College Basketball Betting Picks for Friday 11/17/23

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

Butler at Michigan State

Michigan State -8.5 (-120)

The Butler Bulldogs will make the trek to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans tonight.

MSU couldn't have had a worse start to the season, dropping their season opener in an upset loss to the James Madison Dukes and failing to keep up with a top-tier Duke Blue Devils team.

The spread is indicative of their 1-2 record, but tonight, I think we see the Spartans start to play like the team that came into this season in the fourth spot of the AP Top 25.

If there is ever a time to excuse losses, MSU's season opener might be a good place to start. James Madison is a better team than originally given credit for and have since secured their first national ranking in the program's history. But more than that is the fact that the Spartans went 1-20 from the three-point line in that loss. It can't get much worse than that.

The fact that MSU was able to hang on into overtime and lose by a mere three points despite being outscored 24-3 from behind the arc says a lot about how this game would have turned out had the Spartans pieced together a three-point percentage (3P%) above 5.0%.

Last season, MSU was stellar from downtown, clocking out with a 39.3 3P% (third-best). The Spartans returned 78.1% of their minutes this season, including four starters, so it is fair to say that their 16.0% 3P% (worst) through three games probably isn't going to stick. Regression to last year's numbers will come, and with regression will come blowouts -- the discrepancy in shooting percentages is the main component keeping their competitors in games thus far.

Butler, meanwhile, touts a 3-0 record and has yet to play in a close game, but they won't be put on the map in a major way until they prove themself against a team with notoriety.

According to KenPom, Butler ranks 49th in adjusted defensive efficiency, whereas Michigan State ranks 15th. MSU has the fifth-worst luck rating, so look for their bad fortune to be turned around tonight.

By BartTorvik's model, the Spartans rank 17th while the Bulldogs rank 89th.

Despite having a losing record, MSU still has a positive point differential.

Former MSU bench player Pierre Brooks is among the standouts on this Butler team, but I think Tyson Walker and company will ensure this revenge game doesn't go in Brooks' favor.

Kansas State at Providence

Kansas State Moneyline (-104)

The Kansas State Wildcats will square off with the Providence Friars in the Baha Mar Hoops semifinal game, and I think the Wildcats will control the pace and come out on top in this close-projected game.

It's clear why we essentially have a pick'em with this game (-104 and -115 moneylines) -- KenPom ranks Kansas State 40th and Providence 46th while BartTorvik ranks Kansas State 44th and Providence 38th.

Providence (3-0) boasts a better record than Kansas State (2-1), but the Wildcats fell to a then-21st-ranked (now 16th) USC team, whereas Providence's best win came against a lackluster Wisconsin Badgers squad.

The Wildcats ever so slightly edge out Providence in adjusted defensive rating, with the teams sitting at the 42nd and 43rd spots.

However, Kansas State does fare better in adjusted offensive efficiency, ranking 46th to Providence's 62nd.

Transfer guard Tylor Perry has given the Wildcats' new-look team a major boost this season. He's averaging 20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. Cam Carter rounds out their dual-threat backcourt (19.0 points per game), and transfer forward Arthur Kaluma has been of help in the post despite struggling with a poor shooting percentage (24.0% to last year's 42.3%).

Devin Carter, Bryce Hopkins, and Jayden Pierre are among the notable players on Providence, though they've yet to face a team as good on defense as Kansas State, so we could see that solid 47.6% team FG% go down tonight.

Pace should be a deciding factor in this game, and it seems Kansas State is capable of controlling the narrative in this regard. They play at the 29th-fastest adjusted tempo, whereas Providence ranks 296th in adjusted tempo. If the Wildcats can set the pace and force the Friars to play a faster game than they are used to, this would give Kansas State enough edge to make me side with them tonight.

Belmont at Arizona

Under 170.5 (-105)

The Belmont Bruins will trepidatiously walk into Arizona Wildcats' territory in a game that is expected to be a blowout (24.5-point spread).

Third-ranked Arizona has scored an average of 99.0 points through three games, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they hung 100-plus on Belmont's head. But I still think the under is the right play here.

Arizona has allowed opponents to put up 63.7 points per game. One of these games was against a top-ranked Duke team -- on the road -- that ranks 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Wildcats' non-ranked opponents have each put up 59 points, and I think that's the range where we will see the Bruins end up tonight.

Belmont's 153rd rank in adjusted defense efficiency is higher than that of Arizona's previous non-ranked opponents, but the Bruins' weak competition thus far has allowed them to put up a team 51.0% FG% -- Arizona allows only a 38.0% FG%.

Arizona will control this game, but even in the two games where they beat non-ranked teams by an average of 50.5 points, the game totals still averaged out to 168.5, and Belmont has a decent enough defensive rank (in comparison) to keep this one under. Even if the Wildcats hold up their end of the bargain with their implied 97.5-point team total, I don't think Belmont can score just as many as Duke did (73) against Arizona last week.

Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.