AFC South Betting: The Jaguars Are in the Driver's Seat

With the draft completed and training camps a ways away, this is a rare downtime for the NFL, but that doesn't mean we have to take a break from the action.

Via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, we can dive into the futures market. In addition to having NFL division winner odds, FanDuel Sportsbook also has NFL win total odds and odds to make the playoffs for all 32 teams.

Let's take a look at the AFC South.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5 (-150 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -192
Odds to Win the AFC South: -160
Odds to Win the AFC: +1500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +2500 (10th-best)

What a difference a year makes.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had one of the biggest turnarounds of 2022, and the turnaround didn't start until the middle of the season. After having the NFL's worst record in 2021 and opening 2022 with a 2-6 mark, the Jags rallied, winning seven of their final nine games en route to an AFC South title and a Wild Card Round win over the Los Angeles Chargers, with the Jaguars' campaign ultimately ending in a Divisional Round defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs.

After a second-year jump from Trevor Lawrence in the first season with Doug Pederson at the help, the Jags head into 2023 as the clear favorite in the AFC South. Jacksonville's -160 odds to win the division are tied with the Chiefs for the second-best division-title odds of any squad.

Some of that is due to how bad the rest of the AFC South should be outside of the Jaguars. The three teams with the longest odds to win the AFC are the three squads that make up the rest of this division. The Jags' win total over/under is 9.5 with a -150 price on the over, per the NFL win total odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and the second-highest win total over/under for another AFC South squad is 7.5 (with -115 juice on the under).

That's not to say the Jags aren't pretty darn good. Jacksonville's offense jumped to eighth in yards per play in 2022, and the Jaguars return a lot of their key pieces on that side of the ball. The biggest hurdle for this team to become one of the elites in a loaded AFC -- their +1500 odds to win the AFC rank eighth -- will be improving on defense, specifically versus the pass, after Jacksonville gave up the 10th-highest clip in net yards gained per pass attempt (6.4) a year ago.

With the rest of the division either starting a rookie quarterback or trying to replace their current signal-caller with a rookie, the Jags have a chance to cruise to an AFC South crown as long as they can keep Lawrence healthy.

Tennessee Titans 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 7.5 (-115 on the under)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +245
Odds to Win the AFC South: +360
Odds to Win the AFC: +5500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +75000 (fourth-worst)

In 2022, the Tennessee Titans had the opposite year that Jacksonville did. They entered the season as one of the favorites in the AFC South and started a blistering 7-3 before cratering down the stretch, losing seven consecutive games and suffering from poor quarterback play once Ryan Tannehill went out injured. The brutal finish to the year snapped a streak of three straight seasons with a playoff appearance.

The Titans head into this year looking more like a team staring down the barrel of a full rebuild rather than one with legit playoff aspirations -- something that is reflected in the Titans' +245 odds to make the postseason -- and Tennessee may have taken the first significant step toward said rebuild when it selected quarterback Will Levis in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Tannehill was actually sixth in adjusted yards per attempt (7.8) last year among qualified signal-callers, but QBR didn't view him as favorably, slotting Tannehill 24th (49.1). He mustered a mere 13 passing scores in 12 starts. It was hardly all on Tannehill, though. Tennessee rolled out an underwhelming pass-catching group that sorely missed A.J. Brown's explosive playmaking ability, and the Titans' offensive line was the league's worst, per PFF.

Tennessee was the AFC's No. 1 seed in 2021, proving it could win with good defense and a solid offense. But they took a step back on both sides of the ball last year as the Titans were just 22nd in yards per play offensively while permitting the 16th-most yards per play on D.

The Titans used free agency to fill some of their holes on the offensive line, but on paper, this looks like -- at best -- a pedestrian team. There's a reason Tennessee is +360 to win the AFC South, and their division title odds would likely be much longer if they were in any other division in the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 6.5 (-118 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +350
Odds to Win the AFC South: +550
Odds to Win the AFC: +6500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +10000 (third-worst)

It's hard to find many positives in the Indianapolis Colts' 4-12-1 season in 2022. Possibly the biggest bright spot was that they were bad enough that Indianapolis got the fourth pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, giving the Colts a golden opportunity to finally do a hard reset at quarterback, and they took advantage of the chance by drafting Anthony Richardson.

The Matt Ryan experiment was a mess as Ryan ranked 27th in adjusted yards per attempt (6.0). The combination of a meh Colts' offensive line -- a group PFF graded 18th in the NFL -- and Ryan being unable to move resulted in Ryan taking 38 sacks in 12 starts.

In terms of play style, Richardson is a direct opposite from Ryan, and while the jury is still out on Richardson's passing ability, mobility won't be an issue. A majority of the Colts' 2023 fortunes will be tied to how quickly Richardson can develop, but Gardner Minshew should be a serviceable bridge quarterback if he's needed. Plus, even if Richardson struggles in Year 1, he'll at least add some excitement to an offense that desperately needs it, and the threat of Richardson running could help Jonathan Taylor get back on track.

Indy was a respectable 11th defensively last year in yards per play allowed, so defense wasn't the issue, although the Colts lost some talent on that unit this offseason by trading away Stephon Gilmore and likely losing Yannick Ngakoue in free agency. They did, however, sign Samson Ebukam to replunish their defensive line, and of their 11 draft picks after Richardson -- yes, 11 -- 8 were spent on defense or offensive line.

A lot would need to go right for the Colts to mount a serious challenge in the AFC South this year, which is reflected in their +350 odds to win the division. Developing Richardson -- a task that will mainly fall to first-year coach Shane Steichen -- and getting him NFL reps is likely the main goal for the coming season after Richardson logged only 10 games with 20-plus pass attempts in college.

Houston Texans 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 6.5 (-144 on the under)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +520
Odds to Win the AFC South: +800
Odds to Win the AFC: +8500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +18000 (worst)

The general gist of what I just said about the Colts also applies to the Houston Texans. While Houston will want to win this fall, especially since the Texans don't own their first-round pick in the 2024 draft, they'll likely have to settle for getting their rookie quarterback experience and gearing up for 2024.

Houston bottomed out last year and went 3-13-1. One of their three wins was a Week 18 triumph over the Colts, a victory that resulted in Houston losing the No. 1 pick. They still got a top quarterback in the draft, though, picking up C.J. Stroud with the second selection, and the Texans then swung a deal to move up to No. 3 to take defensive lineman Will Anderson Jr.

In Houston's dream scenario, those two players will give them a cornerstone on each side of the ball and be franchise pieces they can build around. There's a lot to like about Stroud, who finished in the top three in the nation in QBR in each of his final two seasons with Ohio State.

As you would guess for a team that won three games last year, Houston entered this offseason with several areas to address. The Texans' offensive line ranked 26th in 2022, per PFF, and their defense surrendered the eighth-most yards per play (5.7).

In addition to the pieces Houston added in the draft, the Texans were also busy in free agency, signing tight end Dalton Schultz, running back Devin Singletary, linebacker Denzel Perryman, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, wideout Robert Woods and safety Jimmie Ward.

All in all, there's a lot of new talent in the building for the Texans, and we haven't even gotten to their new coach, DeMeco Ryans, who coordinated the San Francisco 49ers' defense last year -- the league's best by DVOA -- and was named the 2022 Assistant Coach of the Year.

The arrow is pointing up in Houston, but it would be a heck of a one-year turnaround for them to push for an AFC South title in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.