Canadian Open Best Bets for the Men's and Women's Finals

The Canadian Open -- otherwise known as the National Bank Open -- wraps up on Monday with the men's and women's finals.

The men's side features Andrey Rublev taking on Alexei Popyrin while we have an all-American women's title match between Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova.

Where can we find betting value in these two matchups?

Canadian Open Best Bets

Jessica Pegula vs. Amanda Anisimova

Pegula -3.5 Games (-110)

While Pegula has never quite been able to get over the hump in majors, that hasn't been the case in Canada. Not only is she the defending champion, but she owns a 16-2 career record at the National Bank Open, reaching at least the semifinals across all four years she's played in the main draw.

Pegula hasn't dropped a set on her way to this year's final, most recently knocking off Diana Shnaider (6-4, 6-3) in a semifinal match where she faced just three break points. Shnaider has been playing well, too, as she defeated top seed Coco Gauff in the round of 16 by straight sets and was fresh off earning a silver medal in doubles at the Olympics and winning a singles title in Budapest.

Although Pegula is coming off disappointing performances at the Olympics and Wimbledon, she tends to be at her best on hard courts, owning a 76.1% win rate on the surface over the last 52 weeks.

Anisimova is a surprise entry into these finals, coming into the tournament with just a 12-9 record in 2024 and ranked outside the top 100. It's worth remembering the American stepped away from tennis for the better part of the 2023 season before returning this January, and this will be her first final since the beginning of 2022.

Amanda has been in good form here, getting past four top-20 players, including world No. 3 Aryna Sabalenka. Still, closing the deal against last year's champion will be a tall order for someone who's otherwise had mixed results this season. Further, Jessica owns a 2-0 record in their head-to-head, and one of those wins came earlier this year.

Tennis Abstract's model forecasts a 66.3% win probability for Pegula, which is close to her implied odds as a -220 favorite (68.8%). Massey Ratings is even more bullish, predicting her as the victor 87% of the time.

While Anisimova has played well, Pegula's positive track record and experience at this event should win out, and we should like the favorite's chances of covering this spread.

Andrey Rublev vs. Alexei Popyrin

Rublev 2-0 Sets (+100)

While Rublev's 32-15 record in 2024 looks pretty good on paper, it's been a rollercoaster campaign that's included two separate four-match losing streaks. And yet, he has the opportunity to notch his second Masters 1000 title of the year, and it will be against an opponent who was ranked outside the top 60 before this tournament.

Rublev has dropped just one set in Canada, and that lone instance came against world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. Although Sinner was returning from injury and may not have been 100%, besting an opponent of Sinner's caliber has to be a confidence-booster for a player who's been open about his recent mental struggles on court.

Although Rublev had to face the top seed, Popyrin's draw has been the harder path overall, with four of his five opponents ranked inside the top 20. The Australian has survived two three-setters and has already played four tie breaks.

Popyrin deserves credit for making it through, but he entered the event with just a 14-15 record in 2024 after mixed-to-poor results over the clay and grass seasons.

Tennis Abstract projects Rublev for a 76.0% win probability while Massey Ratings is even higher at 82%. Despite his ups and downs in 2024, the Russian could be back on the way up after skipping the Olympics for a mental breather, and he's both the better and more rested player in this matchup. Getting even odds for a straight-sets win feels like a good value.

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