher football, and that should not be ignored. In six seasons with Fleck at the helm, Minnesota has won at least nine games in a season three separate times, and they played only seven total games in 2020 due to COVID.

In the past three head-to-head matchups, Minnesota has defeated Nebraska by exactly seven points each time. With 2023's meeting coming in the Twin Cities, I think the Gophers can win by at least two scores.

Right now, numberFire seems to support Minnesota laying seven points. The model projects the Gophers to win by an implied score of 34.46-18.11.

Looking for the latest college football odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the college football betting options.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.