Celtics vs. Heat: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 4

In retrospect, this Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat series has turned out exactly how we should have expected thus far.

We saw a pair of games where the Celtics, the long favorite to win it all (+115 NBA Championship odds), sailed to a 20-point victory. And then, of course, we saw a nervy and well-coached Heat team manage a valiant dub in the face of those occasional lackluster defensive efforts from Boston.

Miami remains short-staffed with Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, and Josh Richardson all sidelined. Despite stealing Game 2, they still own +4000 odds to win this series.

Can the C's send things back to Boston and wrap up this series sooner rather than later, or will the Heat make things interesting at home?

Let's check out the odds and see which side we should back.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Celtics-Heat Betting Odds

Date and Time: Monday, April 29th at 7:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Celtics -10.5 (-110)

Total: 203.5

Moneyline:

• Celtics: -520
• Heat: +400

Celtics vs. Heat Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

• Celtics:
  • nERD: 80.8 (1st)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 122.0 (1st)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.2 (2nd)
  • Pace: 97.7 (19th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 41-36-5
• Heat:
  • nERD: 56.2 (15th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 113.1 (21st)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.8 (5th)
  • Pace: 96.7 (29th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 40-40-5

Celtics vs. Heat Best Bet

Celtics -10.5 (-110)

All things considered, I think we're getting a fair deal in backing the Celtics against a Butler-less Miami team.

The Celtics went 3-0 against the Heat in the regular season and grabbed a pair of 20-point victories in Game 1 and 3 of this series. Based on everything we've seen from them, and the numbers, this is how the Celtics should be operating in the first round.

Boston's +11.7 net rating (next-best team's rating was +7.3) this season put them in the history books and pales in comparison to Miami's +1.8 rating (17th).

They own the ninth-best ATS record in the league and come in with a clean injury report, unlike Miami, who has lost their best player known for showing out in the playoffs.

But, if the numbers tell us that Boston is the best, then what happened in Game 2?

Well, a lapse seemed inevitable for a team that is equally as good at basketball as they are at keeping fans on their toes. The Celtics may have gotten the funny business out of the way -- at least for this series -- but there's more to the story with that Game 2 home loss.

In Game 2, the Heat shot the three-ball at a dominant 53.5% clip (23-for-43) while Boston shot a more realistic 37.5% from downtown (12-for-32). Miami's 23 made threes tied a playoff franchise record and was just two shy of an NBA playoff record. Good luck winning against that.

The Heat actually managed a better three-point percentage (32.1%) than Boston (29.7%) in the C's 104-84 Game 3 victory, but the latter took nine more attempts from long range.

Outshooting teams from behind the arc has been key to Boston's success. They know that and have the ability to control that factor tonight.

And beyond shooting a lot of threes, we should expect the Celtics to drain them at a higher clip this time around. After struggling with a 29.7% 3P% in Game 3, we should see some positive regression from the team that shoots at a 38.8% 3P% (second-best in the NBA).

Boston is 58-7 when shooting the three-ball above 32.0% while they are 6-11 when shooting below this clip (per Sean Grande). That aforementioned 20-point victory amid a below-average shooting night shows the true discrepancy between these teams.

Erik Spoelstra is known for getting the absolute best out of his group, but with a current team comprised of few more than Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, I think the Celtics can take care of business and cover tonight's spread.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.