F1

British Grand Prix Betting Picks: Can Lando Norris Claim a Home Victory?

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
British Grand Prix Betting Picks: Can Lando Norris Claim a Home Victory?

The jockeying back and forth between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris has finally hit a peak.

Last week, the two collided while battling for the win in Austria, sending Norris to an early exit and George Russell to the winner's circle. With how close Verstappen and Norris had been, a convergence like that was inevitable.

As we get more and more data on these two, it should be no surprise that they're converging in my betting model, as well. In fact, they're nearly identical for this week's pre-practice sims for Silverstone.

Here's how the sims see things now that we have a full six-race sample of an upgraded McLaren.

Driver
Win
Podium
Top 6
Points
Max Verstappen36.6%82.7%86.8%86.8%
Lando Norris35.5%83.2%86.9%86.9%
George Russell7.7%37.1%83.3%86.7%
Charles Leclerc6.1%31.1%81.2%86.5%
Lewis Hamilton5.5%26.3%79.7%87.0%
Oscar Piastri4.6%23.5%77.8%86.6%
Carlos Sainz3.3%13.7%65.0%86.4%
View Full Table

This may feel aggressive, given Verstappen was at 58.9% to win in last week's pre-practice sims. But we got yet another data point showing that McLaren's early-season form was no longer relevant, and in that six-race sample, Norris has had faster median lap times than Verstappen half the time. These two are going to be magnets for each other, both in the sims and on the race track.

As a result, Norris is a value to win this week in FanDuel Sportsbook's F1 betting odds. He's +250 there, which translates to 28.6% implied. With my model putting him at 35.5%, it looks like now is a good time to shift our focus back to Norris at his home track.

The other drivers the sims are higher on than the betting markets are Charles Leclerc, Yuki Tsunoda, and Alex Albon.

For Leclerc, the value is in his outright (+2800) and podium (+350) odds. This may feel odd, given Mercedes has topped Ferrari in all three races since receiving an upgraded front wing. But the race pace for Leclerc was really good in Barcelona, and his teammate, Carlos Sainz, split the two Mercedes drivers in Austria after Leclerc suffered damage on the opening lap.

I prefer the podium market for Leclerc in order to avoid destruction at the hands of Verstappen and Norris, but overall, I don't mind this as a buy-low spot on Ferrari's top driver.

For Tsunoda, the past two races with an upgraded RB have been brutal with finishes of 14th and 19th. However, teammate Daniel Ricciardo scored points in Austria, and Tsunoda has generally been quicker than Ricciardo this year. The model has him at 36.4% to score points, up from 27.0% implied at +270. Similar to Leclerc, I don't mind hitting Tsunoda in the market at current prices.

With Albon, I'm more hesitant, even with his top-10 odds relatively long at +750. He has scored points just once this year, and that came in Monaco, which isn't very pertinent data for this week.

Additionally, other than Montreal and Monaco, Albon's qualifying pace has been lackluster, especially of late. Thus, even though he's a value in my model, Albon's unlikely to wind up on my betslip prior to practice.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.