Champions League Betting Picks for Tuesday 11/28/23: PSG Set for Revenge Against Newcastle
We're into the fifth games of the group stage, and things are taking shape on who is likely to advance to the knockout rounds.
When looking at the Champions League soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this slate?
Champions League Betting: Tuesday 11/28/23
Antwerp at Shakhtar Donetsk (12:45 PM ET)
Shakhtar ML (+110)
Most of the focus in Group H goes to Barcelona and Porto, but this match could kick us off to a winning start on the day.
Shakhtar are experienced in European competitions over the years, having been one of the most successful teams in Ukraine. They still have a chance to qualify for the next round, as they are just three points behind Barcelona and Porto -- and one of those two is guaranteed to drop points as they face each other on Tuesday.
Antwerp, meanwhile, are making their first appearance in Europe since 1957. Things haven't gone well for them in the group stage. They have yet to pick up a point in any of the four matches and have been outscored 14-3 in those games.
These teams played in the second game of this group. Shakhtar won that game 3-2 away from home and won the expected goals (xG) battle 2.3 to 1.8, via FBRef's model.
Shakhtar were able to beat Barcelona at home in their last Champions League game. They aren't able to play games at their real home, but they've made the Volksparkstadion in Germany their temporary home for European games this season. That seems to be going fairly well for them, as they've won both home matches thus far.
Shakhtar are a better side with much more experience in the Champions League, so I'll back them at +110 to win this game.
Newcastle United at Paris St. Germain (3 PM ET)
PSG -1.5 (+176)
In the first meeting between these two clubs earlier in this UCL campaign, Newcastle had a famous result. They beat the Parisians 4-1 at home, and St. James' Park was absolutely bouncing.
That's the only win Newcastle have had in the Champions League this season, and they find themselves at the bottom of the group of death. They actually weren't even super impressive in that win over PSG, as the xG was even at 0.9 apiece.
Newcastle haven't been in great form of late -- with a slew of injuries and suspensions catching up to them. They beat Chelsea on Saturday, but before that, they lost two matches in a row away from home in which they created a combined 1.1 xG, with one of the matches being against struggling Bournemouth.
PSG are in their typical dominant form in Ligue 1. They sit on top of the table and have by far the best xG differential. They sit in second place in Group F, so they still have incentive to win to qualify for the next round and to try to get the top spot for an easier knockout-round matchup.
Newcastle have won just one game away from home in the EPL -- when they beat Sheffield United 8-0. They've also failed to win both Champions League away matches. PSG has won their last six home games by multiple goals, including against tough opposition like Milan, Marseille and Dortmund.
Sandro Tonali's absence looms large for Newcastle. He was an important midfield player with Champions League experience. I think Newcastle could be overwhelmed in this game, so I like PSG -1.5 at these +176 odds.
Antoine Griezmann to Score or Assist (+110): Griezmann is having a renaissance season at Atletico Madrid, with 10 goal contributions in 13 La Liga matches. He also has four goals in four Champions League games. In what the betting odds have as an evenly matched game against Feyenoord, Griezmann should have a good chance to score or assist. He's constantly involved in the team's attack and could score a penalty if the chance arises.
Julian Brandt to Score or Assist (+230): The same type of bet for our second player prop but at much longer odds. Brandt has nine goal contributions for Dortmund in the Bundesliga this season. Dortmund may be underdogs at Milan, but they'll have a chance to play well. Milan haven't been in great form in Serie A, winning just one of their last five matches. They've also conceded the 11th-most xG per game in the league, much worse than their third-place position would suggest. Dortmund will likely be able to score in this game, and Brandt should have a good chance to be involved in that goal.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.