Can the Buffalo Bills Overcome Offseason Departures and Post 11-Plus Wins?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
Can the Buffalo Bills Overcome Offseason Departures and Post 11-Plus Wins?

The Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East for four seasons in a row, and have made the playoffs for five years consecutively. Unfortunately for them, things haven't gone well in the playoffs, and they have yet to reach the Super Bowl.

They had a number of changes during the offseason, which makes them an interesting team to pay attention to heading into 2024. Some headline subtractions from their roster include Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde.

They needed to make some additions to their wide receiver group after losing arguably their two best. They drafted Keon Coleman at the beginning of the second round, and signed Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, and Mack Hollins. These receivers don't exactly inspire a ton of confidence, but Josh Allen is capable of elevating some of the talent around him.

So how will the Bills fare this season? You can see their win total and all NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Buffalo Bills 2024 Win Total Odds

Buffalo Bills Over/Under 10.5 Wins

  • Over: +112
  • Under: -138

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -164
Odds to Win the AFC East : +160
Odds to Win the AFC : +700
Super Bowl Odds: +1300 (Tied for third-best)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

  • New Defensive Coordinator Bobby Babich
  • Joe Brady first offseason as Offensive Coordinator (Hired During Week 11 in 2023)

Why the Bills Could Win Over 10.5 Games

  • Full season with Joe Brady at OC
  • New receivers gel with Josh Allen
  • Defense remains strong

After a disappointing loss in Week 10, the Bills installed Joe Brady at offensive coordinator after the team was sputtering under Ken Dorsey. They had just fallen to a 5-5 record, and their playoff hopes were looking bleak.

This change did make a difference, as the team won six of their remaining seven games -- including the last five. They scored at least 20 points in every game and over 30 four times.

They switched to a more run-based approach, and it led to a poor end to the season for the receivers. This could be a reason why both Diggs and Davis are no longer on the team.

The new weapons the Bills acquired will need to make some plays in these guys' absence. Keon Coleman is an exciting rookie, Curtis Samuel is a gadget-type of receiver. If they can somehow get a tune out of the other receivers they acquired, their passing game could be a strength.

The defense may have lost some players from the unit that was ranked seventh by numberFire's metrics, but some of the losses are a bit overblown. Tre'Davious White missed most of last season after tearing his Achilles in Week 4. They added Mike Edwards at safety, to make up for the loss of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Other players like Shaq Lawson, Linval Joseph and Josh Norman didn't play huge roles on the team and can be replaced easily.

The scheme under Sean McDermott has been good enough to keep the defense as an above-average unit, and it should be able to keep them afloat this season.

Why the Bills Could Win Under 10.5 Games

  • Departures too much to overcome
  • Tough schedule
  • Receiving options don't seem elite

While there is an argument that the departures are somewhat overblown, losing this many players in one offseason could be difficult. Their offensive line ended up as a strength last season, but now they lost starting center Mitch Morse. Morse had the second-best pass-blocking grade on the offensive line last season, according to PFF.

The losses on the defensive line may prove the most costly. The Bills were fourth in the NFL in sacks and sixth in pressure rate in 2023 yet only blitzed 23.5% of the time. They wanted to generate pressure from their front four, but now without Lawson, Joseph, Leonard Floyd and Poona Ford, they are a bit thinner at that position.

The AFC East should be one of the tougher divisions in football this season. The Miami Dolphins ran the Bills to the last game of the regular season for the division title before injuries caught up with them. The New York Jets are expected to be much better if Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, and the New England Patriots should have a better offense this season.

Overall, the Bills' opponents have an average win total of 8.79. That's the fifth-highest in the league. Winning a division always makes your schedule tougher, and the Bills will have to play the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers.

While there can be some hope for the Bills' new receivers, there has to be some level of concern. Josh Allen's game really took the next step when Diggs joined the team in 2020. Without him, there is no clear number-one option on the target hierarchy.

None of the players brought in have the talent of Diggs, who was good in nearly every area of the field. Most of the players brought in are specialists in one aspect of receiving but can't match Diggs' all-around utility.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling will probably play a similar role to Gabe Davis, but Davis was much more productive. Keon Coleman didn't have a spotless prospect profile, either -- especially after running a 4.61 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine.

Allen needs to mesh with several new targets, which could take time and hinder the Bills' passing game. With their difficult schedule, this could cause problems in the win column.

Looking for other NFL win totals or the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.