College Basketball Betting Picks for Thursday 11/9/23: Backing Two West Coast Favorites

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

New Mexico at No. 23 Saint Mary's

Saint Mary's -6.5 (-110)

The New Mexico Lobos travel to take on the 23rd-ranked Saint Mary's Gaels tonight. Saint Mary's is favored by 6.5 points, and the total is set at 142.5.

This will be the second straight year the Lobos play at University Credit Union Pavilion after they took home a 69-65 victory last season. Saint Mary's home court ranks a modest 249th in KenPom's home-court advantage estimates.

Both teams have one game under their belt thus far. New Mexico crushed Texas Southern 92-55, while Saint Mary's brutalized non-Division-1 Stanislaus State 107-28.

Coming into tonight, KenPom has New Mexico ranked 40th and Saint Mary's ranked 37th.

Bart Torvik, however, has much more confidence in the Gaels. Torvik's model has Saint Mary's at No. 11 and New Mexico down at No. 47.

I'm more aligned with Torvik's projections and like the Gaels to cover the 6.5 points.

Saint Mary's returns 66.3% of its minutes from a team that went 27-8 and made the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.

Among those are a trio of preseason All-WCC selections in guard Aidan Mahaney (13.9 points), forward Alex Ducas (12.5), and center Mitchell Saxen (11.6). Harvard transfer Mason Forbes scored 19 points in St. Mary's season opener, while freshman Rory Hawke and sophomores Joshua Jefferson and Harry Wessels also eclipsed double-digit points against Stanislaus State.

Ducas, in particular, poses a major problem for New Mexico. He scored 25 points on just 10 shot attempts against the Lobos last season.

The Gaels feature a balanced offense and a stifling defense -- two hallmarks of Randy Bennett's program. Last season, Saint Mary's finished 10th in KemPom's adjusted defensive efficiency and 44th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Though they played at the fifth-slowest adjusted tempo in the country, the Gaels were highly efficient on offense. They turned the ball over at just a 14.2% clip (54th) and shot 36.5% from three (60th).

Their biggest strength came via the glass last year, and I'd expect more of the same this season. They ranked seventh in total rebound rate (55.3%) and second in defensive rebound rate (78.1%).

That could spell trouble for the visiting Lobos. New Mexico ranked outside the top 100 with a 51.4% rebound rate last season, and they lost both starting big men from that squad. They replaced them with a pair of transfers -- Mustapha Amzil (9.3 points and 4.8 rebounds in 2022-23) and Nelly Junior Joseph (14.9 and 9.3) -- but the two combined for just six rebounds in the season opener.

In general, New Mexico is replacing a lot of production from last season. They return just 43.2% of last year's minutes and only two starters.

It helps that both Jamal Mashburn Jr. (19.1 points) and Jaleen House (16.9 points and 4.7 assists) are back, but the All-Mountain West guards combined to shoot just 10 of 25 against Saint Mary's last season. They'll get their buckets, but I don't expect much efficiency (or defense) from either.

There's a chance New Mexico's star duo runs hot, pushing the Lobos to a cover, but that's likely the team's only chance of keeping things close. I'm taking the Gaels to cover.

Cal St. Bakersfield at No. 21 USC

USC -23.5 (-120)

The 21st-ranked USC Trojans are sizable 23.5-point home favorites against the Cal St. Bakersfield Roadrunners tonight. The total is set at 141.5 points.

This is one of the best USC rosters LA has seen in recent memory, and I'm expecting the Trojans to blow Cal St. Bakersfield out of the building.

USC returns 55.7% of minutes from a team that won 22 games and made the NCAA Tournament. Three starters are back from last year's squad, including leading scorer Boogie Ellis (17.7 points per game), Kobe Johnson (9.2), and Joshua Morgan (2.2 blocks per game).

Getting Ellis back was huge for this squad, but it's the newcomers who give me so much confidence in USC's ability to cover tonight.

That starts with Isaiah Collier -- a freshman widely expected to go in the top five of next year's NBA draft. The five-star guard scored 18 points in his collegiate debut, dishing out six assists for good measure.

However, transfer DJ Rodman -- brother of USWNT star Trinity Rodman and son of Dennis Rodman -- may be their most important addition. The fifth-year senior averaged 9.6 points and 5.8 rebounds per game for Washington State last season.

Those five helped USC live up to their No. 15 KenPom ranking in the season opener as the Trojans defeated Kansas St. (No. 33 on KenPom), 82-69, on a neutral floor.

Cal St. Bakersfield, meanwhile, sits all the way down at No. 284 in KenPom's rankings.

The Roadrunners returned 53.9% of their minutes from last year's 11-win team. They played only one Power-5 team last season, and it did not go well -- Utah took down Cal St. Bakersfield 72-44 in the second game of the season.

Only two starters from last year return for the Roadrunners -- Kaleb Higgins (13.1 points per game) and Marvin McGhee (8.7).

Higgins' return was big for them, and he was their only offense in the season opener. Higgins netted 27 points in their one-point win against Southern Utah (KenPom's 258th-ranked team). No other Roadrunner scored more than eight points.

Outside of those two, there just isn't much experience on this Cal St. Bakersfield roster. The Roadrunners rank outside the top 275 in KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, and they shot just 29.4% from three in the opener after shooting 32.5% from deep (274th) last season.

Simply put, Cal St. Bakersfield doesn't have the shooting or personnel to keep things close tonight. I'm expecting Ellis and Collier to put on a show and send the Roadrunners packing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.