College Basketball Betting Picks for Monday 3/11/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
College Basketball Betting Picks for Monday 3/11/24

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

Towson Tigers vs. Charleston Cougars, 6 p.m. ET

Charleston -5.5 (-118)

According to FanDuel's college basketball conference tournament odds, Charleston has the shortest odds to win the Coastal Athletic Association (CAA) Tournament (+145). The Cougars are looking to move on to the championship game with a semifinal win over Towson, who are 5.5-point underdogs.

The trends point to a Charleston cover as they are on a 10-game winning streak and have covered 5 consecutive games against the spread (ATS). On the flip side, the Tigers are only 2-3 ATS over the previous five contests. Will the Cougars keep on rolling, or will Towson pull off the upset?

I'm going with the former; Charleston has several matchup advantages. Let's dig into the stats.

First, it seems unlikely that the Tigers' offense -- 217th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency -- will be able to keep up, for the Cougars boast the 50th-best adjusted offensive efficiency (86th percentile). Charleston totals 81.0 points per game (PPG), which is in the 92nd percentile, while Towson averages 67.9 PPG (bottom 14%).

The Tigers' defense has solid marks, ranking in the top 100 of several categories; this includes PPG allowed (97th percentile), opponent field goal percentage (77th percentile), and allowed field goal attempts per game (92nd percentile). However, Towson isn't elite at stopping the Cougars' greatest strength: three-point shooting.

Charleston ranks in the 98th percentile in three-point makes and attempts per contest and takes 47.2% of their field goals from three (96th percentile). The Tigers rank outside the top 140 in opponent three-point percentage, and the Cougars made 15 of 22 three-point attempts (68.2%) in the previous head-to-head meeting.

Give me Charleston to cover their sixth straight game thanks to their excellent offense and three-point shooting.

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. James Madison Dukes, 7 p.m. ET

Over 150.5 (-105)

Prior to the start of the Sun Belt Tournament, it seemed Appalachian State and James Madison were on a collision course for the championship game. But then madness struck with Arkansas State taking down App State 67-65 as four-point underdogs on Sunday.

Suddenly, the Red Wolves' dream of dancing into the NCAA Tournament is only one game away. If they win the tournament, it will be Arkansas State's second March Madness in school history and first since 1999. This scenario is certainly on the table as the Wolves are as dangerous as ever with an 8-2 record while going 9-1 ATS over the previous 10 contests.

James Madison is the clear favorite for tonight's clash with a -235 moneyline, but I'm not totally counting out Arkansas State. The Dukes are only 5-5 ATS over the last 10 games and 1-4 ATS over the last five. While I believe James Madison is headed for a Sun Belt championship, the Red Wolves could make it too close for comfort.

Despite the under going 7-2-1 over Arkansas State's last 10, I'm taking the over for the Sun Belt championship game. Both offenses love to attack the rim, ranking in the 92nd percentile in field goal share around the rim.

Neither defense does a great of job of defending the paint, as well. Arkansas State sits in the bottom 3% in two-point shots and makes allowed per game. Plus, the Red Wolves are in the bottom 8% with 42.5% of opponents' shots labeled as close twos. The Dukes are also in the bottom 30% in two-point shots allowed per contest.

Arkansas State has totaled 78.9 PPG in their last 10 games while James Madison has logged 80.8 PPG during the same span. With both teams ranking in the 85th percentile in PPG, I like the over.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs. Samford Bulldogs, 7 p.m. ET

East Tennessee State +10.5 (-115)

On the surface, East Tennessee State against Samford looks like it could not be much of a game. The Buccaneers rank 173rd in KenPom, while the Bulldogs have drawn early hype as a potential Cinderella team, sitting 80th in KenPom's ratings.

However, East Tennessee State is playing their best ball at the right time, winning five consecutive games paired with a perfect 5-0 ATS record. The Buccaneers rank in the 85th percentile of three-point shots per game, and their efficiency has taken a jump over the past three games, making 35 of 81 attempts from deep (43.2%).

Samford is in the bottom 25% in three-point attempts and makes allowed per game. Opponents also take 40.1% of their shots from beyond the arc against the Bulldogs, which ranks among the bottom 100.

On the other side of the court, Samford is dangerous from three, sitting in the 87th percentile in three-point shots and makes per game and in three-point percentage. However, East Tennessee State ranks in the 64th percentile in opponent three-point percentage, and during the five-game winning streak, opponents are converting only 26.7% of their three-point shots.

The Buccaneers could have the advantage from three tonight, leading to yet another cover.

If you’re betting on any NCAAB action before Selection Sunday on March 17th, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook’s College Basketball Boost Builder. See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.