College Basketball Betting Picks for Monday 12/11/23

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

Howard Bison at Pennsylvania Quakers

Pennsylvania -5.5 (-106)

The Pennsylvania Quakers have had their fair share of tests with non-conference games against Villanova and No. 14 Kentucky. They still have an upcoming matchup with No. 4 Houston, as well.

Thus far, the Quakers have been up and down. They pulled off some impressive wins, like the 76-72 victory over Villanova as 12-point underdogs. Yet Penn also dropped a game against Maryland-Eastern Shore (83-80) as 10.5-point favorites.

The Quakers are favored by 5.5 points on Monday against Howard. When favored, Penn is 3-3 outright. Will they cover the spread tonight?

Saturday's loss against Kentucky could have unveiled some keys for success going forward. The Quakers hung around for a while thanks to solid ball movement and high-volume three-point shooting. They had 18 assists on 26 made field goals, which is good for an assist-to-field goal ratio (assists/FGM) of 0.692. For reference, this would be the second-best mark in the nation behind Kansas' 0.730. Pennsylvania has a 0.556 assists/FGM on the season, which is still a great mark in the 79th percentile nationally.

The Bison rank outside the top 100 in major perimeter defense categories, such as opponent three-pointers made per game (113th) and opponent three-pointers attempted per game (131st). In addition, Howard has been dominated in the turnover category. They total 16.1 turnovers per game (bottom 4%), have a 0.721 assist-to-turnover ratio (bottom 9%), and give up an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.267 (bottom 20%).

Both teams are among the bottom 25% in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. Penn does a good job of limiting free throws, giving up only 14.9 attempts per game (92nd percentile). Howard relies on the free throw line with 23.8 shots per game (88th percentile). With limited free throw attempts, the Bison's offense could struggle, as they rank 157th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%).

The Quakers could dominate the turnover category while limiting Howard's free throws, making Penn a solid pick for a cover.

Mississippi Valley State Devils at No. 10 Gonzaga Bulldogs

Under 141.5 (-114)

Following an upset loss against Washington on Saturday, No. 10 Gonzaga faces the worst team in college basketball -- the Mississippi Valley State Devils. MVSU ranks dead last in KenPom's rating with a 0-9 record. The Devils also have the worst adjusted offensive efficiency and are in the bottom 2% in adjusted defensive efficiency.

This seems like the perfect "get right" game for Gonzaga. The spread is at a whopping 40.5 points. Believe it or not, the spread seems warranted with MVSU holding an average score margin of -33.3 (last in the nation). The Devils have been at least 20-point underdogs in four of the last five games; they went 1-3 against the spread (ATS) during that span.

However, MVSU is 2-0 ATS when they are an underdog by at least 40 points. Plus, the Bulldogs are 1-1 ATS when favored by 28 or more points. This spread could be a close call. Instead, I'm rolling with the under.

The Devils' offense has simply been putrid, ranking last with 49.7 PPG and a 38.7 eFG%. When MVSU has played Power Six squads, the under is 3-1. The Devils attempt only 12.1 three-points per game (fewest), suggesting they look to attack the paint. Gonzaga ranks in the 89th percentile of opponent two-point percentage.

The Bulldogs could light up the scoreboard with KenPom's 17th-best adjusted offensive efficiency, but this game could still be poised for the under due to MVSU's scoring struggles.

Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.